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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24165 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #125 on: October 25, 2016, 11:40:37 am »

Tracking polls are find, it's just silly to pay attention to daily fluctuations. I think the way SurveyMonkey does it, releasing a result once a week, is better.

This ABC almost seems to be a hybrid.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #126 on: October 25, 2016, 11:41:36 am »

Tracking polls are find, it's just silly to pay attention to daily fluctuations. I think the way SurveyMonkey does it, releasing a result once a week, is better.
The first time I agree with Lief Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #127 on: October 26, 2016, 06:08:04 am »

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dead-heat-congress-clintons-advantage-poll/story?id=43047979

Clinton 49% (-1)
Trump 40% (+2)
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%

Generic congressional ballot D+1
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #128 on: October 26, 2016, 06:10:04 am »

Wow that's a huge difference between Clinton lead ( + 9) and Generic lead for democrats (+1)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #129 on: October 26, 2016, 06:18:27 am »

Wait, I'm confused. Why did they skip Monday if this is a daily tracker?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #130 on: October 26, 2016, 06:19:21 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 06:22:24 am by Castro »

2-way numbers: Clinton 51%, Trump 43%.

Looks like this is going to be a daily updating 4-day tracking poll. Today's poll was from October 21-24.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #131 on: October 26, 2016, 06:21:55 am »

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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #132 on: October 27, 2016, 06:07:51 am »

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/791596547725201413
Clinton 48 Trump 42 today, Clinton + 6 (Oct 22-25)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #133 on: October 27, 2016, 06:10:32 am »

Continuing the trend of a Trump recovery with Republicans, while Clinton stays about the same.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #134 on: October 27, 2016, 11:59:39 am »

But there's "no tightening," I thought??

Roll Eyes
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #135 on: October 27, 2016, 12:02:37 pm »

But there's "no tightening," I thought??

Roll Eyes

The lead is insurmountable. Worrying about 'tightening' is absurd when there is a) an electoral firewall; and b) no collapse in Clinton's numbers - her floor is still above his ceiling.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #136 on: October 27, 2016, 12:07:09 pm »

But there's "no tightening," I thought??

Roll Eyes

The lead is insurmountable. Worrying about 'tightening' is absurd when there is a) an electoral firewall; and b) no collapse in Clinton's numbers - her floor is still above his ceiling.

Not absurd when she was +9 to +12 previously and flirting with a small but hopeful possibility of helping Democrats take the House.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #137 on: October 27, 2016, 12:10:30 pm »

But there's "no tightening," I thought??

Roll Eyes

MFW I completely ignore the recent Clinton hold or gain in the Hart/Suffolk/AP-GFK/PPP/YouGov polls to make a bad tightening joke:


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elcorazon
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« Reply #138 on: October 27, 2016, 12:10:55 pm »

But there's "no tightening," I thought??

Roll Eyes

The lead is insurmountable. Worrying about 'tightening' is absurd when there is a) an electoral firewall; and b) no collapse in Clinton's numbers - her floor is still above his ceiling.
problems with this theory:
1. There is still a little bit of time for people to change - numbers are closer than what would make me comfortable.
2. wikileaks/ clinton foundation/ e-mails - dumb voters can't be underestimated.
3. vote is not popular - it only takes a small shift for states like FL, NC, NV, OH, IA to go for Trump and then the margin is razor thin enough that some small region could swing it in any one state pretty much. remember despite all the firewall talk, if the election is a tie, Trump is more likely to win than Clinton.
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TC 25
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« Reply #139 on: October 27, 2016, 01:12:59 pm »

Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?
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« Reply #140 on: October 27, 2016, 01:14:36 pm »

Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?

I think this is more a case of regression to the norm. All of the other polls don't indicate of such a thing, but if you want to believe this, then go ahead.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #141 on: October 27, 2016, 01:15:07 pm »

How about we all realize the poll was an outlier and now has corrected than make other assumptions.  That may be better for you all.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #142 on: October 27, 2016, 01:16:59 pm »

The amount of dog sweat in this thread is reaching flash flood levels.  There is no tightening in the aggregate.  For every +5 Clinton poll there is a +9 and a +12.  Outliers on the low side are +3-4.  Outliers on the high side are +14-15.  Put on doggy deodorant and calm down.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #143 on: October 27, 2016, 01:35:38 pm »

Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?
lol
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Buh her emails!
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« Reply #144 on: October 27, 2016, 01:52:39 pm »

Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?

Beet? Is that you old buddy?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #145 on: October 28, 2016, 06:07:32 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #146 on: October 28, 2016, 06:09:29 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She probably hasn't... but we'll see how the other polls line up.

But I assume this will send some of our more delicate posters into some kind of tail-spin.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #147 on: October 28, 2016, 06:13:15 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't. Hence why tracking polls suck. Its best to poll over a set period of time and average the numbers. Some days will be R-friendly, some D-friendly, thats why you average and get a topline.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #148 on: October 28, 2016, 06:13:44 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #149 on: October 28, 2016, 06:19:28 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average Roll Eyes
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