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  MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12
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Author Topic: MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12  (Read 2789 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: October 24, 2016, 08:57:21 am »

If nothing else, this does tell us that eastern Iowa is probably gone for Clinton.  I wonder if Ron Kind is in trouble next door with these kinds of Trump numbers in historically Dem parts of rural MN?

Polling suggests that Clinton has narrow lead outside of the Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay media markets.
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« Reply #26 on: October 24, 2016, 09:00:34 am »


LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

Outperforming Romney by 17 in MN-8 while underperforming Romney by 12 in MN-3 and underperofrming Romney by 8 in MN-2 suggests Trump will overall roughly match (-1) Romney's performance (assuming that suburban and rural districts are roughly equitable). Losing Minnesota by 9 certainly does not help Trump's cause, but it also suggests that most of these national leads showing Clinton up double digits are bogus.

MN is an inelastic D state. This has already been discussed at length in the forum before. MN does not move at a 1:1 ratio with the rest of the nation in either direction, so your extrapolation is not very useful.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #27 on: October 24, 2016, 09:57:17 am »


Be that as it may, this election is testing old rules.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #28 on: October 24, 2016, 11:29:55 am »

District polling is dodgy and SUSA in Minnesota is even worse. Come on people, don't be idiots now.
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« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2016, 11:43:48 am »

lolno
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TC 25
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« Reply #30 on: October 24, 2016, 12:25:32 pm »

As a Minnesota resident, I think I can safely say this is still a solid Clinton state.

Trump will win and by good margins in CD 6, 7 and 8 but Clinton probably wins the remaining five districts with Minneapolis and St. Paul providing more than enough votes.

I'd say MN winds up Clinton 50, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 1.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #31 on: October 24, 2016, 01:07:14 pm »

Junk, Minnesota is not turning red this time. Trump is a bad fit for this state.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #32 on: October 24, 2016, 01:09:36 pm »

I don't believe this poll.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #33 on: October 24, 2016, 01:16:31 pm »

I do think Trump will outperform recent Republicans in MN-08, and could definitely win the district but +12?  I'll have to see it on Election Day to believe it.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #34 on: October 24, 2016, 01:38:10 pm »

Junk. No way Nolan loses now after romping in 2014. SUSA is generally a good pollster but Minnesota is one state they cannot poll.

this. Obviously tender is getting his jollies, though.
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« Reply #35 on: October 24, 2016, 01:51:19 pm »

Junk. No way Nolan loses now after romping in 2014. SUSA is generally a good pollster but Minnesota is one state they cannot poll.

this. Obviously tender is getting his jollies, though.
Yeah.  It's infuriating.  Tender has done more to ruin my opinion of Austria than any other single person.  He exemplifies the casually racist/misogynistic/homophobic attitude that most Austrians seem to have while claiming moral and ethical superiority over everybody else.

It's no wonder the Germans look down on them the same we we look down on the deep south.

As for the poll:  Mills was up 8 at this point in 2014 according to SUSA and he lost the election.  Now he's up by 4.

The district will swing and trend towards Trump but will elect the same DFLers as they always do otherwise.  Mostly because Trump has protectionist trade policy proposals at a time when the commodity crash and unfair practices by China (which both candidates have condemned) is leaving their taconite plants shuttered.  If the GOP nominates Cruz or Ryan or some other smarmy snobjob in 2020, look for that trend to dry up.

Even so, the Iron Range and Duluth won't be voting for Trump or Mills.  Everyone wants to think the Iron Range is driving this swing.  It is not.

The Republican trend is occurring in the new areas of District 8 that are adjacent to Tom Emmer's 6th district and much closer to where Stuey Mills (with his fancy hair and fancy clothes and fancy house and fancy boat and fancy job and fancy ideas about free markets) lives.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #36 on: October 24, 2016, 01:56:11 pm »

Junk. No way Nolan loses now after romping in 2014. SUSA is generally a good pollster but Minnesota is one state they cannot poll.

this. Obviously tender is getting his jollies, though.
Yeah.  It's infuriating.  Tender has done more to ruin my opinion of Austria than any other single person.  He exemplifies the casually racist/misogynistic/homophobic attitude that most Austrians seem to have while claiming moral and ethical superiority over everybody else.

It's no wonder the Germans look down on them the same we we look down on the deep south.

As for the poll:  Mills was up 8 at this point in 2014 according to SUSA and he lost the election.  Now he's up by 4.

The district will swing and trend towards Trump but will elect the same DFLers as they always do otherwise.  Mostly because Trump has protectionist trade policy proposals at a time when the commodity crash and unfair practices by China (which both candidates have condemned) is leaving their taconite plants shuttered.  If the GOP nominates Cruz or Ryan or some other smarmy snobjob in 2020, look for that trend to dry up.

