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  MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12  (Read 2809 times)
mencken
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« on: October 24, 2016, 08:42:51 am »


LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

Outperforming Romney by 17 in MN-8 while underperforming Romney by 12 in MN-3 and underperofrming Romney by 8 in MN-2 suggests Trump will overall roughly match (-1) Romney's performance (assuming that suburban and rural districts are roughly equitable). Losing Minnesota by 9 certainly does not help Trump's cause, but it also suggests that most of these national leads showing Clinton up double digits are bogus.
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mencken
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 03:45:47 pm »


LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

Outperforming Romney by 17 in MN-8 while underperforming Romney by 12 in MN-3 and underperofrming Romney by 8 in MN-2 suggests Trump will overall roughly match (-1) Romney's performance (assuming that suburban and rural districts are roughly equitable). Losing Minnesota by 9 certainly does not help Trump's cause, but it also suggests that most of these national leads showing Clinton up double digits are bogus.

MN is an inelastic D state. This has already been discussed at length in the forum before. MN does not move at a 1:1 ratio with the rest of the nation in either direction, so your extrapolation is not very useful.

The recent SUSA polling seems to suggest significant movement in Minnesota, even taking into account the inherent noisiness of congressional level polling. It is just that the R trend of the rural areas is counteracted by the D trend of the cities.
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mencken
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 05:31:45 pm »

I'll also note the math above excludes also likely D trends in MN 4, 5 and 6.

It assumes that they will be counteracted by the likely R trends in MN 1 and 7.
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mencken
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 06:15:44 pm »

I'll also note the math above excludes also likely D trends in MN 4, 5 and 6.

It assumes that they will be counteracted by the likely R trends in MN 1 and 7.
So D trends in 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 will be countered by R trends in 1, 7, and 8.  You'd better hope for unprecedented R trends in declining outstate MN then!

Judging by the ground game (the GOP has no money and is barely scraping by while the DFL is loaded and well staffed)...that wont be easy.

Considering I took an arithmetic average of one R-trending district and two D-trending districts, I think that is a fair assumption.
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