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  IBD/TIPP Poll: Trump +1/Clinton +3
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP Poll: Trump +1/Clinton +3  (Read 3402 times)
HokeyDood
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« Reply #25 on: October 19, 2016, 12:36:33 pm »

LOL no. This is an outlier like that Clinton +15 was

this is a much larger outlier than the Clinton +15 was - the Maxwell average is Clinton +9

IBD is garbage.
If an A- pollster is garbage can I start saying that Monmouth and Marist and anything associated with NBC is garbage? Pretty please?



Apply liberally
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Arch
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« Reply #26 on: October 19, 2016, 12:38:54 pm »

LOL no. This is an outlier like that Clinton +15 was

this is a much larger outlier than the Clinton +15 was - the Maxwell average is Clinton +9

IBD is garbage.
If an A- pollster is garbage can I start saying that Monmouth and Marist and anything associated with NBC is garbage? Pretty please?

This is clearly an outlier, like it or not.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #27 on: October 19, 2016, 12:41:21 pm »

LOL no. This is an outlier like that Clinton +15 was

this is a much larger outlier than the Clinton +15 was - the Maxwell average is Clinton +9

IBD is garbage.
If an A- pollster is garbage can I start saying that Monmouth and Marist and anything associated with NBC is garbage? Pretty please?

As has been said they do this every cycle. Release a crap poll to pretend there's a horse race and then put one out closer to the election that's in line with everything else.
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Dutch Conservative
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« Reply #28 on: October 19, 2016, 12:41:26 pm »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 12:50:41 pm by Dutch Conservative »

A minus at 538.

Love those red avatars shouting 'JUNK' whenever a poll result doesn't fit their narrative.

Still, Clinton had some great polls today to counterbalance this one.

IBD does this crap every election. A month or so before the election they release a poll that's a wild outlier to get attention (OBAMA AND MCCAIN TIED!!!) and then a few days before they release a second one that's in line with what all the other pollsters show.
Hence their high rating.

Now why would they do that? And you are cherrypicking data. In 2008:

11/1 - 11/3     Obama +8
10/22 - 10/26 Obama +3
10/18 - 10/22 Obama +1
10/14 - 10/18 Obama +5
10/7 - 10/13   Obama +3
9/2 - 9/7         Obama +5
8/4 - 8/9         Obama +5
7/7 - 7/11       Obama +3
6/2 - 6/8         Obama +3
5/12 - 5/18     Obama +11
1/2 - 1/4         McCain +12

So, since the start of the actual campaign they had Obama in the lead all the time, only the margin varied. They never had a tie.

Thats not to say they couldnt be wrong now, but they do have a pretty good record.
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dspNY
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« Reply #29 on: October 19, 2016, 12:42:49 pm »

I almost enjoy seeing polls like this because they don't allow complacency to set in. Everyone knows Clinton is way ahead but that 10% of doubt keeps us working hard
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Maxwell
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« Reply #30 on: October 19, 2016, 12:45:37 pm »

I may have gone overboard calling it garbage, but this is the biggest outlier ever.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #31 on: October 19, 2016, 12:48:29 pm »

A minus at 538.

Love those red avatars shouting 'JUNK' whenever a poll result doesn't fit their narrative.

Still, Clinton had some great polls today to counterbalance this one.

IBD does this crap every election. A month or so before the election they release a poll that's a wild outlier to get attention (OBAMA AND MCCAIN TIED!!!) and then a few days before they release a second one that's in line with what all the other pollsters show.
Hence their high rating.

Now why would they do that? And you are cherrypicking data. In 2008:

11/1 - 11/3     Obama +8
10/22 - 10/26 Obama +3
10/14 - 10/18 Obama +5
10/7 - 10/13   Obama +3
9/2 - 9/7         Obama +5
8/4 - 8/9         Obama +5
7/7 - 7/11       Obama +3
6/2 - 6/8         Obama +3
5/12 - 5/18     Obama +11
1/2 - 1/4         McCain +12

So, since the start of the actual campaign they had Obama in the lead all the time, only the margin varied. They never had a tie.

Thats not to say they couldnt be wrong now, but they do have a pretty good record.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/02/ibdtipp-obama-2-under-50/

They also had a mid-October poll where they showed Obama just 1 point ahead of McCain.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #32 on: October 19, 2016, 12:48:57 pm »

I may have gone overboard calling it garbage, but this is the biggest outlier ever.

