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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24025 times)
heatcharger
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Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« on: October 23, 2016, 08:37:48 am »

I've grown extremely skeptical of tracking polls this cycle, but it's true ABC/WaPo was quite accurate with it in 2012. It appears they cut out some of their normal questions to save money, which makes sense.

I wonder how 538 and friends will weight this considering it's an A+ polling outfit.
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heatcharger
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Posts: 4,229
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Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 11:15:44 am »

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything Smiley

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

ABC/WaPo had a tracking poll in 2012
and it was very accurate in the end. And yes, I could believe he's down 12 if he's tanking in traditional red states Texas, Arizona, and Indiana to name a few. Oh, and he's not doing any better than Romney in blue states.
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heatcharger
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Posts: 4,229
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Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 11:23:47 am »

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.
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heatcharger
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Posts: 4,229
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Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 08:30:28 pm »

Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??

It seems to be a 3-day moving average, so they'll probably release the next sets of numbers on the 26th, 29th, 2nd, 5th, and 8th. Just a guess.
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heatcharger
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Posts: 4,229
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Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 06:28:55 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.
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heatcharger
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Posts: 4,229
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Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 06:06:18 am »

Looks like those Trmp-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.
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heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,229
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 11:04:28 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 11:07:23 pm by heatcharger »

Looks like those Trump-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.

I called it folks! New numbers from Nov. 1-4:

Clinton 48%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
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