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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24158 times)
Ronnie
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« Reply #100 on: October 24, 2016, 08:19:48 am »

No horserace numbers today, but they did release some extra crosstabs:

Affirmative support:
Clinton 56%
Trump 41%

Strong Enthusiasm:
Clinton 52%
Trump 49%

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #101 on: October 24, 2016, 08:26:35 am »

SUUUUUUUUUUUUUH-WEET SASSY MOLLASEY!!!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #102 on: October 24, 2016, 08:49:03 am »

+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.
Where are you getting 3-5% in Michigan? And yeah, FL/NC are usually 5 or so points to the right of the nation (see:2012). This makes perfect sense considering MOE. Now, it's a tracker, which is a perfectly valid reason to dump it. But otherwise the number checks out
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #103 on: October 24, 2016, 09:29:42 am »

To all the dips[Inks]ts in this thread, tell me the difference:





I'll have a go Smiley Romney was at 46-48 in all the 2012 polls, Trump is at 41-44 in all the 2016 ones. The difference between Clinton+12 and Trump +1 is really just Clinton's number. And Trump seems stuck in an unenviable position.

The second thing you can take from that is the continued strength of third-party polling this late in the game, which wasn't there in 2012. Will it hold up in two weeks time? Will it revert to Trump as NeverTrumpers crack, will it stick or will it flock to Hillary as some of the other polls suggest it might?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #104 on: October 24, 2016, 10:01:56 am »

I'll have a go Smiley Romney was at 46-48 in all the 2012 polls, Trump is at 41-44 in all the 2016 ones. The difference between Clinton+12 and Trump +1 is really just Clinton's number. And Trump seems stuck in an unenviable position.
Very intresting! I didn't notice it untill you said it.
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Arch
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« Reply #105 on: October 24, 2016, 11:48:22 am »

There's also the #atorover50 for HRC that wasn't there for Obama (with the exception of one poll).
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King
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« Reply #106 on: October 24, 2016, 12:00:39 pm »

"Waiting for NeverTrumpers to break" is stupid for multiple reasons.

One, a majority of Johnson/Stein support is Obama 2012/Bernie 2016 support, which is not going to consider Trump at all. They're more likely to not vote than to vote Trump.

Two, early voting is happening right now. Each passing day nothing changes for The Donald exponentially increases Hillary's chances of winning. If Trump doesn't take the lead in the RCP average by this time next week (and he won't) he will have 0% chance of winning, even if it is revealed Hillary is really an alien lizard person who eats babies.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #107 on: October 24, 2016, 08:25:08 pm »

Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #108 on: October 24, 2016, 08:25:43 pm »

Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??
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heatcharger
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« Reply #109 on: October 24, 2016, 08:30:28 pm »

Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??

It seems to be a 3-day moving average, so they'll probably release the next sets of numbers on the 26th, 29th, 2nd, 5th, and 8th. Just a guess.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #110 on: October 24, 2016, 08:30:40 pm »

+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.

can't read michigan polls? sad!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #111 on: October 24, 2016, 08:31:08 pm »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #112 on: October 24, 2016, 10:26:59 pm »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

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So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).
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Ronnie
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« Reply #113 on: October 24, 2016, 10:28:49 pm »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

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So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #114 on: October 24, 2016, 10:37:46 pm »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 10:42:10 pm by ProudModerate2 »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
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So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf

I understand that they released other numbers on other topics.
But a "daily" tracker poll, will ask the "main" question everyday, which in turn means that you have a newly computed number everyday (though it may be the same number as the day before).
So if this is a running 3-day tracker poll, you subtract the data from the oldest day, you add the new data from the new day polling you just completed, recompute and there you have the new number for release.
So this is what is odd to me.
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #115 on: October 24, 2016, 10:57:56 pm »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf

I understand that they released other numbers on other topics.
But a "daily" tracker poll, will ask the "main" question everyday, which in turn means that you have a newly computed number everyday (though it may be the same number as the day before).
So if this is a running 3-day tracker poll, you subtract the data from the oldest day, you add the new data from the new day polling you just completed, recompute and there you have the new number for release.
So this is what is odd to me.

It's possible that today's results looked outlier-ey in one direction or the other and, therefore, they didn't release.  I hope that's not the case, as that would make me question the integrity of their poll.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #116 on: October 25, 2016, 06:17:51 am »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 06:26:54 am by Castro »

UPDATE:

10/20-10/23: Clinton +12 (2-way and 4-way)
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 5%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 53%
Trump - 41%

All numbers are unchanged.



http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209&cid=abcnp_tco
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #117 on: October 25, 2016, 06:21:49 am »

I happen to think all of these tracking polls are garbage.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #118 on: October 25, 2016, 08:29:54 am »

I happen to think all of these tracking polls are garbage.

Agreed.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #119 on: October 25, 2016, 08:50:25 am »

I happen to think all of these tracking polls are garbage.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #120 on: October 25, 2016, 09:37:09 am »

Not all tracking polls are created equal.  If Clinton is leading by 7 in NC, then a 12 point national lead is certainly possible.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #121 on: October 25, 2016, 09:38:50 am »


Absolutely. Though I wish it would be true this time. Just imagine the orange-skinned clown’s face when he loses by twelve points nationally.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #122 on: October 25, 2016, 10:38:28 am »


Agree.
I'm just happy that it is "garbage" on the high-plus advantage for Hillary.
This way it offsets the garbage from IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen, in poll averaging.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #123 on: October 25, 2016, 10:44:48 am »

There's nothing about tracking polls in and of themselves that would make them worse than normal polls. The question is whether or not their methodology is sound. What do we know about this one's?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #124 on: October 25, 2016, 11:37:59 am »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 02:15:55 pm by Lief 🐋 »

Tracking polls are fine, it's just silly to pay attention to daily fluctuations. I think the way SurveyMonkey does it, releasing a result once a week, is better.
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