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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24163 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #325 on: November 03, 2016, 07:20:22 am »

2-way:
Clinton 49 (+1)
Trump 47  (--)


Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.
Literally every tracking poll? Like what?
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Panda Express
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« Reply #326 on: November 03, 2016, 07:23:17 am »

Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #327 on: November 03, 2016, 07:29:18 am »

Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%


I tried to get the 538 state flipper to match the electorate sizes in this poll, and it would probably take a MASSIVE black collapse: http://53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#NCEW:0.621;0.568,CEW:0.531;0.727,Black:0.058;0.485,Latino:0.217;0.419,A/O:0.295;0.549,3:0.05

Yea, you can throw a couple more points on the board for Our Dear Hillary.  Couple that in with GOTV operation differences (aka a great one vs. none at all) and I'm not moving one inch off my prediction. 
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #328 on: November 03, 2016, 07:36:14 am »

Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hBjj-wKuP1M
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #329 on: November 03, 2016, 07:37:46 am »

Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?

Dude, you f**king kidding me. Trump shoots himself in the foot on weekly basis, has LITERALLY no classic GOTV, and he's still inside a MOE Smiley
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Hollywood
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« Reply #330 on: November 03, 2016, 07:43:23 am »

Black Vote will be down this year.  Its been down in early voting and ballot requests.  10% might really become reality on election.  Hispanic and White vote share will increase, given how energized both groups seem to be demonstrating. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #331 on: November 03, 2016, 08:09:26 am »

Black Vote will be down this year.  Its been down in early voting and ballot requests.  10% might really become reality on election.  Hispanic and White vote share will increase, given how energized both groups seem to be demonstrating. 

It's been going back up in NC, OH, and FL the last couple of days after a very slow start. Matching results when Obama ran for office is not realistic but turnout looks to be solid.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #332 on: November 03, 2016, 08:12:09 am »

Clinton +2 in one day? She's surging, he's collapsing! Polls are rigged again!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #333 on: November 03, 2016, 08:48:31 am »

That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #334 on: November 03, 2016, 09:20:49 am »

That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Intresting. So Trump now has worse entusiasm margin than when he was behind 12%. It means, that entusiasm wasn't a main reason, why the race has tightened.

It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

Smiley
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Brittain33
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« Reply #335 on: November 03, 2016, 09:24:13 am »

It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

Yes, conservatives and Republicans moving from Johnson to Trump is the big story of the last two weeks.
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Hammy
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« Reply #336 on: November 03, 2016, 03:27:27 pm »

That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.

Do you think the effects dying out, or might they actually be backfiring with Comey himself at the center of the scandal?
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Lok
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« Reply #337 on: November 03, 2016, 03:29:05 pm »

That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.

Do you think the effects dying out, or might they actually be backfiring with Comey himself at the center of the scandal?
I have been thinking that this scandal could have backfired, but I'll wait a couple more days for more polling.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #338 on: November 03, 2016, 03:29:41 pm »

Trump getting 13% of liberals makes me sick inside.

Also, Clinton is up despite the majority of responses in this poll are coming from Trump's two best regions.

People like the Amazing Atheist and Sargon of Akkad identify as "liberals" for what it's worth.
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Beef
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« Reply #339 on: November 03, 2016, 04:25:57 pm »

Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?

Thanks for the image.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #340 on: November 03, 2016, 08:08:46 pm »

Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%

I hate to say it, but Nate Cohn agrees with you.


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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794343177553592324
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jaichind
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« Reply #341 on: November 04, 2016, 06:02:26 am »



Clinton +3 now

Clinton     47
Trump      44
Johnson     3
Stein         2
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heatcharger
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« Reply #342 on: November 04, 2016, 06:06:18 am »

Looks like those Trmp-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.
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jaichind
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« Reply #343 on: November 04, 2016, 06:08:06 am »

Dollor index adjusted Mexican Peso (MXN) jumped 0.3% on news of this poll. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #344 on: November 04, 2016, 06:12:07 am »

What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.
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bilaps
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« Reply #345 on: November 04, 2016, 06:14:14 am »

What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.

really dude? smoking some stuff this early? hilary was a part of administration.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #346 on: November 04, 2016, 06:19:35 am »

What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.

really dude? smoking some stuff this early? hilary was a part of administration.
...And? Huh
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #347 on: November 04, 2016, 06:25:48 am »

What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.

really dude? smoking some stuff this early? hilary was a part of administration.
...And? Huh

Didn't you hear the news dude? She was running a pedophile sex ring while she was SoS.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!!

http://yournewswire.com/fbi-clinton-email-pedophile-ring/
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Dumbo
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« Reply #348 on: November 04, 2016, 06:47:03 am »

4-point-surge in just 3 days
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #349 on: November 04, 2016, 06:57:57 am »

Yeah, the race bounces back Sad

Still inside Brexit margin Cheesy

Putin/Comey should go to breaking news again...
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