Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 18, 2019, 11:03:40 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 23839 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« on: October 24, 2016, 12:20:33 am »

+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.

Because she's not up 3-5 in MI, and if internals are to believed, Trump is getting slaughtered in most Democratic-leaning swing states. It's absolutely plausible.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 12:26:23 am »

Because she's not up 3-5 in MI, and if internals are to believed, Trump is getting slaughtered in most Democratic-leaning swing states. It's absolutely plausible.

MRG found her at 5% in Michigan, and that doesn't answer the issue of North Carolina and Florida. If she is up  by 12%, she's going to not only be leading in both of those by double digits but she should also be leading in Ohio and Iowa firmly. Every other poll we've got recently firmly says she's not in any of these cases. As for internals, give me a break.

a) NEVER believe any polling of MI... regardless of what it says.

b) this is not going to be a universal swing election, so no, there's no way of saying xx should be xx if this is the result.

You're welcome to think otherwise, but I don't think she's up 12, but close to it.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 12:33:48 am »


a) NEVER believe any polling of MI... regardless of what it says.

b) this is not going to be a universal swing election, so no, there's no way of saying xx should be xx if this is the result.

You're welcome to think otherwise, but I don't think she's up 12, but close to it.

Even if we completely ignore MI, 3-5% in Florida and North Carolina is completely inconsistent with being up 12 nationally. It is, however, compatible with the ARG +7 and Morning Consult +6 we got recently. As for comparing it to other stuff, that simply doesn't fly this election. The polls we're getting from swing states don't show her being up 12, and the most recent Illinois and New York polls show Trump doing about average for a Republican in the former and a bit better in the case of the latter. I haven't looked to see if there has been a recent California poll, but I sincerely doubt there has been enough of a swing to make it a +12 election.

So basically, where you accept or not, there is no basis for a +12 HRC margin right now. None of the polls are showing where these mythical votes are coming from. 

No one really knows how these play out.

I agree that it's not likely a 12 point lead, but there are a weird number of shifts that could take place among groups and states that could lead to this, but we're looking at closer to 8-10%.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 12:40:06 am »


No one really knows how these play out.

I agree that it's not likely a 12 point lead, but there are a weird number of shifts that could take place among groups and states that could lead to this, but we're looking at closer to 8-10%.

There's no mixture of states one can make to get even a +10 result with Trump doing average in New York and Illinois, being ahead in Ohio, and having close races in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. This is also ignoring all the other recent polls which have the race far different from what is being portrayed from this tracker.  

There is. But that's fine.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2016, 06:09:29 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She probably hasn't... but we'll see how the other polls line up.

But I assume this will send some of our more delicate posters into some kind of tail-spin.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2016, 06:20:52 am »

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average Roll Eyes

Sassy doesn't suit you.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2016, 06:33:33 am »

She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.

Pew - 6 points
Suffolk - 9 points
NBC - 9 points
AP -15 points

Sounds quite encouraging.

I mean, it just sounds true as well... doesn't it?
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2016, 06:45:43 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2016, 06:49:49 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

The trackers are generally skewing lower, and the main polls, higher.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2016, 06:58:13 am »

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.
It was a responce to very offensive (Cry"Stop boofing drugs."
Would be nice if you condemn it as well? CryCryCry

Otherwise, it is a little bit hypocritical, don't you think so?

No. One is not nice, but a colloquialism "what are you smoking" etc, the other is racially loaded.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2016, 07:01:52 am »

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

Actually, if you look at the polling from 2008, the polls are actually very similarly.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 06:31:33 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Either way, there are gong to be a lot of pollsters with ostrich egg on their faces. But this one is especially bad.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 06:42:09 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 06:45:20 am »

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

That's brave of them.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2016, 06:18:48 am »


Have they been tracking this too? Because if that's the model they're working with, their results make a lot more sense.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2016, 06:26:00 am »

The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.


Wut.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2016, 06:31:52 am »


Do we need to go through this with you every four years?
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2016, 07:00:52 am »

Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

Smiley


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2016, 06:06:53 am »

Well, there we go.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2016, 01:42:21 am »

Have we not learned the lessons of "battleground" polls
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2016, 07:06:20 am »

Good, Trump at 43...
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC