Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 21, 2020, 05:24:35 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30  (Read 1813 times)
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,301
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 23, 2016, 03:44:34 pm »
« edited: October 23, 2016, 03:46:20 pm by heatcharger »

Link.

Trump 60%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 4%
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 03:47:10 pm »

#TrumpUnder66
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,829
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 03:49:34 pm »

Nearly two thirds of Oklahomans have been watching Trump's campaign over the past three weeks and have said "yup, that's my guy."
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,812
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2016, 03:53:33 pm »

THANKS OKLAHOMA!!! #MAGA
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,911
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2016, 03:55:56 pm »

Nearly two thirds of Oklahomans have been watching Trump's campaign over the past three weeks and have said "yup, that's my guy."

What a terrifying thought.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,177
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2016, 03:56:14 pm »

This is why Texas makes fun of Oklahoma.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,519
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2016, 04:01:16 pm »

a reminder: SoonerPoll is not that good. They have wild variations - Trump was only up 15 or so in their last poll.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,812
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2016, 04:01:54 pm »

Fascinating- Clinton lagging Obama 2012 #'s in Oklahoma and Trump at 60.  Texas really is sui generis this year.

Oklahoma and West Virginia are the quintessential "deplorable" states.
Logged
psychprofessor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,073


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2016, 04:02:02 pm »

I think this poll came in last place at 538 lol
Logged
ReapSow
Rafe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 616
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2016, 04:05:49 pm »

Yup. Doesn't surprise me.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2016, 04:09:17 pm »

I think this poll came in last place at 538 lol

No, 538 has them rated B.  But that's based on only 16 polls.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,557
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2016, 04:10:53 pm »

Clinton is not going to do worse than Obama in Oklahoma.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,452


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2016, 04:13:08 pm »

This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,911
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2016, 04:14:07 pm »

This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma.


lol, what the heck
Logged
Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,438


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2016, 04:14:57 pm »

I bet North Texas is pretty much treating Trump like any other Republican, but that his struggles are really from the Border region, and the SA, Austin, and Houston metro areas.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,666
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2016, 04:17:41 pm »

Not surprising. A pile of manure with an (R) next to its name would probably get 60% in Oklahoma.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2016, 04:19:13 pm »

This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma.

Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that.  This is a flaw in the model.
Logged
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,800


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2016, 04:23:53 pm »

This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma.

Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that.  This is a flaw in the model.

Well in Oklahoma, Trump was already at over 99% so it's not like this poll could move it that far. The idea is that if Trump is further ahead than expected in Oklahoma, he's also more likely to win Ohio and North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

I agree that it's probably a flaw in the model though, due to the overall lack of polling in Oklahoma. This practically cancelled out the Washington Post national poll that came out today, which is silly.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2016, 04:25:10 pm »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 04:27:38 pm by Happy Sad Trumpista »

This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma.

Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that.  This is a flaw in the model.
How much did it move odds in Oklahoma?

But yeah, this polls got too much weight in Oklahoma.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2016, 04:30:03 pm »

This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma.

Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that.  This is a flaw in the model.

Well in Oklahoma, Trump was already at over 99% so it's not like this poll could move it that far. The idea is that if Trump is further ahead than expected in Oklahoma, he's also more likely to win Ohio and North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

I agree that it's probably a flaw in the model though, due to the overall lack of polling in Oklahoma. This practically cancelled out the Washington Post national poll that came out today, which is silly.

Oklahoma has practically zero to do with those other states culturally or socially
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,632
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2016, 04:34:50 pm »

I bet North Texas is pretty much treating Trump like any other Republican, but that his struggles are really from the Border region, and the SA, Austin, and Houston metro areas.

You might be right on that, assuming by NorthTex you are talking about the rural areas around the Red River.

I would also add WestTex to an area that could see some wild swings in 2016. As I have mentioned previously, this is one of the few parts of the country that swung towards Obama in 2012, and there is an extremely large Latino population in what has traditionally been one of the most Republican parts of Texas.

Logged
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,800


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2016, 04:47:29 pm »

This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma.

Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that.  This is a flaw in the model.

Well in Oklahoma, Trump was already at over 99% so it's not like this poll could move it that far. The idea is that if Trump is further ahead than expected in Oklahoma, he's also more likely to win Ohio and North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

I agree that it's probably a flaw in the model though, due to the overall lack of polling in Oklahoma. This practically cancelled out the Washington Post national poll that came out today, which is silly.

