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  Rasmussen: Clinton +3 (PA), Clinton +5 (NC), Clinton +6 (FL), Trump +1 (OH)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Clinton +3 (PA), Clinton +5 (NC), Clinton +6 (FL), Trump +1 (OH)  (Read 2160 times)
dspNY
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« on: October 22, 2016, 12:57:30 pm »

PA: Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3
FL: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 4, Stein 2
NC: Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3* (Stein is not on the ballot in NC)
OH: Trump 43, Clinton 42, Johnson 6, Stein 3

Poll done for Auto Alliance/ESA, which I assume is a Republican-leaning group

http://www.allianceesapoll.com/new-poll-results.html
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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2016, 12:58:38 pm »

+6 in FL and +5 in NC on behalf of a Rep-leaning group, GG
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2016, 01:00:03 pm »

Who would have thought that Rasmussen of all pollsters would have decided to snap the streak of 4 in Florida?
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republicanx
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2016, 01:01:22 pm »

shocking for PA closer than florida & nc?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2016, 01:02:23 pm »

shocking for PA closer than florida & nc?

Tough to say what's gone wrong here, but their PA # is farther from the recent consensus than their NC/FL #s are.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2016, 01:02:30 pm »

This poll also has options to show what the numbers would look liked based largely under either 2014 or 2012 turnout levels. For 2012 levels, it shows:
NC: Clinton +7
OH: Clinton +3
FL: Clinton +8
PA: Clinton +5
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2016, 01:02:33 pm »

loool@PA.

if clinton is going to win higher in NC and FL than pennsylvania, most polls have missed something big.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2016, 01:03:04 pm »

Maybe Rasmussen should explain how do these numbers match with their national polls.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2016, 01:03:05 pm »

Trump at 41 in PA/FL/NC. In a Rassy. Toast.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2016, 01:03:58 pm »

lolno, she's not up by only 3 in PA.
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2016, 01:04:14 pm »

There are scenarios for strong Clinton and strong Trump turnout in all four states.

FL, Strong Clinton: Clinton 48, Trump 40, Johnson 4, Stein 2
FL, Strong Trump: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2

NC, Strong Clinton: Clinton 47, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 3*
NC, Strong Trump: Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 3*

OH, Strong Clinton: Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3
OH, Strong Trump: Trump 46, Clinton 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2

PA, Strong Clinton: Clinton 45, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 3
PA, Strong Trump: Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 6, Stein 3
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2016, 01:04:32 pm »

OMG, this totally makes their national tracker look like a joke.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2016, 01:05:10 pm »

Either way, Trump can't win.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2016, 01:07:43 pm »

This poll also has options to show what the numbers would look liked based largely under either 2014 or 2012 turnout levels. For 2012 levels, it shows:
NC: Clinton +7
OH: Clinton +3
FL: Clinton +8
PA: Clinton +5

So their 2016 turnout model is more favorable to Trump than actual 2012 turnout.  This seems...odd.
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dspNY
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2016, 01:10:39 pm »

Senate polls to indicate effects on downticket:

FL: Rubio 47, Murphy 39
NC: Burr 46, Ross 45
OH: Portman 49, Strickland 38
PA: McGinty 44, Toomey 41
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2016, 01:10:45 pm »

OMG, this totally makes their national tracker look like a joke.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2016, 01:14:19 pm »

Maybe Rasmussen should explain how do these numbers match with their national polls.

Yep, you can throw the tracker in the trash.

Their state polling is in touch with reality though.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2016, 01:18:46 pm »

their state pollins has a pro-dem-bias, their national polling an even stronger pro-rep-bias.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2016, 01:22:44 pm »

I definitely don't buy Hillary doing better in NC/FL than PA. Those numbers look a bit D-friendly in NC/FL, and a bit R-friendly in OH/PA (more than a bit in PA.)
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2016, 01:28:31 pm »

LOL, even the strong R turnout option for PA doesn't have Trump ahead!
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Ljube
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2016, 01:32:06 pm »

LOL, even the strong R turnout option for PA doesn't have Trump ahead!

They are considering a strong R turnout, but Trump's support comes from both Pubs and Dems.
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dspNY
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2016, 01:33:53 pm »

LOL, even the strong R turnout option for PA doesn't have Trump ahead!

They are considering a strong R turnout, but Trump's support comes from both Pubs and Dems.


Practically zero polling shows Trump gaining anything more than 6-7% of Dems. If anything, Clinton is winning crossover R's at a far higher rate
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2016, 01:40:48 pm »

LOL, even the strong R turnout option for PA doesn't have Trump ahead!

They are considering a strong R turnout, but Trump's support comes from both Pubs and Dems.


Practically zero polling shows Trump gaining anything more than 6-7% of Dems. If anything, Clinton is winning crossover R's at a far higher rate

This. For every anti-trade dem that votes for Trump, there is a (somewhat) terrified republican voting for Clinton, Johnson, or McMullin.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2016, 01:43:12 pm »

NC voting to the left of PA might signal what is crudely known as a 'realignment'.
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Ljube
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2016, 01:46:19 pm »

LOL, even the strong R turnout option for PA doesn't have Trump ahead!

They are considering a strong R turnout, but Trump's support comes from both Pubs and Dems.


Practically zero polling shows Trump gaining anything more than 6-7% of Dems. If anything, Clinton is winning crossover R's at a far higher rate

This. For every anti-trade dem that votes for Trump, there is a (somewhat) terrified republican voting for Clinton, Johnson, or McMullin.

Maybe, but those Pubs might just stay home. Except for hacks.
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