Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 19, 2019, 11:57:23 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 Print
Author Topic: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2  (Read 10711 times)
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,259
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: October 22, 2016, 12:40:18 pm »

is there possibility that the "white democrats" are voting trump and haven't changed their registration.

Highly unlikely. The opposite is actually much much more likely.
Logged
republicanx
Rookie
*
Posts: 25
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: October 22, 2016, 12:41:44 pm »

I have family who r registered democrats and voting trump (voted obama twice). thats why i was wondering.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,621
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: October 22, 2016, 12:44:35 pm »

ofc it's possible, especially in the rust belt.

but at the same time, many registered republican professionals are going to vote for hillary.

outside of OH/IA i wouldn't bet on it right now.
Logged
republicanx
Rookie
*
Posts: 25
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: October 22, 2016, 12:45:22 pm »

Yup, i'm from nj so it's happening there as well even tho it ain't a swing state.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,728
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: October 22, 2016, 02:05:55 pm »

Will be glad to see another pollster fall from grace.
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,452
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: October 24, 2016, 06:18:45 am »

Update

Clinton 41%
Trump 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

Clinton 42%
Trump 42%
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,657
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: October 24, 2016, 06:44:14 am »

Intresting. Both LA Times, IBD and probably ABC polls shows a further dive of Trump's support recently. I'll watch Gallup fav/unfav update today.

Election-is-rigged/I-won't-accept-the-results effect? It will be a really fun week Cheesy
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,860
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: October 24, 2016, 09:29:02 am »

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.
Logged
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 657
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: October 24, 2016, 09:32:54 am »

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

Trump is at 41% in this poll. In the ABC Clinton+12 poll, Trump is at ........... 41%

So I guess if IBD just pushes leaners a bit more, and ABC finds some more third-party voters, they can quite happily end up in the same place
Logged
BoAtlantis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: October 24, 2016, 10:01:23 am »

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

2012 is not a good example because most polls showed the race as dead heat so I checked out 2008.

IBD herded hard-core in 2008. They were, on average, showing lower margin for Obama only to join the crowd toward the end.

Check out 2008 numbers for the last few weeks.

Diageo/Hotline   10/20 - 10/22   769 LV   3.5   48   43   Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby   10/20 - 10/22   1206 LV   2.9   52   40   Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post   10/19 - 10/22   1335 LV   2.5   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP              10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
GWU/Battleground   10/16 - 10/22   1000 LV   3.5   49   45   Obama +4
FOX News   10/20 - 10/21   936 LV   3.0   49   40   Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times   10/19 - 10/22   771 LV   --   52   39   Obama +13


ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1314 LV   2.5   52   45   Obama +7
Pew Research           10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
IBD/TIPP              10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
GWU/Battleground   10/20 - 10/26   1000 LV   3.5   49   46   Obama +3
Newsweek                    10/22 - 10/23   882 LV   4.0   53   41   Obama +12

But somehow their average became more realistic toward the end.

Rasmussen Reports        11/1 - 11/3   3000 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby  11/1 - 11/3   1201 LV   2.9   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
FOX News                        11/1 - 11/2   971 LV   3.0   50   43   Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   11/1 - 11/2   1011 LV   3.1   51   43   Obama +8
Logged
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 657
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: October 24, 2016, 10:12:48 am »

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

2012 is not a good example because most polls showed the race as dead heat so I checked out 2008.

IBD herded hard-core in 2008. They were, on average, showing lower margin for Obama only to join the crowd toward the end.

Check out 2008 numbers for the last few weeks.

Diageo/Hotline   10/20 - 10/22   769 LV   3.5   48   43   Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby   10/20 - 10/22   1206 LV   2.9   52   40   Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post   10/19 - 10/22   1335 LV   2.5   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP              10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
GWU/Battleground   10/16 - 10/22   1000 LV   3.5   49   45   Obama +4
FOX News   10/20 - 10/21   936 LV   3.0   49   40   Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times   10/19 - 10/22   771 LV   --   52   39   Obama +13


ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1314 LV   2.5   52   45   Obama +7
Pew Research           10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
IBD/TIPP              10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
GWU/Battleground   10/20 - 10/26   1000 LV   3.5   49   46   Obama +3
Newsweek                    10/22 - 10/23   882 LV   4.0   53   41   Obama +12

But somehow their average became more realistic toward the end.

Rasmussen Reports        11/1 - 11/3   3000 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby  11/1 - 11/3   1201 LV   2.9   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
FOX News                        11/1 - 11/2   971 LV   3.0   50   43   Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   11/1 - 11/2   1011 LV   3.1   51   43   Obama +8

again, similarly to my post two-up, McCain is at 44 in all three of those polls, and that number is not an outlier relative to other polls, its Obama's number which shifts. Just like Trump is at 41-44% in all polls at present, whilst Clinton's number is much more variable. That's the result of different LV screens I guess, with the closer polls perhaps being stricter on these to promote the idea of a closer race...?
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,657
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: October 24, 2016, 10:47:29 am »

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

2012 is not a good example because most polls showed the race as dead heat so I checked out 2008.

IBD herded hard-core in 2008. They were, on average, showing lower margin for Obama only to join the crowd toward the end.

Check out 2008 numbers for the last few weeks.

Diageo/Hotline   10/20 - 10/22   769 LV   3.5   48   43   Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby   10/20 - 10/22   1206 LV   2.9   52   40   Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post   10/19 - 10/22   1335 LV   2.5   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP              10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
GWU/Battleground   10/16 - 10/22   1000 LV   3.5   49   45   Obama +4
FOX News   10/20 - 10/21   936 LV   3.0   49   40   Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times   10/19 - 10/22   771 LV   --   52   39   Obama +13


ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1314 LV   2.5   52   45   Obama +7
Pew Research           10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
IBD/TIPP              10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
GWU/Battleground   10/20 - 10/26   1000 LV   3.5   49   46   Obama +3
Newsweek                    10/22 - 10/23   882 LV   4.0   53   41   Obama +12

But somehow their average became more realistic toward the end.

