KS: KSN News/SUSA- Trump +11

[Fargobison]

Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 7
Stein 2

http://ksn.com/2016/10/18/ksn-news-poll-continues-to-show-strong-support-for-trump-in-kansas/

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Hmmm... so he's back in good shape on the Plains.  But if Evangelicals have fully come home, what is happening to Texas?

Well considering that Romney won Kansas by 21, I'm not sure if 11 counts as "good shape"...

However Trump has been generally weak in this state for whatever reason and I think he's been in low double digits here from the start.

[dspNY]

Hmmm... so he's back in good shape on the Plains.  But if Evangelicals have fully come home, what is happening to Texas?

Well considering that Romney won Kansas by 21, I'm not sure if 11 counts as "good shape"...

However Trump has been generally weak in this state for whatever reason and I think he's been in low double digits here from the start.

Actually it makes perfect sense. Taking out home state candidate effects in past general elections, Kansas is about 4-5 points to the right of Texas. Add in some normally Republican Latinos in TX defecting due to Trump's racially tinged rhetoric, it would explain why Texas is only a 3-5 point race

[cinyc]

Hmmm... so he's back in good shape on the Plains.  But if Evangelicals have fully come home, what is happening to Texas?

Well considering that Romney won Kansas by 21, I'm not sure if 11 counts as "good shape"...

However Trump has been generally weak in this state for whatever reason and I think he's been in low double digits here from the start.

538's Kansas average is influenced by (likely) bad Google Consumer Surveys polls that show Clinton with a double-digit lead in the state.  The reason the polls are likely bad is because a good number of IP addresses with no known US location are currently geolocated to the middle of a lake west of Wichita.   People from those IP addresses don't live in Kansas, but are being likely being polled by GCS as such - at least in their national surveys.

[Maxwell]

Hmmm... so he's back in good shape on the Plains.  But if Evangelicals have fully come home, what is happening to Texas?

Well considering that Romney won Kansas by 21, I'm not sure if 11 counts as "good shape"...

However Trump has been generally weak in this state for whatever reason and I think he's been in low double digits here from the start.

the urbanish areas HATE Trump. Yoder's district in particular is trending hard against The Donald.

[NOVA Green]

FWIW....

Polling of Texas by regions of the state, actually show Trump doing well in NorthTex, compared to Houston/EastTex, where his numbers look like he will lose bigley....

I was never able to get a complete breakdown of counties of that Texas poll to look at PVIs, but it is not incompatible to see both a collapse of Republican GE support in suburban and heavily Anglo counties in TX and KS, while also not seeing as big a swing on rural counties of the Great Plains with fewer huge Metro population centers.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Hmmm... so he's back in good shape on the Plains.  But if Evangelicals have fully come home, what is happening to Texas?

Well considering that Romney won Kansas by 21, I'm not sure if 11 counts as "good shape"...

However Trump has been generally weak in this state for whatever reason and I think he's been in low double digits here from the start.

538's Kansas average is influenced by (likely) bad Google Consumer Surveys polls that show Clinton with a double-digit lead in the state.  The reason the polls are likely bad is because a good number of IP addresses with no known US location are currently geolocated to the middle of a lake west of Wichita.   People from those IP addresses don't live in Kansas, but are being likely being polled by GCS as such - at least in their national surveys.

Still though, even taking those Google polls out of the 538 average it comes out to roughly a 12 point lead.


I guess it makes sense that Kansas would go against Trump considering how badly he lost to Cruz in the caucus.

[dspNY]

FWIW....

Polling of Texas by regions of the state, actually show Trump doing well in NorthTex, compared to Houston/EastTex, where his numbers look like he will lose bigley....

I was never able to get a complete breakdown of counties of that Texas poll to look at PVIs, but it is not incompatible to see both a collapse of Republican GE support in suburban and heavily Anglo counties in TX and KS, while also not seeing as big a swing on rural counties of the Great Plains with fewer huge Metro population centers.

It's got to be hard for those areas in rural TX to swing Republican since they're already so heavily Republican to begin with

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Kansas President by Survey USA on 2016-10-15

Summary: D: 36%, R: 47%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details