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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24048 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 50,963
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: October 23, 2016, 08:12:08 am »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,963
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 08:27:09 am »

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.

But in 2008, TIPP was O+8 and WaPo was O+9, which balances things out.

The thing is more that they are 14% apart right now, when they showed relatively similar results the last 2 elections ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,963
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2016, 07:16:44 am »

This makes no sense.

As I've said, pollsters seem to have no clue what they are doing ...

How can you go from Hillary+13 to Hillary+2 in just a matter of days ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,963
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2016, 07:46:02 am »

Interesting also that Trump leads Indys by 16 in the WaPo tracker now and by 7 in the TIPP poll.

Which could mean that even if the early voting numbers are looking favourable for Hillary (more Dems voting early) it won't tell us much about the overall state of the race if the Indys are strongly for Trump ...
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