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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24104 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #375 on: November 04, 2016, 06:15:48 pm »

Thanks, Ozymandias.

It is really intresting. IDK, why other didn't look into this Smiley

The data is still little bit noise. Jews 2% = ~80, but still quite intresting!
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dspNY
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« Reply #376 on: November 04, 2016, 06:16:26 pm »

I actually think the non-white, non-black, non-Hispanic data is more interesting...

Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch  1m1 minute ago
Clinton leading with Jews 73%-18% via ABC/Post poll aggregate of 4,613 interviews since Oct 20 (to look at small sample size groups)



Palm Beach County swings to Clinton (heavy Jewish vote in that county)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #377 on: November 04, 2016, 06:52:10 pm »

Interesting tidbit:

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #378 on: November 05, 2016, 02:59:16 am »

So the thing that has dogged Hillary the entire campaign and kept Trump afloat through his constant campaign ending gaffes, controversies, etc. was the fact that the American public has the attention span of a goldfish and is incapable of caring about any event, no matter how big, for more than a week. For once the stupidity of Americans has worked in Hillary's favor. LOL
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #379 on: November 05, 2016, 06:18:57 am »

Interesting tidbit:

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Technically that's a higher topline number for Obama, but that is good news. Hopefully Hillary can close out strong
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #380 on: November 05, 2016, 11:04:12 pm »

Clinton +5

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300
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heatcharger
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« Reply #381 on: November 05, 2016, 11:04:28 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 11:07:23 pm by heatcharger »

Looks like those Trump-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.

I called it folks! New numbers from Nov. 1-4:

Clinton 48%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
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« Reply #382 on: November 05, 2016, 11:04:50 pm »

Looks like those Trump-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.

I called it folks!

Clinton 48%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Clinton 49%
Trump 44%

Up up up!
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dspNY
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« Reply #383 on: November 05, 2016, 11:06:38 pm »


Nice!!!
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #384 on: November 05, 2016, 11:07:47 pm »

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #385 on: November 05, 2016, 11:08:10 pm »

Remember, trackers suck.

But a positive trend
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peterthlee
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« Reply #386 on: November 05, 2016, 11:08:28 pm »

BANZAI!!!!!!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #387 on: November 05, 2016, 11:08:48 pm »

BEAUTIFUL
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darthpi
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« Reply #388 on: November 05, 2016, 11:10:25 pm »

Looking more plausible that the shift we saw after the Comey disclosure was mostly just non-response, with not too many voters actually changing their minds. Still nervous, but edging away from panic.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #389 on: November 05, 2016, 11:15:13 pm »

Yeah, I think it's gonna turn out that Comey happened just a little too early. Would have been real trouble had it landed today. Now, as it is, it'll roll off almost entirely by Tuesday.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #390 on: November 05, 2016, 11:16:04 pm »

i am nervous as hell atm....too many state polls (and i don't mean those from "National Future Research Global Marketing Inititative (R)) with twisted results.

in the best case, imho, there is going to be a re-aligment of state, sub-groups and congressional districts.
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Holmes
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« Reply #391 on: November 05, 2016, 11:19:19 pm »

i am nervous as hell atm....too many state polls (and i don't mean those from "National Future Research Global Marketing Inititative (R)) with twisted results.

in the best case, imho, there is going to be a re-aligment of state, sub-groups and congressional districts.

The realignment is that Democrats and Republicans trade Iowa and North carolina, and that between Florida and Ohio, Florida now becomes the more Democratic battleground state.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #392 on: November 05, 2016, 11:38:21 pm »

The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5
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Oakvale
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« Reply #393 on: November 05, 2016, 11:39:10 pm »

Almost as if trackers are junk.

🤔
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #394 on: November 05, 2016, 11:44:06 pm »

The Friday write-up said that Monday was one of her best nights, so the fact that she went up today despite Monday dropping off is TREMENDOUS news!
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #395 on: November 05, 2016, 11:45:00 pm »


Yup.

Honestly, at this point, I'm wondering if there's any point in following polls at all. They really aren't telling us anything of value right now.
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #396 on: November 05, 2016, 11:46:49 pm »


Oh that's bad news for Trump. 😁
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Ebsy
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« Reply #397 on: November 06, 2016, 12:04:49 am »

Would not be surprised if this ends up as the most accurate poll when all is said and done.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #398 on: November 06, 2016, 12:05:38 am »

The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5

Can you show the link?
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Hammy
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« Reply #399 on: November 06, 2016, 01:32:04 am »

The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5

Makes sense given how close NC/NH/FL are and the likelihood of Trump winning by 4-6 points in AZ/GA.
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