ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (user search)
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  ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread  (Read 37990 times)
ProudModerate2
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Posts: 20,446
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« on: October 23, 2016, 12:25:45 PM »

Okies, well I'll just update the title as new polls come out then.

Virginia,
I think you should allow the honor of updating this thread, to our Atlas member, Seriously.
Seriously would look forward to seeing, and being a part-of, such great numbers everyday until Nov 8th.
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ProudModerate2
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Posts: 20,446
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 02:44:36 PM »

The most interesting demographic crosstab is this one:
Non-college white women: Trump +9
This is where I thought the collapse in Trump's numbers would occur after the first debate and his general maltreatment of women. He was winning this demo by a lot more before the first debate

I'm not surprised.
When your typical "Non-college white woman" trump supporter resembles/does this ...

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ProudModerate2
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Posts: 20,446
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 10:26:59 PM »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
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So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).
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ProudModerate2
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Posts: 20,446
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 10:37:46 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 10:42:10 PM by ProudModerate2 »

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf

I understand that they released other numbers on other topics.
But a "daily" tracker poll, will ask the "main" question everyday, which in turn means that you have a newly computed number everyday (though it may be the same number as the day before).
So if this is a running 3-day tracker poll, you subtract the data from the oldest day, you add the new data from the new day polling you just completed, recompute and there you have the new number for release.
So this is what is odd to me.
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ProudModerate2
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Posts: 20,446
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2016, 10:38:28 AM »


Agree.
I'm just happy that it is "garbage" on the high-plus advantage for Hillary.
This way it offsets the garbage from IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen, in poll averaging.
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