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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23612 times)
heatcharger
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« Reply #25 on: October 23, 2016, 08:37:48 am »

I've grown extremely skeptical of tracking polls this cycle, but it's true ABC/WaPo was quite accurate with it in 2012. It appears they cut out some of their normal questions to save money, which makes sense.

I wonder how 538 and friends will weight this considering it's an A+ polling outfit.
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Arch
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« Reply #26 on: October 23, 2016, 08:39:06 am »

What a thing of beauty. We need to see more polls though!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #27 on: October 23, 2016, 09:03:44 am »

And oh. Didn't this poll show tightning to +4 a while back?
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ReapSow
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« Reply #28 on: October 23, 2016, 09:04:01 am »

Mmmmmm...can't wait to see big headlines like  "MADAME PRESIDENT", "HILLARYSLIDE", "IT'S HER", "TRUMPED!", and "SHATTERED!" on November 9th.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #29 on: October 23, 2016, 09:06:32 am »

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 83%
Clinton 8%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Clinton 45%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

Trump in third place with blacks:
Clinton 82%
Stein 5%
Trump 3%
Johnson 2%

Overall crosstabs:
men: Clinton +3
women: Clinton +20
whites: Trump +4
blacks: Clinton +77 (over Stein)
Hispanics: Clinton +38
college grads: Clinton +25
non-college grads: Clinton +3
white college grads: Clinton +16
white non-college grads: Trump +19
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #30 on: October 23, 2016, 09:11:36 am »

Keep in mind in this poll Trump id improving Romney's score with Hospanics, that is obviously not going to happen Smiley
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #31 on: October 23, 2016, 09:17:59 am »

Keep in mind in this poll Trump id improving Romney's score with Hospanics, that is obviously not going to happen Smiley
OTOH, Trump will probably win whites by more than 4.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2016, 09:22:10 am »

Plugging this into 538's calculator, this could be enough to pick up GA, AZ, IN, MO, TX, and SC. AK and MS are also close.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #33 on: October 23, 2016, 09:41:27 am »

Sorry, Trump, but it is over Sad



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The Other Castro
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« Reply #34 on: October 23, 2016, 09:44:04 am »

Another detail to note: Johnson and Stein numbers are pretty stable, with this being the 3rd poll in a row from ABC/WaPo showing Johnson at 5%, and Stein's numbers wavering around 1-2%.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #35 on: October 23, 2016, 09:50:16 am »

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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #36 on: October 23, 2016, 10:49:00 am »

So, of those 5% of undecideds, how many are going to the McMuffin? If 1 or 2% are. That makes 3% that are truly undecided and if a lot of them stay home, I think things can be pretty stable unless they can prove that Clinton truly stole/bought/rigged things or does or find Trump shouting n-r-this and n-r-that on tape...or that one of them has been truly connected to organized crime.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #37 on: October 23, 2016, 11:06:36 am »

oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god
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Gass3268
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« Reply #38 on: October 23, 2016, 11:10:05 am »

oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god

If Clinton is truly winning by double digits and Republican enthusiasm continues to drop as it did in this poll, the House really could be in play.
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republicanx
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« Reply #39 on: October 23, 2016, 11:10:21 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #40 on: October 23, 2016, 11:11:36 am »

oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god

If Clinton is truly winning by double digits and Republican enthusiasm continues to drop as it did in this poll, the House really could be in play.

I was focusing on their fantasy 25% of Hispanics for Trump, but yes also enthusiasm.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #41 on: October 23, 2016, 11:12:24 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.
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republicanx
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« Reply #42 on: October 23, 2016, 11:13:45 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #43 on: October 23, 2016, 11:14:57 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #44 on: October 23, 2016, 11:15:44 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

ABC/WaPo had a tracking poll in 2012
and it was very accurate in the end. And yes, I could believe he's down 12 if he's tanking in traditional red states Texas, Arizona, and Indiana to name a few. Oh, and he's not doing any better than Romney in blue states.
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dspNY
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« Reply #45 on: October 23, 2016, 11:17:29 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

ABC/WaPo had a tracking poll in 2012
and it was very accurate in the end. And yes, I could believe he's down 12 if he's tanking in traditional red states Texas, Arizona, and Indiana to name a few. Oh, and he's not doing any better than Romney in blue states.

Nate Silver compared the blue, red and swing states from 2012 and said Clinton was doing about 2 points better in the swing states, even in the blue states and NINE points better in the red states than 2012
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #46 on: October 23, 2016, 11:18:16 am »

Texas is the reason why Clinton's national leads seem inflated - she's pretty close there even as other swing states aren't budging as far.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #47 on: October 23, 2016, 11:18:24 am »

The last 3 polls that are graded as "A+" by Nate Silver

ABC/WaPo +12 Clinton
Selzer +9 Clinton
Monmouth +12 Clinton
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republicanx
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« Reply #48 on: October 23, 2016, 11:20:19 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #49 on: October 23, 2016, 11:23:16 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

We were talking about the national vote. You said "we can all agree he won't be losing by 12", I responded how he could be, you said "we aren't talking about national vote!" It's becoming pretty clear you aren't the sort worth responding to.
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