Oklahoma has practically zero to do with those other states culturally or socially

True, but there's no reason to think he would be surging in Oklahoma and nowhere else. The problem, of course, is that with so few polls out of the state, it's less likely to be a surge than statistical noise. If there were like 3 polls a week out of Oklahoma showing Trump up 18 and the he suddenly surged to 30, that might be more significant.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,519
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2016, 04:48:38 pm »

Personal experience - I see fewer Trump signs than I do Johnson signs, much less Clinton signs, in Tulsa, one of the most conservative cities in the country. There isn't much enthusiasm for Trump here.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,632
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2016, 04:57:31 pm »

Personal experience - I see fewer Trump signs than I do Johnson signs, much less Clinton signs, in Tulsa, one of the most conservative cities in the country. There isn't much enthusiasm for Trump here.

"Living on Tulsa Time" Smiley

Tulsa is now only 58% Anglo with a large and rapidly growing Latino population....

I also have a pet theory about the "Oil Patch" that may or may not be shown on election night in key energy sector counties in the country, where Trump's plan to "Seize Iraqi Oil" if implemented would cause a huge collapse in the domestic oil sector that is already getting killed by the low price of crude, that has led to major layoffs over the past year or so.

Also, Tulsa Metro does have a relatively large and educated workforce, even beyond the Energy Sector, and although many of these workers are "Conservative" they don't necessarily like what they are hearing from the current party nominee.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,632
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2016, 05:35:50 pm »

Personal experience - I see fewer Trump signs than I do Johnson signs, much less Clinton signs, in Tulsa, one of the most conservative cities in the country. There isn't much enthusiasm for Trump here.

"Living on Tulsa Time" Smiley

Tulsa is now only 58% Anglo with a large and rapidly growing Latino population....

I also have a pet theory about the "Oil Patch" that may or may not be shown on election night in key energy sector counties in the country, where Trump's plan to "Seize Iraqi Oil" if implemented would cause a huge collapse in the domestic oil sector that is already getting killed by the low price of crude, that has led to major layoffs over the past year or so.

Also, Tulsa Metro does have a relatively large and educated workforce, even beyond the Energy Sector, and although many of these workers are "Conservative" they don't necessarily like what they are hearing from the current party nominee.

I think oil and gas is very split this year.  Those in management and technical desk jobs in Houston (to a lesser degree in OKC, Tulsa and Alaska) are swinging hard away from Trump, while the roughnecks and field engineers who live and vote in the oilfields actually like him even more than a generic R.  I think ExtremeRepublican is right that Trump will be mostly fine in DFW and great in the Panhandle and rural Texas generally, but the bottom will fall out for him in Houston and OKC itself.

These are all really good points, although I want to add a further point, where I might differ slightly.

Many of the roughnecks out in the offshore rigs of the Gulf Coast are Black and Latinos, not to mention the sprawling oil refinery in Baytown outside of Houston, as well as the "Cancer corridor" of oil refineries that runs down from Baton Rouge down the Mississippi to a little North of New Orleans.

I agree that many Anglo roughnecks might swing a bit towards Trump, and he will likely do quite well among property owners in places like Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Wyoming that frequently have both cattle and some oil pumps on their land and benefit from dual tax breaks in many of these states as a result.

One item not yet discussed are all of the contractors/subcontractors and vendors that are downstream suppliers to the Petro Industry. For example, the massive layoffs in the energy sector shortly before I left Houston a year ago, were not just confined to management/administrative jobs in places like the new Exxon-Mobile Corp HQ in the Woodlands, but also many companies that provided services and goods from designing and manufacturing oil field hardware, trucking companies supporting the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, not to mention a ton of small business owners directly impacted by the collapse of the domestic American Petroleum sector.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eagle_Ford_Group

Although, I am not that familiar with the history of the Energy Sector in OK, Tulsa is a city with is rated one of the top 10 livable cities in the US, with a rapidly growing and diversifying economy, and personally I remotely supported a major Tech sector corp account when I was back in Houston.

As others have noted, it is unlikely that Trump will outperform McCain and Romney margins in the state at large, but I would not be surprised to see OKC and Tulsa lurch Democratic, while rural counties maintain or slightly underperform Romney 2012 numbers.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC