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  MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12  (Read 2807 times)
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snowguy716
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« on: October 24, 2016, 12:26:41 am »

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 01:12:51 am »

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.

so what?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=625b934d-8781-4fe7-a4ff-e9e7141b5a4f

even adjust the Poll as your demand (DEM 34 IND 34 REP 29 )

1. TRUMP: DEM(34%)x6% + REP(29%)x83% + Ind(34%)x49% = 42.77%
2. Hillary: DEM(34%)x86% + REP(29%)x5% + Ind(34%)x25% = 39.19%

TRUMP is still winning +3.58% in MN-8 Tongue


You need to keep adjusting.  2016 cannot be compared to 2014.  But it can be compared more accurately to 2012.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2016, 01:51:19 pm »

Junk. No way Nolan loses now after romping in 2014. SUSA is generally a good pollster but Minnesota is one state they cannot poll.

this. Obviously tender is getting his jollies, though.
Yeah.  It's infuriating.  Tender has done more to ruin my opinion of Austria than any other single person.  He exemplifies the casually racist/misogynistic/homophobic attitude that most Austrians seem to have while claiming moral and ethical superiority over everybody else.

It's no wonder the Germans look down on them the same we we look down on the deep south.

As for the poll:  Mills was up 8 at this point in 2014 according to SUSA and he lost the election.  Now he's up by 4.

The district will swing and trend towards Trump but will elect the same DFLers as they always do otherwise.  Mostly because Trump has protectionist trade policy proposals at a time when the commodity crash and unfair practices by China (which both candidates have condemned) is leaving their taconite plants shuttered.  If the GOP nominates Cruz or Ryan or some other smarmy snobjob in 2020, look for that trend to dry up.

Even so, the Iron Range and Duluth won't be voting for Trump or Mills.  Everyone wants to think the Iron Range is driving this swing.  It is not.

The Republican trend is occurring in the new areas of District 8 that are adjacent to Tom Emmer's 6th district and much closer to where Stuey Mills (with his fancy hair and fancy clothes and fancy house and fancy boat and fancy job and fancy ideas about free markets) lives.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2016, 06:03:43 pm »

I'll also note the math above excludes also likely D trends in MN 4, 5 and 6.

It assumes that they will be counteracted by the likely R trends in MN 1 and 7.
So D trends in 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 will be countered by R trends in 1, 7, and 8.  You'd better hope for unprecedented R trends in declining outstate MN then!

Judging by the ground game (the GOP has no money and is barely scraping by while the DFL is loaded and well staffed)...that wont be easy.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 12:54:17 pm »

Out of curiosity since I'm unfamiliar with district trends, what is the importance of this particular one?

Assuming the poll is reasonably accurate, it shows a huge trend to the Trump Pub in a more rural working class white CD. If that represents a long term change, and the Pubs get back their lost voters in the Twin Cities wealth belt, then suddenly MN is a toss up state down the road. Don't hold your breath, but that is why the poll attracted a lot of interest I suspect.
Keep dreaming.  Ths explanation only serves to fill pipes with dreams and dismisses the fact that SUSA's poll in this district has been wildly off for the past two elections. 

Trump will do better in the district because of his trade proposals.  But even if you look at 2014 you'll find Al Franken did very well in the heart of the 8th with 2:1 margins in Duluth and the Iron Range against his GOP opponent in a strong GOP year.

That was at the same time that SUSA polled Republican Mills way ahead of Nolan who went on to win the race.  SUSA did the same thing in 2012 showing Nolan way behind only to see him win.

At the same time... the DFL trend in the Twin Cities has been bigger and longer...having started already back in 2004.  Without reciprocating GOP trends elsewhere the state GOP has no statewide offices, 3/8 congressional districts, and a small majority in the state house which they could easily lose on Nov 8th.  Especially since the MNGOP has no money to spend on these races while their DFL opponents get plenty.

Demographic trends do not favor GOP competitiveness in the future.  The young generation is more diverse and overwhelmingly votes DFL... the same was not true when Gen X was the young generation and we had 20 years with no DFL governor and a GOP led state house and a Republican senator and Republican sec of state.
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