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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 24186 times)
afleitch
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Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

« on: October 23, 2016, 08:22:49 am »

On the 538 swingy with white college split, Clinton flips NC, GA , AZ and NE2 with a 49.7-38.7 vote share. With the white gender split those states flip as does IN, SC, MO, MT, MS with a 51.2-37.2 vote share.

And this is with generous non white subsamples in the poll.
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afleitch
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Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 07:23:53 am »

It may mean they are struggling to weigh it correctly. All trackers, even more Hillary friendly ones initially seem to like moving down towards a tied race/Trump ahead. Launching it this late was always a risk.
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afleitch
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Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2016, 06:25:01 am »

The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.
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afleitch
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Posts: 25,178


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 07:29:53 am »

Just out of interest, using yesterday's breakdowns and adjusting the racial composition to 2012 Clinton would have led 50-43
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