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  MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12  (Read 2833 times)
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YaBB God
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Posts: 9,751
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« on: October 24, 2016, 08:34:28 am »

If Trump is not winning OH, Trump is not winning MI. If Trump is not winning MI, Trump is not winning WI. If Trump is not winning WI, Trump is not winning MN.

He's not even at the first step of this.
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YaBB God
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Posts: 9,751
United States


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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 09:00:34 am »


LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

Outperforming Romney by 17 in MN-8 while underperforming Romney by 12 in MN-3 and underperofrming Romney by 8 in MN-2 suggests Trump will overall roughly match (-1) Romney's performance (assuming that suburban and rural districts are roughly equitable). Losing Minnesota by 9 certainly does not help Trump's cause, but it also suggests that most of these national leads showing Clinton up double digits are bogus.

MN is an inelastic D state. This has already been discussed at length in the forum before. MN does not move at a 1:1 ratio with the rest of the nation in either direction, so your extrapolation is not very useful.
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