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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton +3 (FL), Trump +3 (TX)
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +3 (FL), Trump +3 (TX)  (Read 3119 times)
nirvanayoda
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« Reply #25 on: October 23, 2016, 01:06:14 pm »

Both numbers look Great !
Florida has been consistent around the +4 mark.
And Texas in the R single-digits (as we have seen in other TX polls) ..... Wow !

PS: 538 adjusts the Florida number up from Clinton +3 to a +4.
And the Texas number is adjusted down from trump +3 to a +2.

What I find interesting is everyone's willingness to buy into 538's "unskewing".  I get that they are unskewing based on house effect rather than Party ID, but I think we will look back on this election and note that it's not a proper method of evaluating polls.  For example, Nate Silver's article on poll herding showed that perceived outliers that avoid the herding concept (Seltzer in that instance, I believe) often get the correct result.

TLDR:  Perceived "house effects" may show correct turnout models and adjusting such numbers may be compounding error by forcing a "herding" effect.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #26 on: October 23, 2016, 01:16:57 pm »

Did you guys catch this section from the editorial:

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Wtf? There's no evidence to support this statement, lol. Why do people believe anything Trump says? This is completely insane.

But more importantly, what does this mean? If Trump wants to falsely claim on Nov 8th that his landslide defeat was rigged, and the vast majority of republicans support him, what happens?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #27 on: October 23, 2016, 01:28:18 pm »

But more importantly, what does this mean? If Trump wants to falsely claim on Nov 8th that his landslide defeat was rigged, and the vast majority of republicans support him, what happens?

I actually think much of that 72% isn't necessarily "real", and even some of it that's real would evaporate after Nov. 8th, though it depends on how other conservative figures react.

With questions like this, I think it's useful to read Julian Sanchez's take from years ago on "symbolic beliefs":

http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/08/03/symbolic-belief/

For poll questions like this, many folks are saying that they believe "X" if "X" is something that's useful to believe for their "side".  Maybe they've even fooled themselves into thinking that they think it, but they don't really think it deep down.

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So I'm not sure if the proportion who say they believe such things really believe it at all.  And part of the reason why they say they believe it is because the election is still in the balance, there's a lot at stake, and Trump is the GOP standardbearer.  But once the election is over, then he's not the standardbearer anymore, and things will change.  Though much depends on how other Republicans react, perhaps especially conservative media outlets like Fox News and Limbaugh and Hannity, but also the elected Republican leadership.  If all of those figures follow Trump into the "rigged" abyss, then there's trouble.  But if they don't, and instead turn on Trump for having lost a winnable election, much of the "rigged" talk among ordinary voters will evaporate, IMHO.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #28 on: October 23, 2016, 01:40:07 pm »

Interesting stuff, that makes sense. Well, I hope the media and the voters ultimately decide against pressing that claim. It won't end well for anybody.
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Shadows
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« Reply #29 on: October 23, 2016, 01:55:41 pm »

Trump is doing pretty strong among women & very strong among Hispanics compared to expectation. He is also winning Independents.

The only difference is the GOP Vote. If he gets more than 90% of the GOP vote, he will win Texas with 7-9% easily & edge out Florida by 1-2%. Trump has done what is needed among whites, hispanics or women.

Now it is up to the GOP to deliver him 92-93% of the base, if he gets that he is safe. If he is at 75-80% he is toast in the GE.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: October 23, 2016, 02:28:24 pm »

It looks as if polls are stabilizing.

Here's my take on Texas: Donald Trump has offended the sensibilities of the sorts of educated voters, especially in the suburbs of Texas' giant cities,  who might have voted for Obama in 2012 in some other state. They could easily vote for Mitt Romney, but they might not so  easily vote for Trump. This demographic is more conservative in Arizona, Georgia or Texas than in such states as Illinois or Pennsylvania.

I need not go into the personal life or the demagoguery, let alone the cranky foreign policy. Much that could be comfortable about voting for John McCain or Mitt Romney does not apply to Donald Trump.        
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #31 on: October 23, 2016, 03:34:11 pm »

The polling is pretty clear in both of these states.

I think Trump hangs on in Texas but the margin should be embarrassing.
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Lok
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« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2016, 04:09:14 pm »

R+10 districts, no. But R+2 and R+3 ones, yes.
Which is literally only TX-23.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: October 23, 2016, 04:29:51 pm »

The polling is pretty clear in both of these states.

I think Trump hangs on in Texas but the margin should be embarrassing.

I'll agree with this...

I'm still really curious what the final distribution of the vote is in Texas, if it ends up only going Republican by 3-5% in November.

Assuming that much of the swings are happening among Latino, that live in large numbers in most parts of Texas, excepting EastTex and parts of the plain areas of NorthTex that county swing map should be relatively even in most parts of the state, excepting perhaps SouthTex along the Rio Grande counties and El Paso that are already overwhelmingly Democratic.

I would expect to see major swings in Harris County and other places with a large population of Middle and Upper-Middle Class Republican leaning Latino voters (Bexar County?)

The other unknown is college educated Anglo voters that is the next most likely cause for the dramatic shift in Texas between 2012 results and the 2016 recent Texas polling. This vote will likely be  heavily concentrated in suburban counties/areas around Houston, DFW, SA/Austin, and maybe some miscellaneous college towns scattered around the state.

