Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 17, 2020, 05:08:55 am
News: 2020 Mock/Endorsements for Presidential Primaries are now open.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-Opinion Savvy: Clinton +4
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: FL-Opinion Savvy: Clinton +4  (Read 1760 times)
ucscgaldamez1
Newbie
*
Posts: 14
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2016, 11:16:16 pm »

Two things that can give Trump supporters hope:

1. He is winning the I-4 Corridor by 8 (51-43%)
2. He is leading the early/absentee vote by 4 (51-47)

I am actually not that optimistic that Clinton will carry the state. Obama won when Democrats had a much larger registration edge in 2012. This will be an extremely close election and Trump may win here.
Logged
Southern Delegate matthew27
matthew27
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,674
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2016, 11:41:22 pm »

Lol,

Clinton is ahead of 2012 in the early vote and is leading in every poll, yet you think she is going to lose? lol
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,828
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2016, 01:11:24 am »

Two things that can give Trump supporters hope:

1. He is winning the I-4 Corridor by 8 (51-43%)
2. He is leading the early/absentee vote by 4 (51-47)

I am actually not that optimistic that Clinton will carry the state. Obama won when Democrats had a much larger registration edge in 2012. This will be an extremely close election and Trump may win here.

The margin of error on most state polls is about 4. That suggests that Hillary Clinton has about a 95% chance of winning Florida. Another poll corroborates this, so the chance that she wins Florida gets even higher -- around 97%.

1. The early votes cannot be changed. One might look at the demographics of early voters to project who wins. It could still be that the early voters trend toward Clinton and the later voters go for Trump. So what? Early or on election day, votes count just as much.

2. Donald Trump is quite possibly the most hated nominee for President by a major political party since George Wallace in 1968. If you think the disdain for Barack Obama was big due to race, wait till you see what people think of someone who grabs female crotches, enters women's changing rooms, brags about not paying taxes, and makes derogatory statements about people based on ethnicity and religion. Even if other groups aren't directly targeted (let us say Jews or Chinese-Americans), the well-educated among them recognize that the bigotry easily moves. Jews have good cause to distrust Islamophobia because Islamophobia has much in common with old-fashioned Jew-baiting. Chinese-Americans know that their status as a model minority hardly gives them safety in the event that something goes wrong in relations between the USA and China.

3. Republicans leading in the I-4 corridor  by 8%? Dubya won Florida that way by targeting NASCAR fans. That no longer works, as polls showing any Democratic leads in Florida have so indicated since 2008.

4. Hillary Clinton is ahead of Barack Obama at the same time in 2012. Four years ago, Florida was a tossup until Election Day.

5. There is no Republican (this time Trump) win of the Presidency without Florida. None. NONE!   

Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,725
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 22, 2016, 02:19:13 am »

Well, at least one state is consistent:

Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 22, 2016, 02:23:43 am »

I buy the margin, but NOT the cross-tabs.

The OP is a renowned concern-troll
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC