So many things...
No evidence that Trump is doing better than Romney in New York.
Trump is not close in Pennsylvania and is likely losing by nearly double digits. Same with Michigan.
Losing 10% in Texas is going to hurt your national popular vote. So is getting blown out in California by a historic margin, as seems to be the case.
Trump is doing worse than Romney in a number of mid-sized states (Maryland, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona...) by about 5 points. Romney lost in 2012 by 4 points. 4+5 is very close to 12, especially with margin of error.
McMullin could take an additional 300 to 400k votes from Trump in Utah and Idaho, compared to Romney.
All this adds up.
If you look at the RCP average for polls conducted in October (or the only 1-2 polls conducted in October if there's not enough for an average) you get this swing map from 2012 -> 2016:
>30% shade: 1-5 points
>50% shade: 5-10 points
>90% shade: 10+ points
So yeah, it's a pretty clear picture of Trump underperforming Romney overall, even if you assume most of the gray states swing to him.