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  GA-Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Trump +2
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Author Topic: GA-Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Trump +2  (Read 3210 times)
Badger
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« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2016, 02:02:02 am »

Haven't seen her close to 27% with whites in any poll though...

Though i have a hard time seeing Trump get 44%--or even half that--among non-black ethnics.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #26 on: October 22, 2016, 02:14:58 am »

Haven't seen her close to 27% with whites in any poll though...

Though i have a hard time seeing Trump get 44%--or even half that--among non-black ethnics.

That's what I was thinking
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2016, 02:25:47 am »

She doesn't necessarily need 27%. She can get by with as little as 23% potentially; even less if Johnson actually does well. As I always say:

So if we assume that Clinton's white share of the vote (23%) remains identical/none of the "other partiers" break for her, females reinforce the black vote at Obama 2012 levels of support and the "other" racial groups go for Clinton by the same margin as in the poll (Clinton +22)...

Group% of VotersDem Support% of Vote
White590.2313.57
Black310.9529.45
Other100.616.1
Total10049.12

That's victory if Johnson takes 1.9 percent of the vote or more.

Idealistically, I know that if Clinton carried the same percentage of the vote across each race that the President did in 2008 in Georgia, then she'd win 50-51% of the vote from the likely 2016 electorate.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #28 on: October 22, 2016, 07:31:40 am »

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
Nunn got 92%, not 95%. Just thinking of the worst case scenarios... Same % of voters, but 92% gets her to 48.1%.

She can still win in that scenario though if Trump only gets 70% of the white vote (47.5%). That's a tough hurdle though, since McCain got 76% and Perdue got 74%, but maybe she can do it if enough GOP don't vote for him or vote Johnson/writein.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #29 on: October 22, 2016, 01:52:15 pm »

A followup story in today's AJC (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/22/ajc-poll-why-georgia-republican-politicians-are-sticking-with-trump/) has some insight into why most Georgia GOP officials are sticking with Trump.

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