Even so, the Iron Range and Duluth won't be voting for Trump or Mills.  Everyone wants to think the Iron Range is driving this swing.  It is not.

The Republican trend is occurring in the new areas of District 8 that are adjacent to Tom Emmer's 6th district and much closer to where Stuey Mills (with his fancy hair and fancy clothes and fancy house and fancy boat and fancy job and fancy ideas about free markets) lives.

My hope is that when redistricting happens and MN loses a seat, they rip up the 7th. Give the 8th the North of the state, 1st the South, 6th the middle, and the rest in the metro area.
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mencken
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« Reply #37 on: October 24, 2016, 03:45:47 pm »


LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

Outperforming Romney by 17 in MN-8 while underperforming Romney by 12 in MN-3 and underperofrming Romney by 8 in MN-2 suggests Trump will overall roughly match (-1) Romney's performance (assuming that suburban and rural districts are roughly equitable). Losing Minnesota by 9 certainly does not help Trump's cause, but it also suggests that most of these national leads showing Clinton up double digits are bogus.

MN is an inelastic D state. This has already been discussed at length in the forum before. MN does not move at a 1:1 ratio with the rest of the nation in either direction, so your extrapolation is not very useful.

The recent SUSA polling seems to suggest significant movement in Minnesota, even taking into account the inherent noisiness of congressional level polling. It is just that the R trend of the rural areas is counteracted by the D trend of the cities.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2016, 04:07:30 pm »

A trip down memory lane...

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"Most interesting states", LMAO!
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2016, 05:08:38 pm »

I'll also note the math above excludes also likely D trends in MN 4, 5 and 6.
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mencken
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« Reply #40 on: October 24, 2016, 05:31:45 pm »

I'll also note the math above excludes also likely D trends in MN 4, 5 and 6.

It assumes that they will be counteracted by the likely R trends in MN 1 and 7.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #41 on: October 24, 2016, 06:03:43 pm »

I'll also note the math above excludes also likely D trends in MN 4, 5 and 6.

It assumes that they will be counteracted by the likely R trends in MN 1 and 7.
So D trends in 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 will be countered by R trends in 1, 7, and 8.  You'd better hope for unprecedented R trends in declining outstate MN then!

Judging by the ground game (the GOP has no money and is barely scraping by while the DFL is loaded and well staffed)...that wont be easy.
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mencken
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« Reply #42 on: October 24, 2016, 06:15:44 pm »

I'll also note the math above excludes also likely D trends in MN 4, 5 and 6.

It assumes that they will be counteracted by the likely R trends in MN 1 and 7.
So D trends in 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 will be countered by R trends in 1, 7, and 8.  You'd better hope for unprecedented R trends in declining outstate MN then!

Judging by the ground game (the GOP has no money and is barely scraping by while the DFL is loaded and well staffed)...that wont be easy.

Considering I took an arithmetic average of one R-trending district and two D-trending districts, I think that is a fair assumption.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #43 on: October 24, 2016, 07:05:00 pm »

As for MN-1, Rochester and Mankato are textbook examples of cities where Trump will fall through the floor.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #44 on: October 25, 2016, 06:08:11 am »

This same poll has Nolan losing by 8 in 2014.

Also same pollster had Nolan winning by 2 in 2012, won by 9.

Would not be surprised if Trump carries this district but he is not carrying it by 12 points.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #45 on: October 25, 2016, 12:40:34 pm »

District polling is dodgy and SUSA in Minnesota is even worse. Come on people, don't be idiots now.

People read the above. I am right and you are wrong.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #46 on: October 25, 2016, 11:36:32 pm »

District polling is dodgy and SUSA in Minnesota is even worse. Come on people, don't be idiots now.

People read the above. I am right and you are wrong.

This is true of course. I'm just noting even if the poll is correct people are making some ridiculous assumptions.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #47 on: October 25, 2016, 11:40:44 pm »

District polling is dodgy and SUSA in Minnesota is even worse. Come on people, don't be idiots now.

People read the above. I am right and you are wrong.

This is true of course. I'm just noting even if the poll is correct people are making some ridiculous assumptions.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #48 on: October 25, 2016, 11:41:22 pm »

District polling is dodgy and SUSA in Minnesota is even worse. Come on people, don't be idiots now.

People read the above. I am right and you are wrong.

This is true of course. I'm just noting even if the poll is correct people are making some ridiculous assumptions.
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Hammy
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« Reply #49 on: October 25, 2016, 11:51:43 pm »

Out of curiosity since I'm unfamiliar with district trends, what is the importance of this particular one?
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