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  IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2  (Read 10695 times)
rafta_rafta
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« Reply #100 on: November 01, 2016, 06:17:24 am »

The race has considerably tightened. Now it's upto the state wide polls in swing states
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jaichind
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« Reply #101 on: November 01, 2016, 06:19:09 am »

The fact that Clinton only leads Trump 43-40 in the Northeast is surprising.  If true this is very good news for Trump in PA.   Trump losing West 49-39 is also "good" news for Trump as that means Clinton has a lot of wasted votes.  Clinton leading Trump 48-33 among Hispanics is surprising.  If we adjust that to 58-23 then Clinton should be leading Trump by 3 but not 1 which I suspect is the true state of the race.  On the flip side 7% of the Black vote are for Other/Not sure makes me feel that most of them are hidden Trump voters.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #102 on: November 02, 2016, 01:49:19 am »

King pointed out over on AAD that in order for this poll's crosstabs to make sense, the sample would have to be 79% White.
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #103 on: November 02, 2016, 05:08:37 am »

11/2:

Trump - 44
Clinton - 44 (-1)
Johnson - 4
Stein - 2

2 way:
Trump - 44
Clinton - 44 (-1)
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #104 on: November 02, 2016, 06:02:45 am »

1.3% points change in 4-way and 1.0% in 2-way.

4-way
Trump 44.4% (+0.7)
Hillary 44.0% (-0.6)
Johnson 4.1%
Stein 2.2%.

In the two-way poll
Trump  44.2% (+0.3)
Clinton 44.0% (-0.7)

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-with-election-just-5-days-away-ibdtipp-poll/

Quote
Trump has made gains among both independents (he's up 5 points to 46%) and Republicans (up four points to 88%) since Friday. What's more, 70% of voters now say they strongly back Trump (up from 65% on four days ago).

Voters also now view Trump more favorably than Clinton — 43% to 41% — and more honest and trustworthy — 50% to 41%.

Clinton's support has also strengthened as the election gets closer, with 65% saying they strongly support her, up from 62% on Saturday.
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jaichind
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« Reply #105 on: November 02, 2016, 07:56:38 am »

King pointed out over on AAD that in order for this poll's crosstabs to make sense, the sample would have to be 79% White.

I did the math with today's numbers and I came up with an implied 78% White sample.  If we go with a 72% White sample instead you get a 4% lead for Clinton.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #106 on: November 02, 2016, 08:01:38 am »


10/28-11/1 IBD/TIPP

It is TRUMP +0.4%. Tongue
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #107 on: November 03, 2016, 05:05:32 am »

Another day, another tie on the 4 way and 2 way, decimals moved a little into a 0.1% Trump lead on 4 way and a 0.3% lead on 2 way for Clinton, but who care
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #108 on: November 03, 2016, 05:36:22 am »

Whoa! Take a look at the articles published at IBD along with this poll. It's like Breitbart-light.

"WikiLeaks Reveals How Billionaire 'Progressives' Run The Democratic Party"
(along with a photo of George Soros for those who didn't take the hint)

"Clinton Foundation Scandal"
  
"Good News: 35% Of Gov’t Workers Might Quit If Trump Wins"


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jaichind
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« Reply #109 on: November 04, 2016, 05:50:52 am »



Still tied

Clinton   44
Trump    44
Johnson   4
Stein       2

At the decimal level Clinton did seems to gain from yesterday
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jaichind
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« Reply #110 on: November 04, 2016, 05:53:19 am »

The implied White share of the electorate seems to be 77%.  Clinton's gains seems to be related to a slow reshifting of the sample toward a more correct racial breakdown of the electorate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #111 on: November 04, 2016, 06:02:01 am »

I see the delightful commentary of IBD continues.

"Pfizer Should Resist Doctors Without Borders' Bullying, For Its Own Sake — And For Ours"
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #112 on: November 05, 2016, 07:01:55 am »

Still tied



Clinton   44
Trump    44
Johnson   5
Stein       2

A bit of a good news for Trump.  It seems Trump lost a bit of ground to Johnson but still remain only 0.5% behind Clinton.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #113 on: November 05, 2016, 07:06:09 am »

She leads 46-43 in the head-to-head.
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alomas
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« Reply #114 on: November 05, 2016, 07:48:41 am »

She leads 46-43 in the head-to-head.
Fortunately there are more candidates in the race Wink
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jaichind
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« Reply #115 on: November 05, 2016, 07:50:40 am »

She leads 46-43 in the head-to-head.
Fortunately there are more candidates in the race Wink

Well, it does give us some clues on how last minute tactical voting might go if there are going to be any.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #116 on: November 06, 2016, 06:15:19 am »
« Edited: November 06, 2016, 06:17:42 am by Little Big BREXIT »

Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point With 2 Days Left

Trump +1 in 4-way

Clinton +1,5 in 2-way

Quote
The readings for all candidates are the same in the unrounded IBD/TIPP poll data. A day earlier, Clinton led by 0.5 point.
In a head-to-head matchup excluding third-party candidates, Clinton is ahead by 1.5 points, 45.3% to 43.8%, but that's down from 2.6 points a day earlier.
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Wade McDaniel
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« Reply #117 on: November 06, 2016, 06:18:47 am »

Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point With 2 Days Left

Trump +1 in 4-way

Clinton +1,5 in 2-way

Quote
The readings for all candidates are the same in the unrounded IBD/TIPP poll data. A day earlier, Clinton led by 0.5 point.
In a head-to-head matchup excluding third-party candidates, Clinton is ahead by 1.5 points, 45.3% to 43.8%, but that's down from 2.6 points a day earlier.

Something tells me there's going to be more than just 2 candidates in the race on Tuesday.  We'll see though about these numbers.  A lot can happen.
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jaichind
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« Reply #118 on: November 07, 2016, 06:52:02 am »



Trump lead becomes 2

Trump       43
Clinton      41
Johnson      6
Stein          2
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #119 on: November 07, 2016, 06:52:53 am »

Lol, wut?
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #120 on: November 07, 2016, 06:56:56 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2016, 06:58:34 am by SunSt0rm »

So 4-way it is
Trump 43.1%
Clinton 40.7%

but 2-way is
Clinton 43.1%
Trump 42.1%

Why the hell would 1% of the people vote for Trump if Johnson or Stein are on the ballot, but not vote on him if Johnson and Stein arent on the ballot. Doesnt make any sense!
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heatcharger
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« Reply #121 on: November 07, 2016, 06:59:56 am »

It's gonna be a bloodbath when 538 updates their ratings.
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jaichind
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« Reply #122 on: November 07, 2016, 07:01:02 am »

It's gonna be a bloodbath when 538 updates their ratings.

Not really.  538 uses national polls to set trend and state polls to set level of support.  Will have tiny impact
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #123 on: November 07, 2016, 07:01:54 am »

Haha, what? But good news anyway for Trump Roll Eyes


Not really.  538 uses national polls to set trend and state polls to set level of support.  Will have tiny impact

The rating of IBD/TIPP
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heatcharger
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« Reply #124 on: November 07, 2016, 07:02:13 am »

It's gonna be a bloodbath when 538 updates their ratings.

Not really.  538 uses national polls to set trend and state polls to set level of support.  Will have tiny impact

I'm not talking about their model, I'm saying after this election a lot of pollsters are going to have their ratings downgraded.
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