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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23606 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: October 23, 2016, 09:22:10 am »

Plugging this into 538's calculator, this could be enough to pick up GA, AZ, IN, MO, TX, and SC. AK and MS are also close.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 09:44:04 am »

Another detail to note: Johnson and Stein numbers are pretty stable, with this being the 3rd poll in a row from ABC/WaPo showing Johnson at 5%, and Stein's numbers wavering around 1-2%.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2016, 06:17:51 am »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 06:26:54 am by Castro »

UPDATE:

10/20-10/23: Clinton +12 (2-way and 4-way)
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 5%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 53%
Trump - 41%

All numbers are unchanged.



http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209&cid=abcnp_tco
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2016, 06:19:21 am »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 06:22:24 am by Castro »

2-way numbers: Clinton 51%, Trump 43%.

Looks like this is going to be a daily updating 4-day tracking poll. Today's poll was from October 21-24.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 06:21:55 am »

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 06:39:42 am »
« Edited: November 01, 2016, 06:41:38 am by Castro »

Funny enough, the ABC tracker one week out in 2012 had Romney +1.

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 09:15:40 am »

Looks at this panicky liberal right here

Newt Gingrich Verified account
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Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. Ignore polls
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 07:06:11 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 07:10:26 am by Castro »

Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%


I tried to get the 538 state flipper to match the electorate sizes in this poll, and it would probably take a MASSIVE black collapse: http://53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#NCEW:0.621;0.568,CEW:0.531;0.727,Black:0.058;0.485,Latino:0.217;0.419,A/O:0.295;0.549,3:0.05
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 05:37:57 pm »

Update: Clinton +4

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 05:41:44 pm »


They said next update is Sunday, so maybe nobody works on Saturday and they wanted to get it out before they went home.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2016, 03:17:03 pm »

Updated with today's poll: Nov 3-6:

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 1% (-1)

Final update to this tracker. All steady except Jill Stein.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2016-race-stays-47-43-sunday-poll/story?id=43364234
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