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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24074 times)
BoAtlantis
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« on: October 23, 2016, 08:22:25 am »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 08:37:15 am »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 08:58:00 am by BoAtlantis »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.

But in 2008, TIPP was O+8 and WaPo was O+9, which balances things out.

The thing is more that they are 14% apart right now, when they showed relatively similar results the last 2 elections ...

1) TIPP is a red flag for me because they don't share their methodology in detail.
2) Comparing 2008 and 2012 is vastly different because cell phone use has skyrocketed by 2012.
3) Also, if Trump was up 2 nationally, he'd be doing better in swing state polls.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 11:18:24 am »

The last 3 polls that are graded as "A+" by Nate Silver

ABC/WaPo +12 Clinton
Selzer +9 Clinton
Monmouth +12 Clinton
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2016, 11:46:36 am »

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

Nothing done?

Cuban embargo lifted
Internet accessibility saved
Marriage equality achieved
Insured % at its highest in history
Economy successfully recovered from greatest pit since the Great Depression
Nuclear proliferation curved peacefully
Unemployment at a low

Among many others. You can disagree with some of the things he's done, and he hasn't succeeded at everything he's aimed for, but to say he's done nothing is nothing short of disingenuous to say the least.

Welfare at the highest rate than ever before
Poverty at the highest rate than ever before
America has gotten weaker
Putin is a better leader
Middle Class is declining
No one respects our police and troops
Obama created ISIS
Illegals have increased
Unemployment is at 42% like Trump says
America is more divided than ever
More refugees than ever before
Benghazi

and you still think America is better now?! Shame on you!
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 11:07:47 pm »

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 12:05:38 am »

The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5

Can you show the link?
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