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  MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12
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Author Topic: MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12  (Read 2792 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 24, 2016, 12:20:10 am »

47% Trump
35% Clinton

http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-results-minnesota-8th-congressional-district-race-rick-nolan-stewart-mills/4299294

Obama won this district by 6% in 2012.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 12:21:31 am »

No wonder Minnesota is a toss up on 538..Damn...This state hasn't want republican in 3 decades.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 12:22:28 am »

No wonder Minnesota is a toss up on 538..Damn...This state hasn't want republican in 3 decades.

Ah ha, you've seen the other CD polls? I'm not the least bit concerned about MN.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 12:23:50 am »

Junk. No way Nolan loses now after romping in 2014. SUSA is generally a good pollster but Minnesota is one state they cannot poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2016, 12:23:55 am »

I don't think that MN will ever vote for Trump, but there has been some crazy polling out of that state recently.

It seems the cities and suburbs are voting strongly for Hillary, while the rural areas are strongly trending to Trump.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2016, 12:26:41 am »

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2016, 12:43:31 am »

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.

so what?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=625b934d-8781-4fe7-a4ff-e9e7141b5a4f

even adjust the Poll as your demand (DEM 34 IND 34 REP 29 )

1. TRUMP: DEM(34%)x6% + REP(29%)x83% + Ind(34%)x49% = 42.77%
2. Hillary: DEM(34%)x86% + REP(29%)x5% + Ind(34%)x25% = 39.19%

TRUMP is still winning +3.58% in MN-8 Tongue

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2016, 12:45:08 am »

lol no
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2016, 01:10:59 am »

this is what a junk poll looks like folks.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2016, 01:12:51 am »

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.

so what?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=625b934d-8781-4fe7-a4ff-e9e7141b5a4f

even adjust the Poll as your demand (DEM 34 IND 34 REP 29 )

1. TRUMP: DEM(34%)x6% + REP(29%)x83% + Ind(34%)x49% = 42.77%
2. Hillary: DEM(34%)x86% + REP(29%)x5% + Ind(34%)x25% = 39.19%

TRUMP is still winning +3.58% in MN-8 Tongue


You need to keep adjusting.  2016 cannot be compared to 2014.  But it can be compared more accurately to 2012.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2016, 01:13:34 am »

This is the exact type of district you'd expect to swing toward Trump so I'm not sure why it's so hard to believe that he's up/competitive there.
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darthpi
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2016, 01:15:43 am »

Definitely seems like the kind of district that should trend Republican based on its demographics, but hard to believe it would swing that hard.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2016, 01:34:44 am »

This is the exact type of district you'd expect to swing toward Trump so I'm not sure why it's so hard to believe that he's up/competitive there.

Minnesota's 8th congressional district
Distribution  63% Rural, 37% Urban
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota%27s_8th_congressional_district
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Ebowed
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2016, 03:14:16 am »

Clinton will win here.
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Horus
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2016, 03:28:09 am »

I can see Trump winning this district. Clinton will make up for it by doing better in the twin cities suburbs.
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136or142
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2016, 03:30:49 am »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 03:35:58 am by Adam T »

I'm not quite sure why, but Congressional polling is generally quite poor.  

This is from an article on the U.S House race part of the poll:

Two years ago at about this same stage, our poll showed Mills with an eight-point margin. Three weeks later in lost to Nolan by 1.4%. Schier says that was likely the result of the Democratic Party having a far superior get-out-the-vote operation. "I think the lead in the polls evaporated two years ago because the Democrats had a ground game that far outstripped the Republican ground game in that district," Schier says.

When the polls turn out to be wrong, a superior get-out-the-vote operation is a standard excuse of the pollster.

I think that a 9.4% difference between a late poll and the actual result being explained by a superior get-out-the-vote effort is ridiculous.

http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/

I'm not claiming this poll is wrong just providing evidence of how poor polling by Congressional District whether for the House race or the Presidential race frequently is.
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Spark
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2016, 07:20:17 am »

Trump will win MN at this rate.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2016, 07:22:13 am »


Not with MN-2 and MN-3 swinging as hard or harder in the opposite direction, I don't think.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2016, 07:28:02 am »

SurveyUSA isnt  good at polling smaller races, one just has to look at Kentucky.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2016, 07:34:40 am »


I know you're grasping right now, or you're a troll... either way, no.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2016, 07:38:57 am »

Great new poll out of Minnesota! Media can't hide the fact we started a movement in Minnesota 8! #MAGA
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Cigarettes & Saints
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2016, 08:32:24 am »


LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.
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Arch
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2016, 08:34:28 am »

If Trump is not winning OH, Trump is not winning MI. If Trump is not winning MI, Trump is not winning WI. If Trump is not winning WI, Trump is not winning MN.

He's not even at the first step of this.
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mencken
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2016, 08:42:51 am »


LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

Outperforming Romney by 17 in MN-8 while underperforming Romney by 12 in MN-3 and underperofrming Romney by 8 in MN-2 suggests Trump will overall roughly match (-1) Romney's performance (assuming that suburban and rural districts are roughly equitable). Losing Minnesota by 9 certainly does not help Trump's cause, but it also suggests that most of these national leads showing Clinton up double digits are bogus.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2016, 08:51:47 am »

This same poll has Nolan losing by 8 in 2014.
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