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  MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12
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Author Topic: MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12  (Read 2788 times)
Torie
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« Reply #50 on: October 26, 2016, 07:37:06 am »

Out of curiosity since I'm unfamiliar with district trends, what is the importance of this particular one?

Assuming the poll is reasonably accurate, it shows a huge trend to the Trump Pub in a more rural working class white CD. If that represents a long term change, and the Pubs get back their lost voters in the Twin Cities wealth belt, then suddenly MN is a toss up state down the road. Don't hold your breath, but that is why the poll attracted a lot of interest I suspect.
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« Reply #51 on: October 26, 2016, 12:54:17 pm »

Out of curiosity since I'm unfamiliar with district trends, what is the importance of this particular one?

Assuming the poll is reasonably accurate, it shows a huge trend to the Trump Pub in a more rural working class white CD. If that represents a long term change, and the Pubs get back their lost voters in the Twin Cities wealth belt, then suddenly MN is a toss up state down the road. Don't hold your breath, but that is why the poll attracted a lot of interest I suspect.
Keep dreaming.  Ths explanation only serves to fill pipes with dreams and dismisses the fact that SUSA's poll in this district has been wildly off for the past two elections. 

Trump will do better in the district because of his trade proposals.  But even if you look at 2014 you'll find Al Franken did very well in the heart of the 8th with 2:1 margins in Duluth and the Iron Range against his GOP opponent in a strong GOP year.

That was at the same time that SUSA polled Republican Mills way ahead of Nolan who went on to win the race.  SUSA did the same thing in 2012 showing Nolan way behind only to see him win.

At the same time... the DFL trend in the Twin Cities has been bigger and longer...having started already back in 2004.  Without reciprocating GOP trends elsewhere the state GOP has no statewide offices, 3/8 congressional districts, and a small majority in the state house which they could easily lose on Nov 8th.  Especially since the MNGOP has no money to spend on these races while their DFL opponents get plenty.

Demographic trends do not favor GOP competitiveness in the future.  The young generation is more diverse and overwhelmingly votes DFL... the same was not true when Gen X was the young generation and we had 20 years with no DFL governor and a GOP led state house and a Republican senator and Republican sec of state.
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« Reply #52 on: October 26, 2016, 01:29:55 pm »

Out of curiosity since I'm unfamiliar with district trends, what is the importance of this particular one?

Assuming the poll is reasonably accurate, it shows a huge trend to the Trump Pub in a more rural working class white CD. If that represents a long term change, and the Pubs get back their lost voters in the Twin Cities wealth belt, then suddenly MN is a toss up state down the road. Don't hold your breath, but that is why the poll attracted a lot of interest I suspect.
Keep dreaming.  Ths explanation only serves to fill pipes with dreams and dismisses the fact that SUSA's poll in this district has been wildly off for the past two elections. 

Trump will do better in the district because of his trade proposals.  But even if you look at 2014 you'll find Al Franken did very well in the heart of the 8th with 2:1 margins in Duluth and the Iron Range against his GOP opponent in a strong GOP year.

That was at the same time that SUSA polled Republican Mills way ahead of Nolan who went on to win the race.  SUSA did the same thing in 2012 showing Nolan way behind only to see him win.

At the same time... the DFL trend in the Twin Cities has been bigger and longer...having started already back in 2004.  Without reciprocating GOP trends elsewhere the state GOP has no statewide offices, 3/8 congressional districts, and a small majority in the state house which they could easily lose on Nov 8th.  Especially since the MNGOP has no money to spend on these races while their DFL opponents get plenty.

Demographic trends do not favor GOP competitiveness in the future.  The young generation is more diverse and overwhelmingly votes DFL... the same was not true when Gen X was the young generation and we had 20 years with no DFL governor and a GOP led state house and a Republican senator and Republican sec of state.

Trump is not your regular Pub candidate.

I've been saying this for a year now - Trump will get a lot of traditionally Dem votes.
This is not reflected in public polls well, because pollsters have bad Pub/Dem demographics filters.

Trump's level of support is better shown in polls on a district level.
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