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  FL-CBS/YouGov: Rubio +2
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Author Topic: FL-CBS/YouGov: Rubio +2  (Read 1583 times)
heatcharger
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« on: October 23, 2016, 09:35:13 am »

Link.

Rubio 44%
Murphy 42%

What is the DSCC doing???
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 09:46:20 am »

The DSCC is running out of time if they seriously want to contest this race and launch an ad blitz. I think Rubio wil win by 5-7 points in the end.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 09:50:37 am »

I get the feeling that if the DSCC does not ultimately put resources back into this race, there is going to be a lot of angry people pointing fingers when this is over.
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syntaxerror
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2016, 09:52:46 am »

Series of reliable polls have this at Rubio+2/3. Some others have it at more than 8. Which do we believe? DSCC pulling out indicates the latter reflects internal polling, but Obama cutting new ads for Murphy and essentially stumping for him may tell a different story.

Democratic operative Steve Schale seems to think the DSCC are making a massive mistake too.
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Arch
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2016, 09:53:57 am »

Murphy is surging.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2016, 10:09:14 am »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 10:12:54 am by DavidB. »

YouGov does have a +1.6 D house effect, but this is not good at all. I told you guys Murphy was going to end up winning, but "hurr durr Rubio is as safe as Portman." Now you see it. I will hate Donald Trump more for taking down Rubio than for anything else he did.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2016, 10:10:08 am »

lol Trump's going to make Rubio lose again
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politicallefty
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2016, 10:11:38 am »

Damn, Hillary's SuperPAC needs to get into Florida ASAP. Gaining a seat in the Senate and eliminating one of her top competitors for 2020 should be a top priority.
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2016, 10:29:17 am »

Damn, Hillary's SuperPAC needs to get into Florida ASAP. Gaining a seat in the Senate and eliminating one of her top competitors for 2020 should be a top priority.

Yep. To me investing in helping to get rid of Rubio is more important that trying to push for Utah or Texas.
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User157088589849
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2016, 10:30:01 am »

Isn't Florida just really expensive to run ads in?
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syntaxerror
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2016, 10:36:13 am »

Isn't Florida just really expensive to run ads in?

Yeah, its an expensive market. That may explain DSCC allocating funds to cheaper markets in tighter races. Also I guess Obama stumping for Murphy and other platforms do as good a job as television ads. Still, I'd much rather Priorities USA go and help Murphy rather than go after more EC votes in Georgia. Clinton campaign also better of helping Murphy that fools errands in Texas and Utah.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2016, 10:57:03 am »

YouGov does have a +1.6 D house effect, but this is not good at all. I told you guys Murphy was going to end up winning, but "hurr durr Rubio is as safe as Portman." Now you see it. I will hate Donald Trump more for taking down Rubio than for anything else he did.

Yeah, this poll totally proves that Murphy will end up winning. This reminds me of all the talk about the super-close FL Senate race in 2012, and in the end Nelson won in a landslide.

So you are saying there is a shy Democratic effect in Florida and both Clinton and Murphy will over-perform their polling average? Good to know!
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Antonio V
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2016, 12:22:26 pm »

Candidates who lead in polls by margins of 2 to 7 (with occasional outliers showing a tie or a 14-point lead) almost always win.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2016, 12:31:44 pm »

If this is the eventual result, f@$! the DSCC.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2016, 12:39:37 pm »

The DSCC bought the media hype that Beautiful Wonderful Amazing Sexy Flawless Titan Marco <3333333333333333333333333333333333333333 was unbeatable, and now it might be too late to fix their mistake. As if it was any surprise the media would shill for him after saying he won literally every debate (besides the obvious one) in the primary. Roll Eyes

It's pretty absurd they think MO is more winnable. It's much easier to create a Clinton/Murphy voter than a Trump/Kander voter.

