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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23771 times)
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #200 on: October 29, 2016, 10:18:10 am »

Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #201 on: October 29, 2016, 10:24:41 am »

Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? Roll Eyes
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dspNY
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« Reply #202 on: October 29, 2016, 10:25:23 am »

Well, this teaches us a lesson in statistical variance, but still....from +12 to +2 in a few days with no real news (before emails) is quite something.

That means their likely voter model is terrible
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #203 on: October 29, 2016, 10:29:16 am »

Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? Roll Eyes
No, but it shows that it really doesn't know what the number is.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #204 on: October 29, 2016, 10:30:46 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #205 on: October 29, 2016, 10:32:21 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #206 on: October 29, 2016, 10:35:07 am »

Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? Roll Eyes
No, but it shows that it really doesn't know what the number is.
They use presumably about the same model that always. The model that gave them A+ rating on 538. We don't have any evidence that it wouldn't work this election as well, do we?

And is it not hypocritical that Red Hacks always talk about LV, when they don't like results? Why did LV screen look good for, when this polls showed C+12?

As I always say: Average and move on. Average every single poll. Or just use 538/Upshot/HuffPost.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #207 on: October 29, 2016, 10:37:02 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #208 on: October 29, 2016, 10:37:53 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
I see none, just a sad troll who wants to get noticed by people.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #209 on: October 29, 2016, 10:40:10 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
I see none, just a sad troll who wants to get noticed by people.

I see no racism from police against Blacks, just a sad trolls protesting to get interviewed by CNN instead of working hard.

It is ok, when we do it!
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #210 on: October 29, 2016, 10:42:37 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
I see none, just a sad troll who wants to get noticed by people.

I see no racism from police against Blacks, just a sad trolls protesting to get interviewed by CNN instead of working hard.

It is ok, when we do it!
Yep, a troll.  Go off and troll someplace else.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #211 on: October 29, 2016, 11:00:46 am »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 11:02:19 am by HagridOfTheDeep »

Yeah, so basically what we can conclude from the polls is that no pollster really has a good idea of who's going to turn out, but also that there simply are not enough people willing to vote for Trump to put him over the top unless Hillary voters turn out in numbers lower than their lowest of low projections.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #212 on: October 29, 2016, 11:13:33 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Nate is apparantly is a sad troll as well Cheesy
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792396374042087424




EDIT: and one more https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792398796583997441
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #213 on: October 29, 2016, 11:17:58 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Nate is apparantly is a sad troll as well Cheesy
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792396374042087424




EDIT: and one more https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792398796583997441
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The same Nate Silver who didn't trust his data in the primaries, and now is over-correcting for the general?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #214 on: October 29, 2016, 11:18:35 am »

Yeah, so basically what we can conclude from the polls is that no pollster really has a good idea of who's going to turn out, but also that there simply are not enough people willing to vote for Trump to put him over the top unless Hillary voters turn out in numbers lower than their lowest of low projections.

yep. In my mind, it's either a small Clinton popular vote win with the slight possibility of a Trump Electoral college win, or a large Clinton popular vote win.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #215 on: October 29, 2016, 11:20:29 am »

And one more: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792399653660655616

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Nate Silver is sayint exactly what I've been saying.

Average and move on. But Atlas experts digs deep into each single poll and, even worse, in small subgroups and do "analysis", lol.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #216 on: October 29, 2016, 11:22:15 am »

Yeah, so basically what we can conclude from the polls is that no pollster really has a good idea of who's going to turn out, but also that there simply are not enough people willing to vote for Trump to put him over the top unless Hillary voters turn out in numbers lower than their lowest of low projections.

yep. In my mind, it's either a small Clinton popular vote win with the slight possibility of a Trump Electoral college win, or a large Clinton popular vote win.
That's why you vote early. So you don't forget. Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #217 on: October 29, 2016, 11:23:49 am »

The same Nate Silver who didn't trust his data in the primaries, and now is over-correcting for the general?
Before the primaries. He gave up directly after Iowa/NH more or less. But it was 16 dudes, and polls are generally pretty unstable there.

But yeah, he was wrong. Though, it has nothing to do with this tweet, has it?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #218 on: October 29, 2016, 11:26:26 am »

The same Nate Silver who didn't trust his data in the primaries, and now is over-correcting for the general?
Before the primaries. He gave up directly after Iowa/NH more or less. But it was 16 dudes, and polls are generally pretty unstable there.
But he didn't give up, he kept trying to say he was right, until he made a fool of himself and his site, now he is trying to over-correct the record.
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Hammy
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« Reply #219 on: October 29, 2016, 12:21:42 pm »

This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #220 on: October 29, 2016, 12:29:25 pm »

This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.
In what way did this poll indicate it?
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #221 on: October 29, 2016, 12:52:44 pm »

Lol at all this bed wetting.
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JJC
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« Reply #222 on: October 29, 2016, 01:06:53 pm »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.
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Arch
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« Reply #223 on: October 29, 2016, 01:08:12 pm »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

Huh I suggest you go look at the early vote thread with actual facts before you spew innuendo.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #224 on: October 29, 2016, 01:11:46 pm »

lol
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