IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2

[Kalimantan]

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

Trump is at 41% in this poll. In the ABC Clinton+12 poll, Trump is at ........... 41%

So I guess if IBD just pushes leaners a bit more, and ABC finds some more third-party voters, they can quite happily end up in the same place

[Kalimantan]

IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

2012 is not a good example because most polls showed the race as dead heat so I checked out 2008.

IBD herded hard-core in 2008. They were, on average, showing lower margin for Obama only to join the crowd toward the end.

Check out 2008 numbers for the last few weeks.

Diageo/Hotline   10/20 - 10/22   769 LV   3.5   48   43   Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby   10/20 - 10/22   1206 LV   2.9   52   40   Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post   10/19 - 10/22   1335 LV   2.5   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP              10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
GWU/Battleground   10/16 - 10/22   1000 LV   3.5   49   45   Obama +4
FOX News   10/20 - 10/21   936 LV   3.0   49   40   Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times   10/19 - 10/22   771 LV   --   52   39   Obama +13


ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1314 LV   2.5   52   45   Obama +7
Pew Research           10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
IBD/TIPP              10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
GWU/Battleground   10/20 - 10/26   1000 LV   3.5   49   46   Obama +3
Newsweek                    10/22 - 10/23   882 LV   4.0   53   41   Obama +12

But somehow their average became more realistic toward the end.

Rasmussen Reports        11/1 - 11/3   3000 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby  11/1 - 11/3   1201 LV   2.9   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
FOX News                        11/1 - 11/2   971 LV   3.0   50   43   Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   11/1 - 11/2   1011 LV   3.1   51   43   Obama +8

again, similarly to my post two-up, McCain is at 44 in all three of those polls, and that number is not an outlier relative to other polls, its Obama's number which shifts. Just like Trump is at 41-44% in all polls at present, whilst Clinton's number is much more variable. That's the result of different LV screens I guess, with the closer polls perhaps being stricter on these to promote the idea of a closer race...?