Question #2 Likelihood of Voting
96% of Latinos, 95% of Blacks, and only 93% of Anglos say that have already voted or definitely will vote.

Q #4: Intended voting method
Again Latinos lead the pack in terms of early voting with 69% of Latinos, 66% of Blacks, and only 62% of Anglos saying they will vote early.

Q #6: Motivation to Vote
Latinos again lead with 85% very/somewhat motivated to vote versus only 82% of Anglos.

We could go further through the list by ethnicity, but it does seem clear that there is strong motivation and enthusiasm to vote among Texas Latinos, and it does not bode well for Mr Trump in Tejas, or as he is more frequently referred to in Spanish El Payaso, and that's the nicer term.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #34 on: October 23, 2016, 08:33:30 pm »

This is honestly the worst. I doubt Clinton will gain much in Texas; it is more likely Johnson is picking up the #NeverTrumpers
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: October 23, 2016, 08:50:22 pm »

This is honestly the worst. I doubt Clinton will gain much in Texas; it is more likely Johnson is picking up the #NeverTrumpers

Doubtful, more likely it has to do with the 1.5 million surge in voter registration since 2012 (2008-2012 saw essentially a net of 0). I'm guessing many of those are Latinos who weren't too happy to be called drug dealers and rapists.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #36 on: October 24, 2016, 12:46:05 am »

No way those States are only 6 points from each other.

#UnskewThePoll

FL: CBS/YouGov(10/21-10/22)
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.9% | Hillary 42.4% | Johnson 3.7% | Stein 1.8%

https://www.scribd.com/document/328596671/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Florida-Oct-23-2016#from_embed

1. Adjust the Poll as realistic Demographics

(White evans 24% | Others 76%)

1) TRUMP: White-Evans(24%)x75% + Others(76%)x38% = 46.88%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(24%)x12% + Others(76%)x52% = 42.4%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(24%)x6% + Others(76%)x3% = 3.72%
4) Stein: White-Evans(24%)x1% + Others(76%)x2% = 1.78%


2. This poll undersampled White Evangelicals too much.

1) 2012 Exit Poll: 24%

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

2) CBS/YouGov(10/20-10/21): 156 LV / 1042 LV = 14.97%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #37 on: October 24, 2016, 05:06:29 am »

This is honestly the worst. I doubt Clinton will gain much in Texas; it is more likely Johnson is picking up the #NeverTrumpers

Watch the conservative Christians with white-collar jobs. They take their Christian values seriously, and Donald Trump is inconsistent with those values. Will such conservative Christians vote as they usually do for someone right wing on economics yet has a personal life closer to the Playboy Philosophy than to the sort of behavior that the late Jerry Falwell expected of Bible-believing Christians?

The crotch-grab is a sexual assault. Do that to one of my female employees while in my employ, and you will be fired.

 

 
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Donnie
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« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2016, 05:59:34 am »

Clinton +3% in FL may be accurate, but there is ZERO CHANCE she is within 3% in TX.
North and central TX will vote the same as in 2012.
The state Romney carried by 1.26 mil. votes and 15.8%.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2016, 05:14:26 pm »

Clinton +3% in FL may be accurate, but there is ZERO CHANCE she is within 3% in TX.
North and central TX will vote the same as in 2012.
The state Romney carried by 1.26 mil. votes and 15.8%.

She probably won't end up that close, but it's very unlikely that Trump is going to do Romney numbers there. There have been several Texas polls in the last 2 weeks that show a Trump lead under 5 points. Probably he improves on that, but swings it 10 points? I wouldn't bet on it.

edit: changed here to there...thought I was a Texan for a moment, lol
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Maxwell
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« Reply #40 on: October 24, 2016, 05:16:12 pm »

Clinton +3% in FL may be accurate, but there is ZERO CHANCE she is within 3% in TX.
North and central TX will vote the same as in 2012.
The state Romney carried by 1.26 mil. votes and 15.8%.

Before this year, Texas had historically low voter turnout. This year, Democrats have been markedly improving voter registration of hispanic voters, and Houston is showing stronger early vote turnout so far. I don't think Trump will lose Texas but I wouldn't count out a very close showing.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #41 on: October 24, 2016, 05:17:08 pm »

Clinton +3% in FL may be accurate, but there is ZERO CHANCE she is within 3% in TX.
North and central TX will vote the same as in 2012.
The state Romney carried by 1.26 mil. votes and 15.8%.

It's unlikely she'll win Texas (barring another huge Trump scandal), but this isn't 2012.  The margin is going to be a lot closer to 3% than 15.8%.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #42 on: October 24, 2016, 05:24:24 pm »

Clinton +3% in FL may be accurate, but there is ZERO CHANCE she is within 3% in TX.
North and central TX will vote the same as in 2012.
The state Romney carried by 1.26 mil. votes and 15.8%.

Obama lost Texas by only 950k votes in 2008 and only won Harris County by 20k votes.

Even if Harris only goes +10 C in 2016 and turnout is only 1.2 Mill voters, Clinton would net +200k votes alone from this one county.

Needless to say if turnout is higher in Harris and it ends up more like a +15 % C, you already have over 30% of Romney's margins wiped out in one single county, without even going in the suburban counties of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin.

I don't know how you define NorthTex and Central TX, but I am 100% positive that Clinton will significantly out-perform Obama '08 margins in the Metro SA and Austin areas "Central Texas".
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