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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23841 times)
dspNY
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« Reply #225 on: October 29, 2016, 01:15:44 pm »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

In every state where they polled voters who have already voted, Clinton is winning by larger margins than Obama did 4 years ago
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JJC
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« Reply #226 on: October 29, 2016, 01:20:05 pm »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

Huh I suggest you go look at the early vote thread with actual facts before you spew innuendo.

Okay.

Overall State – Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/24) of 10/27

◊ MAIL: 46,235 (+9,874 from 10/26) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/26 {+2.9% Lead up from 2.5% on 10/26 (+0.4%)}

Voted-by-Mail (Returned)

♦ Rep: 677,907 (+71,763 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 631,672 (+61,889 from 10/26)
Other: 40,982 (+3,972 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 258,824 (+29,338 from 10/26)
Total Returned: 1,609,385 (+166,962 from 10/26)

#Trump(Rep): 42.1% (+0.1% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 39.2% (-0.3% from 10/26)
Other: 2.5% (-0.1% from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 16.1% (+0.2% from 10/26)

◊ EARLY VOTE : 34,510 (+3,879 from 10/26) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/26 (+4.0% Lead down from 5.2% on 10/26 {-1.2%})

Early Voting (Only)

♦ Rep: 336,299 (+110,337 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 370,809 (+114,216 from 10/26)
Other: 20,052 (+6,522 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 136,899 (+47,626 from 10/26)
Total Voted: 864,059 (+278,701 from 10/26)

#Trump(Rep): 38.9% (+0.3% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 42.9% (-0.9% from 10/26)
Other: 2.3% (same from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 15.8% (+0.5% from 10/26)

NOTE: 16 Counties don’t start Early Voting until Saturday, October 29th. I looked at the Vote-by-Mail (Returned) for each County where the voting begins on the 29th and they had the following distribution:

#Trump(Rep): 40,748
#HRC(Dem): 30,304
Other: 2,888
No Part Affiliation: 12,082

Dade County:

◊ 2016 General Mail-in-Ballots

♦ Republicans – 60,694
♦ Democrats – 72,162
Other – 1,987
Independents – 34,404
Total Returned – 169,247

◊ 2016 General Early Voting

♦ Republicans – 29,441
♦ Democrats – 51,336
Other – 1,282
Independents – 21,158
Total Voted – 103,217

2012 Election Results Miami-Dade County

B. Obama (i) Dem – 61.6% Total Votes – 540,776
M. Romney GOP – 37.9% Total Votes – 332,602
G. Johnson Lib – 0.3% Total Votes – 2,270
J. Stein Grn – 0.1% Total Votes – 606

Hillary at 55.3% is doing 6 points worse than Obama did in 2012 at 61.6%.  Meanwhile Trump at 44.7% is doing 7 points better than Romney did in 2012 with 37.9%.

NC

2016 – D 46%, R 29%, I 25% (we are BEATING the spread from 2012 {Romney won the state by 2.5 points})
2012 – D 47%, R 29%, I 21%

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/27/update-florida-and-north-carolina-early-voteballot-data-show-advantages-for-donald-trump/
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Hammy
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« Reply #227 on: October 29, 2016, 01:22:06 pm »

This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.
In what way did this poll indicate it?

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf

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Second point on page two.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #228 on: October 29, 2016, 01:24:09 pm »

JJC, your mistake is comparing numbers now to final numbers.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #229 on: October 29, 2016, 01:32:46 pm »

LOL, what a junky poll. I could maybe buy a collapse of this magnitude if it was post-emails, but for no reason? Completely ridiculous. They should be embarrassed.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #230 on: October 29, 2016, 01:34:33 pm »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

"Trump is inevitable, look at these cherry picked stats from FL/NC!"

Uh...you know that FL/NC are must win states for TRUMP, not Hillary, right?
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« Reply #231 on: October 29, 2016, 01:35:46 pm »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

"Trump is inevitable, look at these cherry picked stats from FL/NC!"

Uh...you know that FL/NC are must win states for TRUMP, not Hillary, right?

Not to mention she's doing better in these states overall than in previous years.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #232 on: October 29, 2016, 01:39:09 pm »

Shocked beyond words that Deplorable Steve and pals don't understand early vote data.
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #233 on: October 29, 2016, 01:40:46 pm »

Why do you democrats overreact so much after bad polls?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #234 on: October 29, 2016, 01:44:41 pm »

Why do you democrats overreact so much after bad polls?

They do because the other candidate is a fascist demagogue that threatens American democracy and the safety of all minorities and political dissidents. A reasonable fear, if an necessary one since current numbers are fine.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #235 on: October 29, 2016, 01:49:08 pm »

This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.
In what way did this poll indicate it?

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf

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Second point on page two.
Ok, thanks. I read wrong pdf Embarrassed
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #236 on: October 30, 2016, 06:22:20 am »

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a82016ElectionTrackingNo8.pdf

Clinton 46% (-1)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  46% (+/-)


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heatcharger
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« Reply #237 on: October 30, 2016, 06:28:55 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #238 on: October 30, 2016, 06:29:26 am »

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

Umm... no.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #239 on: October 30, 2016, 06:30:58 am »

Lol, I've watched this poll everyday and ever since the first narrowing, I've predicted every one since then. Can you tell me what caused the drop from a 12% lead to an 8% lead and every narrowing since? No, you really can't. If you cannot explain such a dramatic shift in the race, I'd say there is something wrong with the poll (and do keep in mind that this dramatic shift was happening well before Friday's FBI announcement).
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #240 on: October 30, 2016, 06:31:33 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Either way, there are gong to be a lot of pollsters with ostrich egg on their faces. But this one is especially bad.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #241 on: October 30, 2016, 06:39:32 am »

This and IBD/TIPP have caused the 4 way Clinton lead to fall to +3.4 now
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #242 on: October 30, 2016, 06:42:09 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #243 on: October 30, 2016, 06:44:01 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #244 on: October 30, 2016, 06:45:20 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

That's brave of them.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #245 on: October 30, 2016, 06:49:25 am »

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #246 on: October 30, 2016, 06:51:08 am »

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

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They did it 3 days ago or so
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dspNY
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« Reply #247 on: October 30, 2016, 06:53:09 am »

The head to head matchup is unchanged at 49-46 Clinton. Looking at early vote numbers this measure looks to be more accurate since Johnson's and Stein's percentages in the early vote are way below what they are in public polls
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #248 on: October 30, 2016, 06:54:39 am »

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

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They did it 3 days ago or so

Are you sure? Both Nates (538 and Upshot) would complain about it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #249 on: October 30, 2016, 07:07:23 am »

Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
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