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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23776 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #175 on: October 28, 2016, 07:55:54 am »

We've clearly seen this season that if Trump goes 7 days without feuding with a Khizr Khan or Alicia Machado, some Republican voters' embarrassment fades and they "rally 'round" their candidate.

Clinton's going to win regardless, it's just about some Senate and House races at this point.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #176 on: October 28, 2016, 08:33:16 am »

So we are right back where we were pre-3rd debate, not awful. It really does appear it's more Republicans coming home than Clinton losing support.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #177 on: October 28, 2016, 10:07:57 am »

From the ABC article:  Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.
Of course the final polls are accurate. After the media tried to manipulate public opinion first. The early voting data does not support any D+9 or D+12 narrative or whatever nonsense this poll started with.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #178 on: October 28, 2016, 10:14:53 am »

As usual, trackers are junk.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #179 on: October 28, 2016, 11:31:53 am »

As usual, there is no difference between trackers and non-trackers. None. Literally none. I mean it Roll Eyes
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #180 on: October 28, 2016, 12:46:52 pm »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I dear say, drug-boofer, I am a resident of an affluent suburb and an alumnus of the prestigious Rutgers University.  I am also in a fraternity whom many a therapist are a member of.  Shall I call to see if I can get you an appointment for your destructive drug boofing?   
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Ebsy
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« Reply #181 on: October 28, 2016, 12:49:33 pm »

As usual, there is no difference between trackers and non-trackers. None. Literally none. I mean it Roll Eyes
Stupidity abounds.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #182 on: October 28, 2016, 12:59:58 pm »

Free-fall, it seems.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #183 on: October 28, 2016, 01:01:39 pm »

Get a grip.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #184 on: October 28, 2016, 01:14:29 pm »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I dear say, drug-boofer, I am a resident of an affluent suburb and an alumnus of the prestigious Rutgers University.  I am also in a fraternity whom many a therapist are a member of.  Shall I call to see if I can get you an appointment for your destructive drug boofing?   
We both know, you're not Roll Eyes
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #185 on: October 29, 2016, 06:03:35 am »

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/shift-electorates-makeup-tightens-presidential-contest-poll/story?id=43142198 Clinton 47, Trump 45 (Clinton + 2 ) in the 4 way today.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #186 on: October 29, 2016, 06:17:02 am »

Oh, Trump might have a chance after all.

Looking forward to more polls to confirm.
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bilaps
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« Reply #187 on: October 29, 2016, 07:14:55 am »

Wow, abc only +2 now and IBD +4, look at Hillary supporters for having a new favourite poll
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #188 on: October 29, 2016, 07:16:44 am »

This makes no sense.

As I've said, pollsters seem to have no clue what they are doing ...

How can you go from Hillary+13 to Hillary+2 in just a matter of days ?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #189 on: October 29, 2016, 07:18:06 am »

wasn't +12 before, isn't +2 right now.

it just has killed all the magic and the trust of ABC/WAPO.....
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #190 on: October 29, 2016, 07:19:38 am »

Its too soon for any email effect to show so this is all ABC.
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afleitch
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« Reply #191 on: October 29, 2016, 07:23:53 am »

It may mean they are struggling to weigh it correctly. All trackers, even more Hillary friendly ones initially seem to like moving down towards a tied race/Trump ahead. Launching it this late was always a risk.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #192 on: October 29, 2016, 07:27:49 am »

It may mean they are struggling to weigh it correctly. All trackers, even more Hillary friendly ones initially seem to like moving down towards a tied race/Trump ahead. Launching it this late was always a risk.

What is so special with trackers, you mean? Are they more difficult to weigh, you mean?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #193 on: October 29, 2016, 07:46:02 am »

Interesting also that Trump leads Indys by 16 in the WaPo tracker now and by 7 in the TIPP poll.

Which could mean that even if the early voting numbers are looking favourable for Hillary (more Dems voting early) it won't tell us much about the overall state of the race if the Indys are strongly for Trump ...
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #194 on: October 29, 2016, 07:50:54 am »

Image Link
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jaichind
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« Reply #195 on: October 29, 2016, 07:53:23 am »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 08:01:27 am by jaichind »

Funny how ABC/WaPo and IBD/TIPP are heading in opposite directions.  Just 3 days ago it was ABC/WaPo at Clinton +12 and IBD/TIPP was at Clinton +1.  Now it is Clinton +2 and Clinton +4 respectively.  I guess this is convergence toward the mean.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #196 on: October 29, 2016, 08:04:35 am »

Interesting also that Trump leads Indys by 16 in the WaPo tracker now and by 7 in the TIPP poll.

Which could mean that even if the early voting numbers are looking favourable for Hillary (more Dems voting early) it won't tell us much about the overall state of the race if the Indys are strongly for Trump ...
Intresting thought, actually. I have no clue, if you're right, but the  fact that unaffiliated voters have increased more than all other groups is intriguing...
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jaichind
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« Reply #197 on: October 29, 2016, 08:12:37 am »

A lot of it I think has to do with the fact that both candidates tends not to be that popular even with their supporters.  So as the ebb and flow of the news narrative voters for both candidates switch from indicating support for their candidate to indicating they are undecided or will not vote.  Most likely or not  most of them will vote and vote for their candidate.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #198 on: October 29, 2016, 09:09:53 am »

Well, this teaches us a lesson in statistical variance, but still....from +12 to +2 in a few days with no real news (before emails) is quite something.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #199 on: October 29, 2016, 10:03:02 am »

Ugh, and this is all before Comey's announcement.  The poll numbers next week might look ugly.
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