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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23813 times)
JerryArkansas
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« Reply #275 on: October 31, 2016, 07:05:25 am »

Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

Smiley


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.
Again, why is ABC reweighing for Party ID? All I have been told here is that that is not the way reputable pollsters do things.
The poll is sh**t, but you remember when you did this four years ago, it didn't turn out so well, and you stopped posting for four years.
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RalstonSucks
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« Reply #276 on: October 31, 2016, 07:19:27 am »

Guys.... the polls are tightening what do we do what do we do what do we do?
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Ljube
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« Reply #277 on: October 31, 2016, 08:10:36 am »

Guys.... the polls are tightening what do we do what do we do what do we do?

Sit back and enjoy the ride. Smiley
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #278 on: October 31, 2016, 02:09:56 pm »

Guys.... the polls are tightening what do we do what do we do what do we do?

Move along, nothing to see here. All is well. Hillary will still win Texas.

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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #279 on: November 01, 2016, 06:03:34 am »

Trump 46%
Clinton 45%
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #280 on: November 01, 2016, 06:06:53 am »

Well, there we go.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #281 on: November 01, 2016, 06:08:31 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #282 on: November 01, 2016, 06:09:28 am »

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-1)
Johnson 3% (-1)
Stein      2% (+0)
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jaichind
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« Reply #283 on: November 01, 2016, 06:11:32 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #284 on: November 01, 2016, 06:13:47 am »

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #285 on: November 01, 2016, 06:15:44 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #286 on: November 01, 2016, 06:17:26 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #287 on: November 01, 2016, 06:18:14 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.

He leads all this time the LA Times poll and just a few days ago he was leading the IBD/TIPP poll. And of course he led many times at Rasmussen.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #288 on: November 01, 2016, 06:20:18 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.
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jaichind
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« Reply #289 on: November 01, 2016, 06:21:39 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.

He leads all this time the LA Times poll and just a few days ago he was leading the IBD/TIPP poll. And of course he led many times at Rasmussen.

Yes, but many on this site claim that LA Times and Rasmussen are junk and not credible so I tried to find one that people on both sides of the partisan divide would say is a credible pollster regardless of what I might think.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #290 on: November 01, 2016, 06:22:43 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.

Tracker is just a nationall poll on daily basis. Methodologi is the same. And if methodology is good (you were happy with it when it showed good news) the more data, the better.

It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #291 on: November 01, 2016, 06:26:27 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.

Tracker is just a nationall poll on daily basis. Methodologi is the same. And if methodology is good (you were happy with it when it showed good news) the more data, the better.

It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Again, 538 is not gospel.
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jaichind
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« Reply #292 on: November 01, 2016, 06:34:48 am »

With this RCP 4 way average is down to Clinton +2.5  I wonder what Rasmussen will come out with today.
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jaichind
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« Reply #293 on: November 01, 2016, 06:36:37 am »

As soon as this poll came out the dollar index adjusted value of Mexican Peso (MXN) dropped 0.5%
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #294 on: November 01, 2016, 06:39:42 am »
« Edited: November 01, 2016, 06:41:38 am by Castro »

Funny enough, the ABC tracker one week out in 2012 had Romney +1.

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jaichind
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« Reply #295 on: November 01, 2016, 06:45:28 am »

Funny enough, the ABC tracker one week out in 2012 had Romney +1.

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Yes, but I recall the last pre-election poll a day before the election had Obama+3 since it was clear that Obama had the momentum the last week of the election.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #296 on: November 01, 2016, 06:50:39 am »

This tightening will test the strength of the friewal
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #297 on: November 01, 2016, 07:07:07 am »

USA, it is all about turnout.

Percent "very enthusiastic" about each candidate over time

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #298 on: November 01, 2016, 07:10:50 am »

USA, it is all about turnout.

Percent "very enthusiastic" about each candidate over time

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Hence, why her support has dropped. They fall out of the likely voter screen, doesnt mean they arent voting.
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Umengus
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« Reply #299 on: November 01, 2016, 07:16:29 am »

"The latest results, while steady for seven nights, reflect a sharp turnaround from a large Clinton lead in the first four nights of tracking, which were a particularly difficult news cycle for Trump. "
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