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February 19, 2019, 06:09:37 am
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Author Topic: Arizona Republic: Clinton up 4 points in AZ  (Read 2211 times)
OneJ
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« on: October 19, 2016, 03:17:14 am »

Hillary: 39%.      (I rounded the values with decimals)
Trump: 34%
Johnson: 6%
Stein: <1%

Article Link: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/92339110/
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matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 03:24:33 am »

Hispanics voting against Trump may very well give Arizona to Hillary....
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peterthlee
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 03:26:49 am »

Brilliant poll!
Trump's Drumpf's retreat is in full swing
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 03:34:31 am »

Seems like another junky poll, but when all junky polls show the same result...
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 03:55:44 am »

Can we get a decent poll here?
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 04:05:17 am »

1. Hispanic hostility to Donald Trump
2. Mormons rejecting the personal behavior and sleazy business activities of Trump
3. Well-educated people who bucked the D trend nationwide from R to D (see also Georgia and Texas)
4. People moving in from California and bringing their political values with them

Of course there is overlap.
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2016, 05:20:14 am »

Can we get a decent poll here?

Yeah, agreed.

Then again, the national polls all show a big Clinton lead which so far doesn't seem to have materialized in a huge shift in the swing states. There must be a biggish swing happening somewhere.

Like, what are the Trump +8-10 states in this election? Arizona I guess is one of them?
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2016, 06:07:27 am »

Can we get a decent poll here?

Yeah, agreed.

Then again, the national polls all show a big Clinton lead which so far doesn't seem to have materialized in a huge shift in the swing states. There must be a biggish swing happening somewhere

Like, what are the Trump +8-10 states in this election? Arizona I guess is one of them?
Texas.
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2016, 06:17:32 am »

When leaners are included, Clinton takes a 43-38 lead (43.3% to 37.8%)
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mark_twain
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2016, 06:35:29 am »

Great poll!
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 06:38:31 am »

Nice to see, but WAY WAY too many undecideds.
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 06:49:21 am »

New Poll: Arizona President by Arizona Republic on 2016-10-15

Summary: D: 39%, R: 34%, U: 21%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2016, 07:31:00 am »

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2016/10/19/october-2016-poll-data/

Am I reading this right?

White
Clinton 42
Trump 42

Maricopa
Clinton 46
Trump 38

Pima
Clinton 57
Trump 26

Rest of Arizona
Clinton 29
Trump 44

GOP
Clinton 15
Trump 60
« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 07:45:43 am by HillOfANight »Logged
HillOfANight
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2016, 07:47:04 am »

Nice to see, but WAY WAY too many undecideds.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/
Not sure, but it seems like they offer the "undecided" option, while most phone polls only offer the ballot candidates, and only record "undecided" if volunteered from the respondent. A huge chunk of GOP is undecided and they'll probably fall in line for Trump.
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2016, 08:35:58 am »

Hispanics voting against Trump may will very well give Arizona to Hillary....

Smiley
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2016, 09:07:25 am »

Well, Hillary leading by a fair margin is good, but I guess the high undecided number makes the poll at least questionable, if not useless. Polls with both candidates under 40% at this late stage of the campaign are difficult to assess.
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2016, 09:42:02 am »

Seems like another junky poll, but when all junky polls show the same result...
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2016, 11:38:59 am »

Seems like another junky poll, but when all junky polls show the same result...
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2016, 11:42:55 am »

Hispanics voting against Trump may very well give Arizona to Hillary....
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2016, 11:46:04 am »

Well I'll tell you, I've met several Clinton/McCain voters, one of which who called Trump an asshole and cited Trump's support for trickle down economics as a reason for not supporting him.

I guess 'Trumped up Trickle Down Economics' has had an effect.
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2016, 01:06:53 pm »

I do want a more reliable pollster to poll AZ, but it's looking very winnable for Hillary.
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2016, 01:09:06 pm »

Calling it now, the undecideds will break enough for Trump for him to carry this. If both candidates were up in the mid 40's then this would be something Clinton could actually win.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2016, 01:10:34 pm »

Calling it now, the undecideds will break enough for Trump for him to carry this. If both candidates were up in the mid 40's then this would be something Clinton could actually win.
Highly unlikely. I think Clinton's going to carry AZ by 2 or so points.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2016, 02:22:48 am »

There is either a huge typo with this poll or it's complete garbage. There's no way from party reg in Arizona that you could end up with a sample that has 168 Republicans 413 Democrats and 132 Independents. That in no way, shape or form represents the Arizona electorate.

You're also not going to get a self-identified in AZ that is going to be 174 R, 316 D and 218 I. The math just doesn't add up here where it would ever be 2-to-1. I think most of the polls that I have seen are R+, not D+ in the state.

I am not sure what they did on a reweigh (it's not disclosed as far as I can see), but I don't know how you conduct a poll and statistically get numbers which are that far off unless you happen to be oversampling Ds to get to a statistically significant number for some other research reason. They didn't disclose an intentional oversample as far as I can tell.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/
« Last Edit: October 20, 2016, 02:35:01 am by Seriously? »Logged
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2016, 02:28:51 am »

There is either a huge typo with this poll or it's complete garbage. There's no way from party reg in Arizona that you could end up with a sample that has 168 Republicans 413 Democrats and 132 Independents. That in no way, shape or form represents the Arizona electorate.

You're also not going to get a self-identified in AZ that is going to be 174 R, 316 D and 218 I. The math just doesn't add up here where it would ever be 2-to-1. I think most of the polls that I have seen are R+, not D+ in the state.

I am not sure what they did on a reweigh (it's not disclosed as far as I can see), but I don't know how you conduct a poll and statistically get numbers, which are that far off.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/
Likely a typo.
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