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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2  (Read 10715 times)
StatesPoll
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« Reply #75 on: October 27, 2016, 05:06:55 am »

Weighting by Party ID is indefensible.

it's not +2%, it's Hillary +1.2%

10/27 IBD/TIPP  http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Hillary 42.6% | TRUMP 41.4% | Johnson 7.5% | Stein 2.2%

not bad results, considering it used Dem +8% skewed samples.

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #76 on: October 27, 2016, 05:12:10 am »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 05:38:22 am by ApatheticAustrian »

since decimals are from hell, it will be reported as clinton +2.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #77 on: October 27, 2016, 05:21:25 am »

Weighting by Party ID is indefensible.

it's not +2%, it's Hillary +1.2%

10/27 IBD/TIPP  http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Hillary 42.6% | TRUMP 41.4% | Johnson 7.5% | Stein 2.2%

not bad results, considering it used Dem +8% skewed samples.

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StatesPoll
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« Reply #78 on: October 27, 2016, 05:28:53 am »

since decimals are from hell, it will be reportet as clinton +2.

hahahaha
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #79 on: October 27, 2016, 05:54:34 am »

since decimals are from hell, it will be reportet as clinton +2.

hahahaha
Lol, go to the website, the tracker has it Clinton 43 - Trump 41 and their article states Clinton "clings" to 2 point lead, silly Statespoll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #80 on: October 28, 2016, 05:47:42 am »

2% swing towards Hillary today.

C+3.0    4-way
C+3.4    2-way

Quote
She's also up three points unrounded, 43.8%-40.8%, up from 1.2 points the day before.

Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 7.3% while Green Party nominee Jill Stein has fallen to 1.8%, with 2.2% for "other" and 4.1% for "not sure."

In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads 45.2%-41.8%, or 3.4 points.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #81 on: October 28, 2016, 08:57:32 am »

Poor Donald. This was his alternate reality just a few days ago...

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dspNY
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« Reply #82 on: October 29, 2016, 06:26:33 am »

Now IBD shows a larger lead for Clinton than WaPo. Go figure

Clinton 44.5%
Trump 40.6%
Johnson 6.8%
Stein 1.8%

Two-way

Clinton 45.5%
Trump 41.0%

http://www.investors.com/politics/clintons-lead-expands-to-4-points-as-her-campaign-is-rocked-by-new-email-scandal-bombshell-ibdtipp-poll/
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #83 on: October 29, 2016, 07:03:13 am »

Average and move on. Both were outliers and now "converging" on average to "true value".
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Fargobison
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« Reply #84 on: October 29, 2016, 10:26:38 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #85 on: October 29, 2016, 12:08:25 pm »

It is hilarious that Trumpers I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.

Trump sheep will take anything they can get.
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Hammy
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« Reply #86 on: October 29, 2016, 12:08:36 pm »

Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?
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dspNY
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« Reply #87 on: October 29, 2016, 12:09:44 pm »

Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?

Tracking polls are largely terrible
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Arch
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« Reply #88 on: October 29, 2016, 12:11:19 pm »

Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?

What we can extrapolate, Hillary is likely leading about +3-+5 post Comey crap. Polls' LV screens are failing massively, which is giving us the range of variation.

The only thing we know is that she is leading and that she has done amazingly well with the 20 million early voters who have already cast their ballots. Outside of that, it's a guessing game at this point. Go and vote!
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Hammy
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« Reply #89 on: October 29, 2016, 12:15:50 pm »

Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?

What we can extrapolate, Hillary is likely leading about +3-+5 post Comey crap. Polls' LV screens are failing massively, which is giving us the range of variation.

The only thing we know is that she is leading and that she has done amazingly well with the 20 million early voters who have already cast their ballots. Outside of that, it's a guessing game at this point. Go and vote!

