Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 24, 2019, 12:10:32 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  LA-Mason Dixon: Trump up by 20
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: LA-Mason Dixon: Trump up by 20  (Read 985 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 21, 2016, 01:41:33 pm »

54% Trump
34% Hillary
  2% Johnson
  1% Stein

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from October 17 through October 19, 2016. A total of 625 registered Louisiana voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

http://www.ksla.com/story/33437911/exclusive-poll-trump-holds-strong-lead-over-clinton-in-louisiana
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2016, 01:42:21 pm »

#TrumpUnder55
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2016, 01:56:52 pm »

Mason Dixon is a very bad pollster.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,284


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2016, 02:03:20 pm »

Mason Dixon is a very bad pollster.

That's true, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. Wink  Trump's going to win LA by a large margin.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2016, 02:04:40 pm »

Mason Dixon is a very bad pollster.

That's true, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. Wink  Trump's going to win LA by a large margin.
I seriously doubt it will be a margin larger than both 2008 and 2012 though.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,721
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2016, 02:05:38 pm »

New Poll: Louisiana President by Mason-Dixon on 2016-10-19

Summary: D: 34%, R: 54%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2016, 02:31:57 pm »

Mason Dixon is a very bad pollster.

That's true, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. Wink  Trump's going to win LA by a large margin.
According to 538 they have the same rating as PPP, B+. On average, they have been slightly better, but have had bigger R house effect (+1.0)

Though, you probably have another definition of being a bad pollster Roll Eyes
Logged
White Trash
Southern Gothic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,982


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2016, 02:35:54 pm »

Mason Dixon is a very bad pollster.

That's true, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. Wink  Trump's going to win LA by a large margin.
I seriously doubt it will be a margin larger than both 2008 and 2012 though.

Well, LA still has a substantial rural conservadem presence, and Trump is beating PVI just about everywhere that has a lot of them.  He's the closest thing they've seen to the state level populist Dems they love in a generation at the national level.  Throw in even a slight falloff in black turnout and it's easy for me to see how Clinton could lag Obama there.

Trump is nowhere near a Louisiana populist.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,473
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2016, 05:29:12 pm »

It's hard to imagine Clinton bagging less than 40% of the vote in LA....

People forget that LA actually swung towards Obama between '08 and '12, one of the few parts of the country other than WestTex that went against the national GE PVI grain.

I also have a pet theory about Trump significantly under-performing in the "oil patch" region (TX/LA/OK) that has been hit hard by the collapse of oil prices and Trump claiming "we should seize the Oil Fields of Iraq", which would further depress domestic American oil production with even further job losses for workers in the industry.

Lt's face it, this isn't a state with a strong tradition of 3rd party voting (Post George Wallace era), Whites in LA vote more like Mississippi or Alabama than Arkansas or Kentucky, and African American voters overwhelmingly vote Democratic, unlike some Northern States in the Midwest for example.

Bernie did not do spectacularly well in LA, so we're not talking about a ton of disaffected Dem primary holdouts going Stein or Johnson, although Bernie likely did well with Millennials, even in a heavily Black Primary electorate.

I call sketch on this poll, and think it will be closer to Trump +10-15, depending upon how the Catholic Cajuns swing, not to mention if some evangelical protestant types upstate in the Piney Woods decide to show up and vote for a top of ticket candidate who has recently taken a big hit on "values" in the post "Gropergate" era.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,290
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2016, 07:59:51 pm »

This should be one of the worst states for Johnson and Stein.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,473
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2016, 11:09:20 pm »

It's hard to imagine Clinton bagging less than 40% of the vote in LA....

People forget that LA actually swung towards Obama between '08 and '12, one of the few parts of the country other than WestTex that went against the national GE PVI grain.

I also have a pet theory about Trump significantly under-performing in the "oil patch" region (TX/LA/OK) that has been hit hard by the collapse of oil prices and Trump claiming "we should seize the Oil Fields of Iraq", which would further depress domestic American oil production with even further job losses for workers in the industry.

Lt's face it, this isn't a state with a strong tradition of 3rd party voting (Post George Wallace era), Whites in LA vote more like Mississippi or Alabama than Arkansas or Kentucky, and African American voters overwhelmingly vote Democratic, unlike some Northern States in the Midwest for example.

Bernie did not do spectacularly well in LA, so we're not talking about a ton of disaffected Dem primary holdouts going Stein or Johnson, although Bernie likely did well with Millennials, even in a heavily Black Primary electorate.

I call sketch on this poll, and think it will be closer to Trump +10-15, depending upon how the Catholic Cajuns swing, not to mention if some evangelical protestant types upstate in the Piney Woods decide to show up and vote for a top of ticket candidate who has recently taken a big hit on "values" in the post "Gropergate" era.

I hope you're right as Louisiana would be significant long term opening for Democrats, but I really think what's happening in Texas is sui generis.  The rest of the South (excluding Virginia, which can no longer be considered Southern for political purposes) seems to be falling back toward 2008-12 norms in recent weeks.  Even in NC, Clinton can't quite break out of the MOE.  I think a bunch of the undecided conservative Evangelicals actually came home for Trump in the last month.

What's driving the situation in Texas is less clear.  Could it all be explained by a massive increase in Latino turnout?  Or perhaps Kasich type inner suburb R's are a bigger force in Texas than I realized?   


White Trash likely has much better insights on LA politics than myself...

What I will say is that the LA/TX connection is extremely strong, as someone who lived in Houston in the early/Mid 2010s...

I had many friends/co-workers/ colleagues from when I lived in Houston, including people that worked the offshore rigs, the oil refineries in Baytown, as well as Exxon-Mobile corporate offices in the City as well as the Woodlands, as both direct hires and subcontractors.

There is a HUGE overlap with Houston and LA in the post-Katrina era, and even before as a result of the overlap of the Petro sector.

Domestic Katrina refugees are coming home from Houston, and other parts of Texas in very recent years.

Much of LA is rural/ small-town, so limited options for Clinton in suburban areas, other than Metro New Orleans....

Still. I will perform a prediction that Trump will win LA by <10%..... Canjun Queen vote comes g=home. Smiley


Logged
BeTo In DiSaRrAy
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,672
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2016, 12:55:59 am »

I wonder if McMullin will break 1%. He is on the ballot in LA.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines