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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23840 times)
jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: October 29, 2016, 07:53:23 am »
« edited: October 29, 2016, 08:01:27 am by jaichind »

Funny how ABC/WaPo and IBD/TIPP are heading in opposite directions.  Just 3 days ago it was ABC/WaPo at Clinton +12 and IBD/TIPP was at Clinton +1.  Now it is Clinton +2 and Clinton +4 respectively.  I guess this is convergence toward the mean.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,344
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 08:12:37 am »

A lot of it I think has to do with the fact that both candidates tends not to be that popular even with their supporters.  So as the ebb and flow of the news narrative voters for both candidates switch from indicating support for their candidate to indicating they are undecided or will not vote.  Most likely or not  most of them will vote and vote for their candidate.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,344
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2016, 06:14:03 am »

Clinton's fav/unfav at 38/60 now a bit worse than Trump 39/58.  Kinds of prove that axiom in this election that whoever is in the news more will have worse favorables.  It was Trump in most of October and now it is Clinton's turn.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 06:21:11 am »

So far the FBI email story has not hurt Clinton that much yet although her favorables are being hit which could hurt her chances of picking up undecided.  This poll is from 10/29.  It would be interesting to see 10/30 and 10/31 when all the Sunday talk shows had a chance to talk about this topic.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 06:11:32 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 06:21:39 am »

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.

He leads all this time the LA Times poll and just a few days ago he was leading the IBD/TIPP poll. And of course he led many times at Rasmussen.

Yes, but many on this site claim that LA Times and Rasmussen are junk and not credible so I tried to find one that people on both sides of the partisan divide would say is a credible pollster regardless of what I might think.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 06:34:48 am »

With this RCP 4 way average is down to Clinton +2.5  I wonder what Rasmussen will come out with today.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 06:36:37 am »

As soon as this poll came out the dollar index adjusted value of Mexican Peso (MXN) dropped 0.5%
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 06:45:28 am »

Funny enough, the ABC tracker one week out in 2012 had Romney +1.

Image Link

Yes, but I recall the last pre-election poll a day before the election had Obama+3 since it was clear that Obama had the momentum the last week of the election.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 06:02:13 am »

Image Link

Back to tied 46-46-3-2
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 06:04:47 am »

Image Link

Clinton back in lead

Clinton    47
Trump    45
Johnson   3
Stein       2
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 06:08:36 am »

Image Link

The regional breakdown  seems favorable to Trump implying a lot of wasted Clinton votes in the Northeast but Trump with an advantage in the Midwest.  This poll would imply that Trump should focus on states like WI and MI to get him over the top and forget about PA NH. 
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 06:24:44 am »

Dollar index adjusted value of Mexican Peso (MXN) jumped 0.3% when this poll came out.  Of course it is still down by around 4.5% from when the FBI news came out friday.
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 06:02:26 am »

Image Link

Clinton +3 now

Clinton     47
Trump      44
Johnson     3
Stein         2
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 06:08:06 am »

Dollor index adjusted Mexican Peso (MXN) jumped 0.3% on news of this poll. 
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,344
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2016, 07:04:21 am »

Image Link

Clinton by 4

Clinton    47
Trump    43
Johnson   4
Stein       2
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