WI-PPP: Clinton +12, at 50%
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  WI-PPP: Clinton +12, at 50%
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Author Topic: WI-PPP: Clinton +12, at 50%  (Read 2669 times)
dspNY
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« on: October 19, 2016, 03:32:27 PM »

Clinton 50, Trump 38.

Poll done for the group End Citizens United

Feingold leads by 6 in the Senate race (47-41)

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ECU-WI-poll-Oct19.pdf
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 03:32:59 PM »

Are they a reputed Pollster
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 03:34:33 PM »


PPP? They're a great pollster. Of the major national pollsters, they have almost no statistical bias. This poll is probably a couple of points more Democratic than it should be because it was done for a liberal advocacy group but PPP is solid.

Additionally, they didn't ask any of their funny questions that troll Republican voters. They just took a regular sample
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 03:34:54 PM »

They didn't bother polling the third parties ?
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 03:35:21 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 03:35:31 PM »

Beautiful
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2016, 03:39:40 PM »


PPP? They're a great pollster. Of the major national pollsters, they have almost no statistical bias. This poll is probably a couple of points more Democratic than it should be because it was done for a liberal advocacy group but PPP is solid.

Additionally, they didn't ask any of their funny questions that troll Republican voters. They just took a regular sample

Oops I misread. I thought End Citizens United was the pollster.

PPP are a great pollster of course
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2016, 03:40:36 PM »


PPP? They're a great pollster. Of the major national pollsters, they have almost no statistical bias. This poll is probably a couple of points more Democratic than it should be because it was done for a liberal advocacy group but PPP is solid.

Additionally, they didn't ask any of their funny questions that troll Republican voters. They just took a regular sample

Oops I misread. I thought End Citizens United was the pollster.

PPP are a great pollster of course

Eh, they are robo calls mixed with Internet samples. Typically low balls HRC, esp with POC. Has had a Trump lean all cycle.
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2016, 03:40:43 PM »

Even if the Clinton +8 polls are right, there could be a crazy divergence between WI and IA this year which makes less than zero sense
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2016, 03:41:07 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 03:42:36 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0



They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 03:46:31 PM »

SMASHING, MY DEAR FELLOWS! 

Another brick to solidify the Wisconsin stretch of Das Freiwall. 
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2016, 03:47:21 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0

They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.


PPP has been accused of fabricating data and polls by some people. I'll take their words for what they are but PPP polls have never been too persuasive to me.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2016, 03:48:21 PM »

So I guess Feingold won't be outperforming Clinton.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2016, 03:49:02 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0

They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.


PPP has been accused of fabricating data and polls by some people.
Much as I admire Nate, he's wrong this time.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2016, 03:51:17 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0

They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.


PPP has been accused of fabricating data and polls by some people. I'll take their words for what they are but PPP polls have never been too persuasive to me.

No... they failed to release a correct poll because they assumed it was way off.  They didn't fabricate anything. 
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2016, 03:53:21 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0

They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.


PPP has been accused of fabricating data and polls by some people. I'll take their words for what they are but PPP polls have never been too persuasive to me.

No... they failed to release a correct poll because they assumed it was way off.  They didn't fabricate anything. 
Yeah... plus it was a private poll. It seems right to assume that your methodology is off in a case like this.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2016, 03:54:00 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0

They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.


PPP has been accused of fabricating data and polls by some people.
Much as I admire Nate, he's wrong this time.

How is he wrong?  Also, which Nate are you talking about?  Both Cohn and Silver have criticized PPP.  Tongue


No... they failed to release a correct poll because they assumed it was way off.  They didn't fabricate anything. 

A pollster not releasing a poll because they don't think it looks right is absolutely dishonest.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2016, 03:59:22 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0

They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.


PPP has been accused of fabricating data and polls by some people. I'll take their words for what they are but PPP polls have never been too persuasive to me.

No... they failed to release a correct poll because they assumed it was way off.  They didn't fabricate anything. 

But I'm always fascinated by how they get such good results. IVR/Online are same methodology that Rasmussen uses and we all know how bad they are.

It would not surprise me a bit if PPP tweaks their numbers to herd.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2016, 04:13:36 PM »

If they're showing Clinton at 12% while other pollsters show her more like 7% up, then it seems obvious that they aren't cooking their books anymore.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2016, 04:18:18 PM »

They didn't bother polling the third parties ?

It seems like they do this with a lot of their privately commissioned polls.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2016, 04:22:07 PM »

They are good, but definitely not great. And their "funny" questions might hurt them in the future.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2016, 04:24:44 PM »

If they're showing Clinton at 12% while other pollsters show her more like 7% up, then it seems obvious that they aren't cooking their books anymore.

That's totally possible.  My point is that if they were indeed herding, then we can't assess their current accuracy based on how they performed in past elections.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2016, 04:26:57 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0

They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.


PPP has been accused of fabricating data and polls by some people.
Much as I admire Nate, he's wrong this time.

How is he wrong?  Also, which Nate are you talking about?  Both Cohn and Silver have criticized PPP.  Tongue


No... they failed to release a correct poll because they assumed it was way off.  They didn't fabricate anything. 

A pollster not releasing a poll because they don't think it looks right is absolutely dishonest.

My point is, I think this is more PPP being very Bayesian versus fudging the numbers.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2016, 04:35:55 PM »


Called every swing state correctly in 2012, with some dead on.

Yes, but they've been criticized for potentially cooking the books in order to match the polling average:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=197049.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179353.0

They should not be able to get that close to the polling averages by chance, given their sample sizes.  Same applies to other robo-pollsters, for that matter.


PPP has been accused of fabricating data and polls by some people.
Much as I admire Nate, he's wrong this time.

How is he wrong?  Also, which Nate are you talking about?  Both Cohn and Silver have criticized PPP.  Tongue


No... they failed to release a correct poll because they assumed it was way off.  They didn't fabricate anything. 

A pollster not releasing a poll because they don't think it looks right is absolutely dishonest.

My point is, I think this is more PPP being very Bayesian versus fudging the numbers.

What do you mean by "being very Bayesian"?  I mean, any kind of pollster methodology that takes the results from other polls into account is inherently dishonest, unless I'm missing something here?
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