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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2  (Read 10693 times)
Castro
Castro2020
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« on: October 22, 2016, 11:04:14 am »

TBT to when IBD/TIPP was crazy in 2008, but got credit and auto-fellated because it had a good final poll:



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/hitting_a_bullet_with_a_bullet_b_725707.html
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Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2016, 11:29:59 am »

I dont trust IBD because of this gem personally:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/

Quote
As we learned during the Presidntial campaign — when, among other things, they had John McCain winning the youth vote 74-22 — the IBD/TIPP polling operation has literally no idea what they’re doing. I mean, literally none. For example, I don’t trust IBD/TIPP to have competently selected anything resembling a random panel, which is harder to do than you’d think.

Lol
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Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2016, 12:32:17 pm »

If it increases over time and the Democrats are proportionally higher than last time, it could get really rough for Republicans, huh?

Considering NC is about 60%+ Early Voting, yes.
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Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 09:29:02 am »

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.
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Castro
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2016, 06:06:53 am »

10/25: Clinton +1 (2-way and 4-way)
Clinton - 42% (+1)
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3% (-1)

Clinton - 43% (+1)
Trump - 42%

Trump is now trailing in every single 2-way National poll, and every single 4-way National poll besides Rasmussen.
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Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2016, 06:29:00 am »

So no one has the Donald ahead?

Only Rasmussen, for now.
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Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2016, 04:10:59 pm »

Washington Post article on why this pollster differs so much. If you are easily triggered by poor methodology, do not read this:

Quote
Weighting marks an area where IBD/TIPP’s poll is more unusual on two fronts. First, the poll weighs its sample of registered voters to match 2014 Current Population Survey estimates for that group by age, gender, racial and region. By contrast, the most regular national surveys weigh their overall adult samples to demographics of the voting-age population, for which benchmarks are published with greater regularity. Although the IBD poll weights to different census population parameters than other surveys, it is not clear that this would necessarily boost Trump’s support in a survey without testing.

Education also was not a weighting factor in IBD’s survey, though it is commonly used in surveys since adults with less education tend to be hard to reach in public opinion polls. This year, lower- and higher-educated white voters have diverged sharply in their support for Clinton and Trump.

A second unusual aspect of IBD/TIPP’s weighting is party identification, where the survey’s sample of registered voters is weighted to match a predetermined estimate for the share of self-identified Democrats, Republicans, independents and others. Mayur declined to provide details on the source of party identification benchmarks, describing them as proprietary, although weighting sources are a required element of disclosure for the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/25/why-the-pollster-who-has-trump-and-clinton-tied-says-he-isnt-worried-about-his-results/
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Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2016, 05:17:05 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 05:23:27 am by Castro »

10/26: Clinton +1 in 4-way, +2 in 2-way
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 41% (-1)

Looking into the demographic breakdowns, the most glaring thing seems to performance among Hispanics. They have it as 50% Clinton, 25% Trump, 10% Johnson, 9% Stein. Catholic breakdown is also highly questionable, at 48% Trump, 37% Clinton, 7% Johnson, 3% Stein.

(Thread title should be edited to include 2-way and 4-way numbers)
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Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2016, 07:25:28 am »

At least people can shut up about this junk being the most accurate pollster in the future.
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