FL-CBS/YouGov:D: Clinton 63% Sanders 33%;R: Trump 35% Rubio 25% Cruz 18% Bush 9% (user search)
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  FL-CBS/YouGov:D: Clinton 63% Sanders 33%;R: Trump 35% Rubio 25% Cruz 18% Bush 9% (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-CBS/YouGov:D: Clinton 63% Sanders 33%;R: Trump 35% Rubio 25% Cruz 18% Bush 9%  (Read 4078 times)
Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« on: October 23, 2016, 12:35:05 PM »

CBS/YouGov poll of Florida, conducted Oct. 20-21:

link

If you could go back in time and vote in the presidential primary this past spring, how would you vote?
(They ask all voters, but I only list the Dem. numbers for Dem. candidates and GOP numbers for GOP candidates.)

Dems

Clinton 63%
Sanders 33%
someone else 4%

GOP

Trump 35%
Rubio 25%
Cruz 18%
Bush 9%
Kasich 7%
someone else 6%
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 12:58:26 PM »


Yeah, I really don't think she's going to get much more than ~55% of the Democratic primary vote nationally.  That's about where she's at so far, and we only have 0% of the primary vote left to count, so she can't actually move up very much if she has to rely on the 0 remaining primary states.
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 02:29:17 PM »

So its almost exactly like the results. The people of Florida see how this election has turned out and they're like "yeah, we don't regret it".

Trump beat Rubio by 19 points, but this poll has him winning by 10.  Usually, people are more likely to retroactively say they back the winner than the other way around, so this result isn't great from a Trumpian perspective, though he already has the nomination, so it's irrelevant anyway.

Of course, the complicating factor is that Florida is Rubio's home state, and he's currently running a statewide campaign there.  Would be interesting to see this poll question in other states, but it's not really worth the pollsters' time to bother with questions like this.

But the idea that some folks seem to have that the GOP is overwhelmingly a Trump-ist party now, and they're inevitably going to nominate either Trump himself or a Trump-like figure in 2020 seems to be misguided.  Maybe that'll happen, but it's too soon to say.
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