I'll more than likely go on election day rather than early--it's a nearly 30 minute drive with no air conditioning in near-record heat to the early voting here.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #90 on: October 30, 2016, 06:14:10 am »



Clinton    Trump   Johnson   Stein      Other   Not sure
44.1%   41.6%   5.6%      2.4%      2.3%      4.0%

Two-way

Clinton   Trump   Other   Not sure
44.9%   41.3%   5.3%      8.5%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #91 on: October 30, 2016, 09:24:12 am »

Here are the latest crosstabs by party:

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

Dems
Clinton 86%
Trump 6%
Stein 3%
Johnson 2%

GOP
Trump 84%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 44%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 10%
Stein 3%

Compared to their poll from a week ago, the biggest shift is among Democrats:

http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/IBD_TIPP_PresidentialElectionPoll_102316.pdf

A week ago, they had Clinton with just 77% of Dems, compared to 9% for Trump, so thatís a big shift.  The GOP and Indy #s havenít changed much.

Also, the regional breakdown they have at the moment isÖ

Midwest: Clinton +3
Northeast: Clinton +5
South: Trump +2
West: Clinton +9

Biggest regional shifts towards Clinton compared to their polling from last week is in the South and West.  Midwest and Northeast havenít changed much.
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #92 on: October 31, 2016, 05:02:10 am »

Clinton moves to a 45-44 (+1 lead) in the 4 way, down to a 2 point lead in the 2 way.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #93 on: October 31, 2016, 05:27:28 am »

Clinton moves to a 45-44 (+1 lead) in the 4 way, down to a 2 point lead in the 2 way.

WTF is this thing?
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Ljube
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« Reply #94 on: October 31, 2016, 05:35:33 am »

Clinton moves to a 45-44 (+1 lead) in the 4 way, down to a 2 point lead in the 2 way.

WTF is this thing?

Hillary is in freefall.
It's Obamacare.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #95 on: October 31, 2016, 05:36:08 am »

Clinton moves to a 45-44 (+1 lead) in the 4 way, down to a 2 point lead in the 2 way.

WTF is this thing?

Hillary is in freefall.
It's Obamacare.


Thank you for your continued input.
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alomas
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« Reply #96 on: October 31, 2016, 07:13:04 am »

WTF is this thing?
Comey finally doing his job properly and the people's reaction in numbers. Trump is gettnig ever closer.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #97 on: November 01, 2016, 05:09:14 am »

Today:

C+0.9 (4-way)
C+0.8 (2-way)

Quote
Just last week, Clinton appeared to be building an insurmountable lead in both the popular vote and the electoral college. But polling data show Clinton losing support among key groups, especially Independents, who now favor Trump by 48% to 33%. Independents make up a weighted 27% of those answering the IBD/TIPP Poll Ė more than a quarter of the vote.

As noted on Monday, regardless of party, well more than 50% of all voters have consistently said they expected Hillary Clinton to win the election. On Sunday, that number dropped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. It fell further, to 46%, on Monday.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #98 on: November 01, 2016, 06:08:27 am »

You just have to read the editorial to understand how objective the people behind this poll are.
First of all, "Just last week, Clinton appeared to be building an insurmountable lead in both the popular vote and the electoral college"?
Really guys? Just last week you were showing Trump leading Clinton. Unless of course you admit that your poll is crap and we should trust the other ones.

Second, they find that a majority of voters find Trump "honest and trustworthy". Not compared with Clinton but on his own right. There is literally not one poll to be even close to that, he usually polls as bad as her when it comes to that characteristic.

And third, they are talking about "the reopening of the FBI investigation regarding Clinton's e-mails" when nothing like that has happened, just parroting Jason Chaffetz's talking points.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #99 on: November 01, 2016, 06:16:08 am »

You just have to read the editorial to understand how objective the people behind this poll are.
First of all, "Just last week, Clinton appeared to be building an insurmountable lead in both the popular vote and the electoral college"?
Really guys? Just last week you were showing Trump leading Clinton. Unless of course you admit that your poll is crap and we should trust the other ones.

Second, they find that a majority of voters find Trump "honest and trustworthy". Not compared with Clinton but on his own right. There is literally not one poll to be even close to that, he usually polls as bad as her when it comes to that characteristic.

And third, they are talking about "the reopening of the FBI investigation regarding Clinton's e-mails" when nothing like that has happened, just parroting Jason Chaffetz's talking points.

Read PPP:s stupid Trump vs something-ridicolous question. Still no Red hacks bashing to be partisan that "fake" their data...
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