Rasmussen Reports        11/1 - 11/3   3000 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby  11/1 - 11/3   1201 LV   2.9   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
FOX News                        11/1 - 11/2   971 LV   3.0   50   43   Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   11/1 - 11/2   1011 LV   3.1   51   43   Obama +8
You are cherry-picking. Other polls during the same period:

IBD/TIPP
IBD/TIPP   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
IBD/TIPP   10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
IBD/TIPP   10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
IBD/TIPP   10/14 - 10/18   1072 LV   3.0   47   42   Obama +5

Gallup
Gallup         10/31 - 11/2   2472 LV   2.0   55   44   Obama +11
Gallup (Traditional)*   10/30 - 11/1   2503 LV   2.0   51   43   Obama +8
Gallup (Expanded)*   10/30 - 11/1   2475 LV   2.0   52   43   Obama +9
Gallup (Traditional)*   10/24 - 10/26   2446 LV   2.0   50   45   Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)*   10/24 - 10/26   2343 LV   2.0   53   43   Obama +10
Gallup (Traditional)*   10/20 - 10/22   2399 LV   2.0   50   46   Obama +4
Gallup (Expanded)*   10/20 - 10/22   2349 LV   2.0   51   45   Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)*   10/16 - 10/18   2590 LV   2.0   49   46   Obama +3
Gallup (Expanded)*   10/16 - 10/18   2277 LV   2.0   51   44   Obama +7


Pew
Pew Research   10/29 - 11/1   2587 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Pew Research   10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
Pew Research   10/16 - 10/19   2382 LV   2.5   53   39   Obama +14

Gallup showed approximately the same trend from Obama ~+5 to ~+10
Pew showed a "hardboard herding" as you said.


IIRC, 538 calculate their rating based on last 4 weeks of elections. So it should at least take care of "final-week herding". In theory.

P.S. Right now IBD/TIPP is heavily off. No doubt.
That's why one should average.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,860
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: October 25, 2016, 06:06:53 am »

10/25: Clinton +1 (2-way and 4-way)
Clinton - 42% (+1)
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3% (-1)

Clinton - 43% (+1)
Trump - 42%

Trump is now trailing in every single 2-way National poll, and every single 4-way National poll besides Rasmussen.
Logged
rafta_rafta
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 926


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: October 25, 2016, 06:20:56 am »

IBD always herds as the election nears. They did it in 2008 as well
Logged
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,968
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: October 25, 2016, 06:21:47 am »

So no one has the Donald ahead?
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,860
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: October 25, 2016, 06:29:00 am »

So no one has the Donald ahead?

Only Rasmussen, for now.
Logged
Mallow
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 741
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: October 25, 2016, 08:05:47 am »

So no one has the Donald ahead?

Only Rasmussen, for now.

Not anymore.
Logged
ReapSow
Rafe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 618
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: October 25, 2016, 01:21:02 pm »

Poor McGropey. He can't even tweet about being up 1 point in the last remaining garbage polls.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,860
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: October 25, 2016, 04:10:59 pm »

Washington Post article on why this pollster differs so much. If you are easily triggered by poor methodology, do not read this:

Quote
Weighting marks an area where IBD/TIPPís poll is more unusual on two fronts. First, the poll weighs its sample of registered voters to match 2014 Current Population Survey estimates for that group by age, gender, racial and region. By contrast, the most regular national surveys weigh their overall adult samples to demographics of the voting-age population, for which benchmarks are published with greater regularity. Although the IBD poll weights to different census population parameters than other surveys, it is not clear that this would necessarily boost Trumpís support in a survey without testing.

Education also was not a weighting factor in IBDís survey, though it is commonly used in surveys since adults with less education tend to be hard to reach in public opinion polls. This year, lower- and higher-educated white voters have diverged sharply in their support for Clinton and Trump.

A second unusual aspect of IBD/TIPPís weighting is party identification, where the surveyís sample of registered voters is weighted to match a predetermined estimate for the share of self-identified Democrats, Republicans, independents and others. Mayur declined to provide details on the source of party identification benchmarks, describing them as proprietary, although weighting sources are a required element of disclosure for the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/25/why-the-pollster-who-has-trump-and-clinton-tied-says-he-isnt-worried-about-his-results/
Logged
BundouYMB
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 864


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: October 25, 2016, 04:21:45 pm »

Looooooooooooooooooooooool

Weighting by party ID! Literally the unskewers poll!
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,728
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: October 25, 2016, 04:43:01 pm »

Weighting by Party ID is indefensible.
Logged
Marianne Williamson
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: October 26, 2016, 05:04:02 am »

Staying constant today, Clinton 42-Trump 41
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,657
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: October 26, 2016, 05:06:43 am »

Weighting by Party ID is indefensible.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,860
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: October 26, 2016, 05:17:05 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 05:23:27 am by Castro »

10/26: Clinton +1 in 4-way, +2 in 2-way
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 41% (-1)

Looking into the demographic breakdowns, the most glaring thing seems to performance among Hispanics. They have it as 50% Clinton, 25% Trump, 10% Johnson, 9% Stein. Catholic breakdown is also highly questionable, at 48% Trump, 37% Clinton, 7% Johnson, 3% Stein.

(Thread title should be edited to include 2-way and 4-way numbers)
Logged
Marianne Williamson
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: October 27, 2016, 04:58:32 am »

Clinton moves into a 43-41 point lead on Day 9
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC