Politico/Morning Consult: Clinton +6 (user search)
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  Politico/Morning Consult: Clinton +6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Politico/Morning Consult: Clinton +6  (Read 1240 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


« on: October 21, 2016, 09:01:14 AM »

Dems
Clinton 84%
Trump 8%
Johnson 2%
Stein 2%

GOP
Trump 78%
Johnson 9%
Clinton 6%
Stein 2%

Indies
Clinton 31%
Trump 27%
Johnson 16%
Stein 9%

As usual, Johnson draws more from Trump while Stein draws more from Clinton:

People who support Clinton in the 2-way matchup:
Clinton 89%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%
Trump 0%

People who support Trump in the 2-way matchup:
Trump 89%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%
Clinton 1%

men: Clinton +1
women: Clinton +9
income under $50k: Clinton +4
income $50-100k: Clinton +9
income over $100k: Clinton +5
whites: Trump +4
blacks: Clinton +61
Hispanics: Clinton +40
urban: Clinton +31
suburban: Clinton/Trump tie
rural: Trump +9
Midwest: Clinton +3
Northeast: Clinton +4
South: Trump +4
West: Clinton +16

fav/unfav %:
Pence 41/36% for +5%
Kaine 32/35% for -3%
McMullin 10/14% for -4%
Johnson 21/34% for -13%
Clinton 43/56% for -13%
Trump 37/61% for -24%

Relevant for 2020:
Paul Ryan 33/41% for -8%

So we have yet another poll which shows the West as Clinton’s strongest region…stronger than both the Midwest and Northeast.  Just what kind of numbers is she going to pull in California?

Also, looks like about a quarter of voters claim to have an opinion of McMullin.
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2016, 09:26:38 AM »

How does Muffin already have net negative favorable rating?

It's common for people with low name recognition to have negative favorabilities.  I think there's some fraction of poll respondents who just say "unfavorable" when they haven't heard of someone rather than "don't know".  Maybe they don't want to admit to being ignorant of the person in question, and feel it's safer to say "unfavorable" in case the person they don't know is someone awful?  I don't know.  But we've seen similar things before with unknown presidential candidates in the primaries.  E.g., O'Malley was getting #s like that early on when no one had heard of him yet.
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2016, 10:31:06 AM »

How does Muffin already have net negative favorable rating?

It's common for people with low name recognition to have negative favorabilities.  I think there's some fraction of poll respondents who just say "unfavorable" when they haven't heard of someone rather than "don't know".  Maybe they don't want to admit to being ignorant of the person in question, and feel it's safer to say "unfavorable" in case the person they don't know is someone awful?  I don't know.  But we've seen similar things before with unknown presidential candidates in the primaries.  E.g., O'Malley was getting #s like that early on when no one had heard of him yet.


More media exposure correlates with negative favorable rating.

I'm sorry, but that's just straight up false.  Politicians with very low name recognition are usually in the red on favorability.  Go back and look up the very early 2016 polls, and you'll see what I mean.  E.g., in this 2012 poll of Iowa, O'Malley and Schweitzer have rock bottom name recognition, and they're both net unfavorable:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_072312.pdf

In fact, I think PPP has tested the favorability of a fictitious name before, and the person ended up with a net unfavorable rating.
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