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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24149 times)
dfwlibertylover
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« on: October 26, 2016, 06:10:04 am »

Wow that's a huge difference between Clinton lead ( + 9) and Generic lead for democrats (+1)
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 06:07:51 am »

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/791596547725201413
Clinton 48 Trump 42 today, Clinton + 6 (Oct 22-25)
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2016, 06:47:29 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2016, 06:53:19 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

The trackers are generally skewing lower, and the main polls, higher.
Yeah a good amount of polls have fit into that range though, CNN, Fox News, Reuters/Ipsos, Yougov, Pew, NBC/Surveymonkey. It seems like the outliers are polls like Gravis, Rasmussen, and USC on the down side and AP, NBC, and USA Today on the upside.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2016, 07:08:25 am »

The main difference between now and 2008 is whether or not the slow downward trend for Clinton's lead continues, in 2008 the last minute polls had him surge and the final result for him was actually -0.3% from the RCP average, this year we likely we have 1 more major poll coming out from Fox, NBC, etc.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2016, 07:25:33 am »

From the ABC article:  Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2016, 06:03:35 am »

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/shift-electorates-makeup-tightens-presidential-contest-poll/story?id=43142198 Clinton 47, Trump 45 (Clinton + 2 ) in the 4 way today.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 06:39:32 am »

This and IBD/TIPP have caused the 4 way Clinton lead to fall to +3.4 now
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 06:44:01 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 06:51:08 am »

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

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They did it 3 days ago or so
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2016, 06:07:31 am »

No change in the 4 way today, still Clinton + 1, 2 way narrowed to a 2 point lead, 49-47 Clinton
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 06:06:29 am »

Something Something *Comey effect*
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 06:26:00 am »

Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.
A tie - Clinton + 3 race? Yeah
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 07:19:20 am »

It seems like Clinton isn't surging so much as some Trump voters are going back to being undecided.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 05:40:49 pm »

They updated 12 hours early? Huhhhh?
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 05:42:49 pm »

I guess lol, they probably will hype again and narrow it Sunday - Tuesday
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2016, 11:38:21 pm »

The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5
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