ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Wow that's a huge difference between Clinton lead ( + 9) and Generic lead for democrats (+1)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/791596547725201413
Clinton 48 Trump 42 today, Clinton + 6 (Oct 22-25)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

The trackers are generally skewing lower, and the main polls, higher.

Yeah a good amount of polls have fit into that range though, CNN, Fox News, Reuters/Ipsos, Yougov, Pew, NBC/Surveymonkey. It seems like the outliers are polls like Gravis, Rasmussen, and USC on the down side and AP, NBC, and USA Today on the upside.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

The main difference between now and 2008 is whether or not the slow downward trend for Clinton's lead continues, in 2008 the last minute polls had him surge and the final result for him was actually -0.3% from the RCP average, this year we likely we have 1 more major poll coming out from Fox, NBC, etc.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

From the ABC article:  Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/shift-electorates-makeup-tightens-presidential-contest-poll/story?id=43142198 Clinton 47, Trump 45 (Clinton + 2 ) in the 4 way today.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

This and IBD/TIPP have caused the 4 way Clinton lead to fall to +3.4 now

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

[Terry the Fat Shark]

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

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They did it 3 days ago or so

[Terry the Fat Shark]

No change in the 4 way today, still Clinton + 1, 2 way narrowed to a 2 point lead, 49-47 Clinton

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Something Something *Comey effect*

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.

A tie - Clinton + 3 race? Yeah

[Terry the Fat Shark]

It seems like Clinton isn't surging so much as some Trump voters are going back to being undecided.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

They updated 12 hours early? Huhhhh?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I guess lol, they probably will hype again and narrow it Sunday - Tuesday

[Terry the Fat Shark]

The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5