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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23792 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: October 23, 2016, 09:41:27 am »

Sorry, Trump, but it is over Sad



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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 09:50:16 am »

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 04:45:01 pm »

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 10:01:56 am »

I'll have a go Smiley Romney was at 46-48 in all the 2012 polls, Trump is at 41-44 in all the 2016 ones. The difference between Clinton+12 and Trump +1 is really just Clinton's number. And Trump seems stuck in an unenviable position.
Very intresting! I didn't notice it untill you said it.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2016, 11:41:36 am »

Tracking polls are find, it's just silly to pay attention to daily fluctuations. I think the way SurveyMonkey does it, releasing a result once a week, is better.
The first time I agree with Lief Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2016, 06:19:28 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2016, 06:41:51 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2016, 06:55:24 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.
It was a responce to very offensive (Cry"Stop boofing drugs."
Would be nice if you condemn it as well? CryCryCry

Otherwise, it is a little bit hypocritical, don't you think so?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2016, 06:59:59 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2016, 07:10:48 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?
Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

Actually, if you look at the polling from 2008, the polls are actually very similarly.
In what way? Marginwise? Yes, since Hillary is about +6-7 right now.

My point was though that you cannot blindly say: Obama under/overperformed polls in state X ( or nationally in 12) and won election, so will Clinton. We might see the same pattern though, and yeah, Clinton higly likely win this election.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2016, 07:12:14 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

I know, but pollsters herding their numbers to save their reputations is a constant recurrence in American politics.
Just two last elections http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-polls-disagree-and-thats-ok/

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2016, 11:31:53 am »

As usual, there is no difference between trackers and non-trackers. None. Literally none. I mean it Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2016, 01:14:29 pm »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I dear say, drug-boofer, I am a resident of an affluent suburb and an alumnus of the prestigious Rutgers University.  I am also in a fraternity whom many a therapist are a member of.  Shall I call to see if I can get you an appointment for your destructive drug boofing?   
We both know, you're not Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2016, 06:17:02 am »

Oh, Trump might have a chance after all.

Looking forward to more polls to confirm.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2016, 07:27:49 am »

It may mean they are struggling to weigh it correctly. All trackers, even more Hillary friendly ones initially seem to like moving down towards a tied race/Trump ahead. Launching it this late was always a risk.

What is so special with trackers, you mean? Are they more difficult to weigh, you mean?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2016, 08:04:35 am »

Interesting also that Trump leads Indys by 16 in the WaPo tracker now and by 7 in the TIPP poll.

Which could mean that even if the early voting numbers are looking favourable for Hillary (more Dems voting early) it won't tell us much about the overall state of the race if the Indys are strongly for Trump ...
Intresting thought, actually. I have no clue, if you're right, but the  fact that unaffiliated voters have increased more than all other groups is intriguing...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2016, 10:24:41 am »

Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2016, 10:30:46 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2016, 10:35:07 am »

Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? Roll Eyes
No, but it shows that it really doesn't know what the number is.
They use presumably about the same model that always. The model that gave them A+ rating on 538. We don't have any evidence that it wouldn't work this election as well, do we?

And is it not hypocritical that Red Hacks always talk about LV, when they don't like results? Why did LV screen look good for, when this polls showed C+12?

As I always say: Average and move on. Average every single poll. Or just use 538/Upshot/HuffPost.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2016, 10:37:02 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2016, 10:40:10 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
I see none, just a sad troll who wants to get noticed by people.

I see no racism from police against Blacks, just a sad trolls protesting to get interviewed by CNN instead of working hard.

It is ok, when we do it!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2016, 11:13:33 am »

It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Nate is apparantly is a sad troll as well Cheesy
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792396374042087424




EDIT: and one more https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792398796583997441
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2016, 11:20:29 am »

And one more: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792399653660655616

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Nate Silver is sayint exactly what I've been saying.

Average and move on. But Atlas experts digs deep into each single poll and, even worse, in small subgroups and do "analysis", lol.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2016, 11:23:49 am »

The same Nate Silver who didn't trust his data in the primaries, and now is over-correcting for the general?
Before the primaries. He gave up directly after Iowa/NH more or less. But it was 16 dudes, and polls are generally pretty unstable there.

But yeah, he was wrong. Though, it has nothing to do with this tweet, has it?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2016, 12:29:25 pm »

This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.
In what way did this poll indicate it?
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