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Author Topic: VA - Tarrance Group / Chamber of Commerce (R): Clinton +9  (Read 1436 times)
psychprofessor
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« on: October 19, 2016, 06:57:23 am »
« edited: October 19, 2016, 09:47:50 am by psychprofessor »

http://pilotonline.com/news/government/nation/new-poll-showed-clinton-strong-in-virginia-population-centers/article_eb37ad6f-c5ef-5578-b13e-3bd490f10f78.html

New @VAChamber Virginia presidential poll results released today:

#Clinton 47%
#Trump 38%
#Johnson 3%

@CBS6
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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 08:38:47 am »

By all means, pump more millions into VA, Trump.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 08:41:42 am »

By all means, pump more millions into VA, Trump.

Does Trump have properties in VA?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 11:32:21 am »

the Republican internals rule moves this up to clinton +14
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 11:34:14 am »

Yep ..... I knew it ..... trump is wasting resources here.
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TC 25
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 11:42:29 am »

Makes  no sense to me why Trump is making a run at Virginia.  Put those resources into North Carolina.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2016, 11:43:06 am »

VA is Safe D. News at 11.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2016, 11:46:58 am »

It will be called as soon as the polls close.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2016, 11:51:20 am »

Makes  no sense to me why Trump is making a run at Virginia.  Put those resources into North Carolina.

Ground game is in your heart, silly
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2016, 11:52:30 am »

Dominating.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 01:16:44 pm »

It will be called as soon as the polls close.

It's still pretty unlikely that she leads in the very early returns.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 01:20:33 pm »

It will be called as soon as the polls close.

It's still pretty unlikely that she leads in the very early returns.

If she gets a big enough lead in the exit polls they will be able to call it. If not it could take awhile, just because of how slow NoVa is in counting.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2016, 08:51:54 pm »

It will be called as soon as the polls close.

It's still pretty unlikely that she leads in the very early returns.

I suspect they'll be able to call it based on the exit poll alone.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2016, 09:23:20 pm »

SAFE !
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2016, 09:51:28 pm »

Trump is using his advertising purchase in Virginia to advertise his new Trump Hotel in DC
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2016, 09:54:17 pm »

It will be called as soon as the polls close.

It's still pretty unlikely that she leads in the very early returns.

I suspect they'll be able to call it based on the exit poll alone.

I expect CNN to wait for returns due to their very cautious nature. The Fox Decision Desk will probably get an outright order to not call it immediately as they are a republican network who will be trying to spin the night for Trump as long as possible. MSNBC/ABC/CBS is an open question though.
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Lok
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2016, 04:51:43 am »

LOL
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republicanx
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2016, 12:05:46 pm »

trump had no chance in va because of vp pick which gave her a boost in the state.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2016, 12:08:46 pm »

trump had no chance in va because of vp pick which gave her a boost in the state.

Kaine pick has little to do with it. Trump is just an awful fit for VA. He has no appeal in the DC suburbs and college towns.

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Alcon
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2016, 12:31:06 pm »

trump had no chance in va because of vp pick which gave her a boost in the state.

Doubtful.  Like Yank says, Trump is a poor fit for Virginia.  High proportion of white Republican-leaners with bachelor's degrees relative to non-college-educated Obama voters.  Vice Presidential nominees don't seem to have much of an effect unless they're spectacularly popular.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2016, 12:41:16 pm »

trump had no chance in va because of vp pick which gave her a boost in the state.

Doubtful.  Like Yank says, Trump is a poor fit for Virginia.  High proportion of white Republican-leaners with bachelor's degrees relative to non-college-educated Obama voters.  Vice Presidential nominees don't seem to have much of an effect unless they're spectacularly popular.

True, but Kaine is popular enough that he certainly won't hurt Clinton in VA, and he might help increase her margin slightly (not that it will make the difference).  In contrast, Pence is unpopular enough in Indiana that he probably won't help Trump at all and may even hurt him a bit there.
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Alcon
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2016, 12:43:22 pm »

trump had no chance in va because of vp pick which gave her a boost in the state.

Doubtful.  Like Yank says, Trump is a poor fit for Virginia.  High proportion of white Republican-leaners with bachelor's degrees relative to non-college-educated Obama voters.  Vice Presidential nominees don't seem to have much of an effect unless they're spectacularly popular.

True, but Kaine is popular enough that he certainly won't hurt Clinton in VA, and he might help increase her margin slightly (not that it will make the difference).  In contrast, Pence is unpopular enough in Indiana that he probably won't help Trump at all and may even hurt him a bit there.

agreed
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2016, 05:45:44 pm »

It will be called as soon as the polls close.

I remember election night 2008, it was pretty late probably around 10-11 pm est. The results on CNN had Obama up by 50,000 votes or so in NC but behind in VA. This was before I knew about how insanely late NOVA reports its votes. The idea that Obama would win previously red NC and lose the much more winnable VA seemed odd. But the late NOVA returns sealed the deal for Obama. The same happened in 2012 with Romney pulling ahead early, but I knew that NOVA reports late and Obama would probably win.
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2016, 05:49:05 pm »

It will be called as soon as the polls close.

I remember election night 2008, it was pretty late probably around 10-11 pm est. The results on CNN had Obama up by 50,000 votes or so in NC but behind in VA. This was before I knew about how insanely late NOVA reports its votes. The idea that Obama would win previously red NC and lose the much more winnable VA seemed odd. But the late NOVA returns sealed the deal for Obama. The same happened in 2012 with Romney pulling ahead early, but I knew that NOVA reports late and Obama would probably win.

When states are called immediately after polls close, it's because of exit polls, so if Clinton wins Virginia by enough, the geographical distribution of those votes won't matter.
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Dumbo
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2016, 06:13:07 pm »
« Edited: October 22, 2016, 06:15:02 pm by Dumbo »

Tim Kaine was a bad choice, Virginia ist safe D anyway, he doesn`t look
presidential, he lost the debate against the unpopular Indiana Governor
Mike Pence, he wasn`t able to follow the most important debate rule not to interrupt,
I think he is even worse than Dan Quale, not a good sign, in 4 years Clinton
is 5 years older than George H.W. Bush was when he lost the `92 election,
if Clinton had retired in 2020 a more presidential acting and looking VP would
help the Democratic Party a lot to win the 2020 election. Pence lied a lot in the
debate, but he won because he is looking presidential, this is so important.



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