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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23851 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #300 on: November 01, 2016, 07:22:55 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.

He leads all this time the LA Times poll and just a few days ago he was leading the IBD/TIPP poll. And of course he led many times at Rasmussen.

Yes, but many on this site claim that LA Times and Rasmussen are junk and not credible so I tried to find one that people on both sides of the partisan divide would say is a credible pollster regardless of what I might think.

Rasmussen was very very good in 2004 et 2008 but bad in 2000 et 2012.

You know, even pollsters having good reputation (mason-dixon, sellzer,...) can sometimes  be completely off (mason dixon in florida 2012, sellzer in gop caucus Iowa 2016,...)

So there are no polls that you can trust 100 %.

This election is probably the most difficult election to poll due to Trump and (maybe) some hidden Trump voters.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #301 on: November 01, 2016, 07:53:09 am »

At least all of this tightening should make for a dramatic election night. I still have a very hard time seeing how Trump gets to 270 EVs.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #302 on: November 01, 2016, 07:59:10 am »

At least all of this tightening should make for a dramatic election night. I still have a very hard time seeing how Trump gets to 270 EVs.

Cause there weren't so much polling from WI-CO-NV-PA kinds of states lately. If the tightening is that dramatic how this particular poll suggest, we will see Trump friendly states poll (as we saw in September, when state polls followed nationall polls).  It also would be nice to get some new nationall polls from Selzer/Fox/NBC/Marist/QU/Monmouth etc to see if the tightening is real Cheesy
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Seriously?
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« Reply #303 on: November 01, 2016, 08:40:28 am »
« Edited: November 01, 2016, 08:46:06 am by Seriously? »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.
My issue with the ABC poll is the Party ID reweigh, but I believe this poll is live call (w/Spanish), so I don't know how you can dicker on quality by the later metric. I believe on this site, the live call w/Spanish is considered the highest "quality."

The reweigh by Party ID greatly assists Hillary!
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elcorazon
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« Reply #304 on: November 01, 2016, 08:44:54 am »

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the 5 tossup states are all must wins for Trump. If Clinton wins any of them, she is President
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #305 on: November 01, 2016, 09:15:40 am »

Looks at this panicky liberal right here

Newt Gingrich Verified account
‏@newtgingrich
Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. Ignore polls
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King
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« Reply #306 on: November 01, 2016, 09:16:46 am »

20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #307 on: November 01, 2016, 09:33:35 am »
« Edited: November 01, 2016, 10:04:53 am by Happy Sad Trumpista »

Looks at this panicky liberal right here

Newt Gingrich Verified account
‏@newtgingrich
Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. Ignore polls

Lol, noone said. But being an outlier, doesn't matter that you can't get any usefull information out of the poll. In fact, you can.

Very simpified you can say that:

If you get +12, it means that you at worst at +7.
If you get +1,   it means that you at worst at -4.

So the poll sort of says, that there was at least 3% points shift. Very simplified.



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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #308 on: November 01, 2016, 10:08:32 am »

20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!
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Ljube
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« Reply #309 on: November 01, 2016, 10:13:26 am »

20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope it materializes like that!!! Smiley

Except, she will have the votes already cast/mailed. Sad
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #310 on: November 01, 2016, 10:14:20 am »

20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope it materializes like that!!! Smiley

Except, she will have the votes already cast/mailed. Sad


No worries, Putin is on the case to make America great.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #311 on: November 01, 2016, 10:20:20 am »

20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope it materializes like that!!! Smiley

Except, she will have the votes already cast/mailed. Sad


No worries, Putin is on the case to make America great.

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jaichind
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« Reply #312 on: November 02, 2016, 06:02:13 am »

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Back to tied 46-46-3-2
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #313 on: November 02, 2016, 06:05:36 am »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 06:11:00 am by Happy Sad Trumpista »

4-way
Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump  46 (-)
Johson   3 (-)
Stein      2 (-)

2-way
Clinton 48 (-)
Trump  47 (-)

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ReapSow
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« Reply #314 on: November 02, 2016, 06:57:23 am »

4-way
Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump  46 (-)
Johson   3 (-)
Stein      2 (-)

2-way
Clinton 48 (-)
Trump  47 (-)

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She's surging! Poll must be rigged again!
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jaichind
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« Reply #315 on: November 03, 2016, 06:04:47 am »

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Clinton back in lead

Clinton    47
Trump    45
Johnson   3
Stein       2
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #316 on: November 03, 2016, 06:06:29 am »

Something Something *Comey effect*
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jaichind
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« Reply #317 on: November 03, 2016, 06:08:36 am »

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The regional breakdown  seems favorable to Trump implying a lot of wasted Clinton votes in the Northeast but Trump with an advantage in the Midwest.  This poll would imply that Trump should focus on states like WI and MI to get him over the top and forget about PA NH. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #318 on: November 03, 2016, 06:10:09 am »

Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.
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jaichind
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« Reply #319 on: November 03, 2016, 06:24:44 am »

Dollar index adjusted value of Mexican Peso (MXN) jumped 0.3% when this poll came out.  Of course it is still down by around 4.5% from when the FBI news came out friday.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #320 on: November 03, 2016, 06:26:00 am »

Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.
A tie - Clinton + 3 race? Yeah
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dspNY
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« Reply #321 on: November 03, 2016, 06:33:16 am »

I think the demographic breakdown is a misread of the electorate. Think African-American turnout will be 11% of the electorate but Hispanic will be 13% (look at the early vote surge) and others will be 3-4%
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Lok
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« Reply #322 on: November 03, 2016, 06:36:11 am »

Trump getting 13% of liberals makes me sick inside.

Also, Clinton is up despite the majority of responses in this poll are coming from Trump's two best regions.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #323 on: November 03, 2016, 06:36:45 am »

Absolutely SMASHING!  The media had their circus and now are quickly trying to save face after Muh Surge.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #324 on: November 03, 2016, 07:06:11 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 07:10:26 am by Castro »

Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%


I tried to get the 538 state flipper to match the electorate sizes in this poll, and it would probably take a MASSIVE black collapse: http://53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#NCEW:0.621;0.568,CEW:0.531;0.727,Black:0.058;0.485,Latino:0.217;0.419,A/O:0.295;0.549,3:0.05
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