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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23857 times)
Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #250 on: October 30, 2016, 07:21:44 am »

Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?
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dspNY
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« Reply #251 on: October 30, 2016, 07:24:50 am »

Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #252 on: October 30, 2016, 07:25:36 am »

Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad
Numbers?
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dspNY
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« Reply #253 on: October 30, 2016, 07:29:04 am »

Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad
Numbers?

You had 14% of Republicans saying he should drop out of the race and another 9% say their congressman/congresswoman should disavow him
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JJC
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« Reply #254 on: October 30, 2016, 11:03:40 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Well it was never a 12 point race to begin with.

Honestly the polls have been so chaotic that I'm at the point of just ignoring them completely. It's all about which poll can correctly predict how the turnout on election day will look like. And I don't think anyone has a clue.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #255 on: October 30, 2016, 01:15:32 pm »

Yeah it's borderline unethical to change your methodology in the middle of conducting a tracker poll and then not elaborate.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #256 on: October 30, 2016, 01:31:42 pm »
« Edited: October 30, 2016, 01:33:30 pm by Happy Sad Trumpista »

Yeah it's borderline unethical to change your methodology in the middle of conducting a tracker poll and then not elaborate.

No, they didn't change the model.

It seems like someone missunderstood (or "missunderstood" Roll Eyes )their note about ~"voters' preferences didn't change, their intentions did". But the model itself is unchanged.

One may argue, if the model is good, but when it showed C+12 (bc of low enthusiasm among Reps), it was OK...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #257 on: October 30, 2016, 01:32:11 pm »

I think this has gotten about as close as it's going to get - Clinton at 49% in the two-way, 46% in the three-way. We'll see tomorrow, though.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #258 on: October 30, 2016, 01:33:20 pm »

i predict, 2 or 3 of the trackers are going to show a trump lead, up to two points, during the next week.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #259 on: October 31, 2016, 06:07:31 am »

No change in the 4 way today, still Clinton + 1, 2 way narrowed to a 2 point lead, 49-47 Clinton
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jaichind
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« Reply #260 on: October 31, 2016, 06:14:03 am »

Clinton's fav/unfav at 38/60 now a bit worse than Trump 39/58.  Kinds of prove that axiom in this election that whoever is in the news more will have worse favorables.  It was Trump in most of October and now it is Clinton's turn.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #261 on: October 31, 2016, 06:16:18 am »

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #262 on: October 31, 2016, 06:16:43 am »

So with two days of the FBI stuff in no change.  Still think the poll is sh**t but not bad.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #263 on: October 31, 2016, 06:18:48 am »


Have they been tracking this too? Because if that's the model they're working with, their results make a lot more sense.
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jaichind
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« Reply #264 on: October 31, 2016, 06:21:11 am »

So far the FBI email story has not hurt Clinton that much yet although her favorables are being hit which could hurt her chances of picking up undecided.  This poll is from 10/29.  It would be interesting to see 10/30 and 10/31 when all the Sunday talk shows had a chance to talk about this topic.
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afleitch
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« Reply #265 on: October 31, 2016, 06:25:01 am »

The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #266 on: October 31, 2016, 06:26:00 am »

The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.


Wut.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #267 on: October 31, 2016, 06:28:50 am »

Don't mind the wizard behind the curtain weighting party ID to D+10 to help Hillary keep the lead.

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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423&cid=abcn_tco

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http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-tracking-poll-october-25-28/2115/
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #268 on: October 31, 2016, 06:31:52 am »


Do we need to go through this with you every four years?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #269 on: October 31, 2016, 06:33:37 am »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 06:40:14 am by Happy Sad Trumpista »

Yes
Because if that's the model they're working with, their results make a lot more sense.
They didn't change the model.


The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.

Link? They usually don't report this.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #270 on: October 31, 2016, 06:44:13 am »


Do we need to go through this with you every four years?
Nope, but I'd like to know why ABC/WaPost is weighing for Party ID when all I hear from you folks is that pollsters shouldn't. So please give me an explanation on that.
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alomas
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« Reply #271 on: October 31, 2016, 06:56:51 am »

Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

Smiley

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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #272 on: October 31, 2016, 06:57:56 am »

Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

Smiley


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #273 on: October 31, 2016, 07:00:52 am »

Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

Smiley


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #274 on: October 31, 2016, 07:04:18 am »

Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

Smiley


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.
Again, why is ABC reweighing for Party ID? All I have been told here is that that is not the way reputable pollsters do things.
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