Its garbage, IBT is garbage. They don't deserve the A- 538 gives them.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #33 on: October 19, 2016, 12:49:34 pm »

I almost enjoy seeing polls like this because they don't allow complacency to set in. Everyone knows Clinton is way ahead but that 10% of doubt keeps us working hard

Same here, we'll see what happens. We should not dismiss polls that we disagree with.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
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« Reply #34 on: October 19, 2016, 12:50:24 pm »

I pay no attention to 538 ratings. They give Survey USA an A.
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Dutch Conservative
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« Reply #35 on: October 19, 2016, 12:52:18 pm »


They also had a mid-October poll where they showed Obama just 1 point ahead of McCain.

True, modified it. So maybe this one is an outlier to, but I refuse to accept they are doing this on purpose.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #36 on: October 19, 2016, 12:55:21 pm »

I pay no attention to 538 ratings. They give Survey USA an A.

Silver says they've been accurate for such a long time that it maintains its spot.

But since 2014, they've done pretty poorly.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #37 on: October 19, 2016, 01:03:35 pm »

Love the reek of dog sweat from the deplorable posters. Beautiful.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #38 on: October 19, 2016, 01:06:46 pm »


They also had a mid-October poll where they showed Obama just 1 point ahead of McCain.

True, modified it. So maybe this one is an outlier to, but I refuse to accept they are doing this on purpose.

Some pollsters completely fabricate their data and results. It's been documented by Silver but we should give IBD the benefit of the doubt. They have a slight Republican leaning bias so it's probably safe to say the race is anywhere from tied to +8 in favor of Hillary.

We can never be too cautious of pollsters accuracy because they tend to herd and throw out results that are too deviated from the average. I applaud IBD for being brave enough to give us the result. Perhaps it could be a warning for all Democrats.
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Edu
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« Reply #39 on: October 19, 2016, 01:11:52 pm »

Love the reek of dog sweat from the deplorable posters. Beautiful.

Haha, Yep, 500 polls they have been absent for and then this crap comes out and they are all over it like flies
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #40 on: October 19, 2016, 01:19:10 pm »

Das ist ein Tracker. Scheiße!
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #41 on: October 19, 2016, 01:19:34 pm »

hmm, ok... Trump is ahead nationally, but Republicans are so panicky that they are spending money in R-leaning house districts to avoid a collapse...Clinton and surrogates are heading into Arizona and pouring Super Pac money into Georgia but Trump is ahead nationally...
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Neo-crypto-paleoliberal
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« Reply #42 on: October 19, 2016, 01:25:44 pm »

LOL no. This is an outlier like that Clinton +15 was

this is a much larger outlier than the Clinton +15 was - the Maxwell average is Clinton +9

IBD is garbage.
If an A- pollster is garbage can I start saying that Monmouth and Marist and anything associated with NBC is garbage? Pretty please?

You can say whatever you want.  Just stick by your words come Nov. 9.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #43 on: October 19, 2016, 01:28:41 pm »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 01:33:43 pm by ProudModerate2 »

LOL no. This is an outlier like that Clinton +15 was

this is a much larger outlier than the Clinton +15 was - the Maxwell average is Clinton +9
IBD is garbage.

If an A- pollster is garbage can I start saying that Monmouth and Marist and anything associated with NBC is garbage? Pretty please?

The fly goes missing for some time.
But then all of a sudden, there is a new hot pile of s**t, and suddenly the fly appears on jumps on the manure faster than you can say "This poll is a massive outlier."
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ill ind
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« Reply #44 on: October 19, 2016, 01:36:17 pm »

Given that Obama was 1 point ahead at a similar time in 2008, I'm guessing that their secret sauce for weighing survey results changes over time and that the weighing mechanism used at this timeframe yields this same type of result.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #45 on: October 19, 2016, 01:36:41 pm »

Ok,assume this is not a huge outlier.
How the hell does it fit with all the state polls from the last 2 weeks?
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #46 on: October 19, 2016, 01:38:07 pm »

Ok,assume this is not a huge outlier.
How the hell does it fit with all the state polls from the last 2 weeks?

it doesn't
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #47 on: October 19, 2016, 01:42:49 pm »

Ok,assume this is not a huge outlier.
How the hell does it fit with all the state polls from the last 2 weeks?

It doesn't, so unless there's something wrong with their methodology (and from their track record, there probably isn't) then this one is likely an outlier.  Even well-designed polls are going to be outside the MoE 5% of the time, by definition.  That's 1 outlier out of every 20 polls.  How many polls have we had in the past few days?

The C+15 poll is likely a similar outlier, but on the other end of the range.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #48 on: October 19, 2016, 01:43:04 pm »

Ok,assume this is not a huge outlier.
How the hell does it fit with all the state polls from the last 2 weeks?

I am scratching my head more at the fact that their trend is counter-intuitive.

He has actually taken the lead since September which seems to suggest that the sexual misconducts have not hurt him at all.

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Brittain33
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« Reply #49 on: October 19, 2016, 02:40:14 pm »

Throw IMDB in the trash.
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