Also, I find it funny that Hillary now leads by more than Rubio in the FL polling average, but apparently she could still lose the state yet Rubio is "safe." Roll Eyes
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DavidB.
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2016, 01:01:00 pm »

The DSCC bought the media hype that Beautiful Wonderful Amazing Sexy Flawless Titan Marco <3333333333333333333333333333333333333333 was unbeatable, and now it might be too late to fix their mistake. As if it was any surprise the media would shill for him after saying he won literally every debate (besides the obvious one) in the primary. Roll Eyes
Wow, so disrespectful! As if Robot Rubio wasn't flawless. Hope he kidnaps you, takes you to Wainwright Park, and teaches you not to talk like that anymore Smiley
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Shadows
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2016, 02:01:28 pm »

The DSCC is doing the right thing IMO. They have put enough for Murphy, he was selected in a way by leadership for his deep pockets, moderate face, Ex - Republican career so that he can be competitive. Let him fight his battle.

DSCC should put more money in NC. NH & PA. PA & NH are absolute toss-ups & NC is also almost a toss-up with a small GOP edge. All Dem challengers are under tremendous attacks by strong candidates & a barrage of attacks.

Retain NV, Win IL/WI/IN. That is 49. And then win NH, PA & NC. FL & MO should be last preference now! Only when there is a decent lead in NH & PA, go into FL. There is no use spreading resources too thin!
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Green Line
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2016, 02:14:55 pm »

People on here talk about the DSCC like they're some magic bullet, and all they have to do is drop some adds and all of a sudden Murphy is saved!
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2016, 02:37:44 pm »

The DSCC bought the media hype that Beautiful Wonderful Amazing Sexy Flawless Titan Marco <3333333333333333333333333333333333333333 was unbeatable, and now it might be too late to fix their mistake. As if it was any surprise the media would shill for him after saying he won literally every debate (besides the obvious one) in the primary. Roll Eyes

It's pretty absurd they think MO is more winnable. It's much easier to create a Clinton/Murphy voter than a Trump/Kander voter.

Also, I find it funny that Hillary now leads by more than Rubio in the FL polling average, but apparently she could still lose the state yet Rubio is "safe." Roll Eyes

Don't you know that since Rubio is flawless, even the Senate's most extreme liberals love him? The DSCC had to make an apparent effort for party loyalty reasons, but was never going to actually spend enough to have any chance of defeating Rubio, because everyone in the senate loves him and wants him to stay, even if FL doesn't like him that much.
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2016, 05:08:26 pm »

The really amusing thing from the leaks we've gotten is that we can conclude Democratic internals have Rubio up in the high single-digits and unassailable, while Republican internals have him barely beating Murphy.

Either way, yeah, the only version of reality where Murphy wins is where there is a massive, systematic polling failure across the board. Which is never something you want to bet on.

lol Trump's going to make Rubio lose again

I mean, if You-Gov is right and Trump is losing Florida by 3 while winning Texas by 3, it's pretty clear that, at least for trend-map purposes, the olds have overpowered the Hispanics this year and Florida will trend Republican
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2016, 05:14:50 pm »

Guys, sober up. If you were in charge of DSCC and had to choose between spending 50 million in Florida to get 1 senate seat, or the same amount of money in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and get 3 seats, what would you do?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2016, 05:35:28 pm »

Guys, sober up. If you were in charge of DSCC and had to choose between spending 50 million in Florida to get 1 senate seat, or the same amount of money in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and get 3 seats, what would you do?

The three. Not only due to logic, but because no one should want to take out FLAWLESS BEAUTIFUL MARCO Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart. In fact he should have been allowed to run unopposed!!!
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2016, 06:00:20 pm »

LOL at those who thought Rubio was "safe".
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2016, 07:06:02 pm »

If Ross, Kander, Hassan, and McGinty all win by like 1%, I think we can say that abandoning Murphy was the right decision.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2016, 09:00:26 am »

got to admit, the sheer amount of memes surrounding Rubio means I won't mind that much if he wins.
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