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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23791 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #150 on: October 28, 2016, 06:20:52 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average Roll Eyes

Sassy doesn't suit you.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #151 on: October 28, 2016, 06:21:24 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average Roll Eyes

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
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alomas
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« Reply #152 on: October 28, 2016, 06:23:17 am »

She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #153 on: October 28, 2016, 06:32:21 am »

She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.

Pew - 6 points
Suffolk - 9 points
NBC - 9 points
AP -15 points

Sounds quite encouraging.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #154 on: October 28, 2016, 06:33:33 am »

She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.

Pew - 6 points
Suffolk - 9 points
NBC - 9 points
AP -15 points

Sounds quite encouraging.

I mean, it just sounds true as well... doesn't it?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #155 on: October 28, 2016, 06:41:51 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!
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alomas
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« Reply #156 on: October 28, 2016, 06:42:54 am »

RCP says the average is 4.5 not 9.75. And that's including three of those polls.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #157 on: October 28, 2016, 06:45:43 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #158 on: October 28, 2016, 06:46:09 am »

RCP says the average is 4.5 not 9.75. And that's including three of those polls.

RCP also includes daily updates of the L.A times tracking poll, Rasmussen tracking poll and IBD tracking poll to skew the average. The best aggregate is Huffington post f.y.i.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #159 on: October 28, 2016, 06:47:29 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?
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bilaps
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« Reply #160 on: October 28, 2016, 06:48:46 am »

RCP says the average is 4.5 not 9.75. And that's including three of those polls.

RCP also includes daily updates of the L.A times tracking poll, Rasmussen tracking poll and IBD tracking poll to skew the average. The best aggregate is Huffington post f.y.i.

The best aggregate being one that fits your narrative. Earthquake coming in Hillary world. Prepare yourself.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #161 on: October 28, 2016, 06:48:55 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.

Yep, thats abit racist.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #162 on: October 28, 2016, 06:49:49 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

The trackers are generally skewing lower, and the main polls, higher.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #163 on: October 28, 2016, 06:53:19 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

The trackers are generally skewing lower, and the main polls, higher.
Yeah a good amount of polls have fit into that range though, CNN, Fox News, Reuters/Ipsos, Yougov, Pew, NBC/Surveymonkey. It seems like the outliers are polls like Gravis, Rasmussen, and USC on the down side and AP, NBC, and USA Today on the upside.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #164 on: October 28, 2016, 06:55:24 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.
It was a responce to very offensive (Cry"Stop boofing drugs."
Would be nice if you condemn it as well? CryCryCry

Otherwise, it is a little bit hypocritical, don't you think so?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #165 on: October 28, 2016, 06:56:25 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #166 on: October 28, 2016, 06:58:13 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.
It was a responce to very offensive (Cry"Stop boofing drugs."
Would be nice if you condemn it as well? CryCryCry

Otherwise, it is a little bit hypocritical, don't you think so?

No. One is not nice, but a colloquialism "what are you smoking" etc, the other is racially loaded.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #167 on: October 28, 2016, 06:59:59 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #168 on: October 28, 2016, 07:01:52 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

Actually, if you look at the polling from 2008, the polls are actually very similarly.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #169 on: October 28, 2016, 07:02:17 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

I know, but pollsters herding their numbers to save their reputations is a constant recurrence in American politics.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #170 on: October 28, 2016, 07:08:25 am »

The main difference between now and 2008 is whether or not the slow downward trend for Clinton's lead continues, in 2008 the last minute polls had him surge and the final result for him was actually -0.3% from the RCP average, this year we likely we have 1 more major poll coming out from Fox, NBC, etc.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #171 on: October 28, 2016, 07:10:48 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?
Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

Actually, if you look at the polling from 2008, the polls are actually very similarly.
In what way? Marginwise? Yes, since Hillary is about +6-7 right now.

My point was though that you cannot blindly say: Obama under/overperformed polls in state X ( or nationally in 12) and won election, so will Clinton. We might see the same pattern though, and yeah, Clinton higly likely win this election.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #172 on: October 28, 2016, 07:11:50 am »

The main difference between now and 2008 is whether or not the slow downward trend for Clinton's lead continues, in 2008 the last minute polls had him surge and the final result for him was actually -0.3% from the RCP average, this year we likely we have 1 more major poll coming out from Fox, NBC, etc.

Obama's average didnt have to deal with 3 daily tracking polls either.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #173 on: October 28, 2016, 07:12:14 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

I know, but pollsters herding their numbers to save their reputations is a constant recurrence in American politics.
Just two last elections http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-polls-disagree-and-thats-ok/

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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #174 on: October 28, 2016, 07:25:33 am »

From the ABC article:  Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.
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