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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2  (Read 11036 times)
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« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2016, 11:05:30 am »

wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

according to the their homepage it was the most accurate for the last 3 elections but they have never been so different from the general average.

let's wait for the new weekend polls.

There's also the fact that this is now a daily tracking poll, something they didn't do before.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #26 on: October 22, 2016, 11:06:34 am »

I dont trust IBD because of this gem personally:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2016, 11:11:43 am »

wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

Among the major pollsters, ABC/Washington Post poll and Pew Research came the closest in 2012. They predicted +3 Obama when the actual result was +3.9.

IBD/TIPP may have been the most accurate if you average past 3 elections but that's due to their performance in 2004 and 2008. In 2012, they had nearly +3 Republican bias.

Pew Research for the past 3 elections has not been off by more than 1.2 and they showed +7 Clinton in their last poll.
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republicanx
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« Reply #28 on: October 22, 2016, 11:26:12 am »

if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #29 on: October 22, 2016, 11:27:42 am »

if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.
  3 point bias + MOE, at least. ^^
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« Reply #30 on: October 22, 2016, 11:27:54 am »

if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #31 on: October 22, 2016, 11:29:59 am »


Quote
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Lol
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republicanx
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« Reply #32 on: October 22, 2016, 11:30:50 am »

if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.

texas will stay republican so will georgia etc, clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #33 on: October 22, 2016, 11:32:44 am »

clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.

she is not atm, there are less available early voting stations.
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« Reply #34 on: October 22, 2016, 11:33:00 am »

if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.

texas will stay republican so will georgia etc, clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.

No, she is not under performing in NC. Dem numbers are slightly up and Rep numbers are extremely down.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #35 on: October 22, 2016, 11:33:22 am »

IBD/TIPP may have been the most accurate if you average past 3 elections but that's due to their performance in 2004 and 2008. In 2012, they had nearly +3 Republican bias.
In 2012 everyone had about 2-3 R bias. They are good, but are clearly an outlier this year/right now. No pollster is perfect in each election. Nothing strange here.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #36 on: October 22, 2016, 11:34:25 am »

i believe that the race is closer than clinton +7 but tied or trump lead would be a difference from 7 to 10 points....not likely.
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republicanx
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« Reply #37 on: October 22, 2016, 11:35:54 am »

if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.
texas will stay republican so will georgia etc, clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.

No, she is not under performing in NC. Dem numbers are slightly up and Rep numbers are extremely down.
slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #38 on: October 22, 2016, 11:39:18 am »

slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.

ALL are down from 2012 cause of a lack of voting stations but republicans are significant weaker than 2012 atm.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789789737078972416
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« Reply #39 on: October 22, 2016, 11:40:28 am »

slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.

ALL are down from 2012 cause of a lack of voting stations but republicans are significant weaker than 2012 atm.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789789737078972416

There you go
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republicanx
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« Reply #40 on: October 22, 2016, 12:04:45 pm »

slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.

ALL are down from 2012 cause of a lack of voting stations but republicans are significant weaker than 2012 atm.



There you go

comparison to 2012 how how much was the lead democrats had going into election day
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #41 on: October 22, 2016, 12:11:29 pm »

comparison to 2012 how how much was the lead democrats had going into election day

170.000 votes.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #42 on: October 22, 2016, 12:15:54 pm »

So on the whole, Trump isn't keeping up with Romney?
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republicanx
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« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2016, 12:17:23 pm »

Democrats up 60k at the moment correct? Do they usually increase over time or do republicans close the gap near election day? (sorry for al these questions) The stats r so interesting to me.
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« Reply #44 on: October 22, 2016, 12:17:51 pm »

Democrats up 60k at the moment correct? Do they usually increase over time or do republicans close the gap near election day? (sorry for al these questions) The stats r so interesting to me.

They increase over time.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #45 on: October 22, 2016, 12:18:34 pm »

Democrats up 60k at the moment correct? Do they usually increase over time or do republicans close the gap near election day? (sorry for al these questions) The stats r so interesting to me.

dem soar even more close to election day, only to get crushed sometimes at the actual day.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #46 on: October 22, 2016, 12:18:57 pm »

wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

Among the major pollsters, ABC/Washington Post poll and Pew Research came the closest in 2012. They predicted +3 Obama when the actual result was +3.9.

IBD/TIPP may have been the most accurate if you average past 3 elections but that's due to their performance in 2004 and 2008. In 2012, they had nearly +3 Republican bias.

Pew Research for the past 3 elections has not been off by more than 1.2 and they showed +7 Clinton in their last poll.

It maybe down to different methodology,
Do you think a higher turnout among white working class voters and latino voters, may result in different regional results then polls may been illustrating?

Polls in the states do a fairly good job of capturing who is likely to turn out regardless of demographics and regions.

General election in the US has not been off by more than 2.5 points since 2000.

2000 +2.2 Republican bias
2004 +1 Democrat bias
2008 +0.1 Democrat bias
2012 +2.5 Republican bias

When the bias was somewhat significant, it was more likely to have Republican bias. Pollsters would have to be way off if Trump outperforms the aggregate by 6 or 7 this year. Possible but unlikely imo.

The fact that their margin is even more favorable than Republican-leaning Rasmussen is a red flag for me.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #47 on: October 22, 2016, 12:19:56 pm »

If it increases over time and the Democrats are proportionally higher than last time, it could get really rough for Republicans, huh?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #48 on: October 22, 2016, 12:32:17 pm »

If it increases over time and the Democrats are proportionally higher than last time, it could get really rough for Republicans, huh?

Considering NC is about 60%+ Early Voting, yes.
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republicanx
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« Reply #49 on: October 22, 2016, 12:36:55 pm »

is there possibility that the "white democrats" are voting trump and haven't changed their registration.
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