Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[seb_pard]

Well, tomorrow is primary day. It's a national holiday so there's no shopping malls, cinemas and many other stores open and alcohol selling is forbidden. As mentioned before, one problem is that at 2 pm Chile plays against Germany at the Confederations Cup.

Chile Vamos Primaries


Although Sebastian Piñera said a week ago that they expect 1 million people to vote that is probably an unreachable goal. 808,002 voted in the right primary in 2013 and we don't have a reason to expect a higher participation this year. The candidates had a polemic debate on monday when we saw personal attacks between them (particularly between Ossandon and the rest). The relationship between Ossandon and the rest of Chile Vamos is at its low and if he win I think they would even think to run another candidate as independent.

Is going to be interesting to see the source of support of the candidates. Ossandon is going to be very strong in Puente Alto and some zones where the "popular right" is strong, and Piñera Kast with the traditional right (upper middle class and the wealthy but Kast is going to be stronger with the under-35)



Felipe Kast, Sebastián Piñera, Manuel Jose Ossandon



Frente Amplio

In the Frente Amplio they expect 300,000 people to vote, and I think the Nueva Mayoria are going to be alert on the results. If the turnout is low they are going to attack FA with all they got. During the last weeks we saw a strengthening of Mayol's candidacy and the weakening of Beatriz Sanchez. She is still the favorite but honestly the way she acted the last weeks (and also Revolución Democratica and the Autonomous Left) has left many people dissatisfied with her candidacy. She is trying to appeal to a broader electorate but in the process  the candidacy has lost total coherence. Mayol, on the other hand, is doing a campaign that many on the left had hoped. I don't even like him a lot but he has offered a coherent candidacy that has begun to inspire a sector that had become disenchanted. However, I expect a strong Sanchez victory, she has a much stronger political machine behind her back and she probably has a broader appeal.



Beatriz Sanchez and Alfredo Mayol.





 
 
 
 

[seb_pard]

Pseudo-poll

I'm going to do a summary of the support of my friends and relative.

-My dad is not going to vote, he was undecided between Sanchez and Guillier but in the last week he got disappointed and liked Guillier's program so he is on the Guillier train now.
-My mom, sister and I are going to vote for Mayol. My mom always liked Mayol and she wasn't enthusiastic on Sanchez's candidacy.
-I have 3 other brothers, I really don't know about them, but I don't think they are going to vote.
-My girlfriend is going to vote for Ossandon.
-My best friend and her girlfriend are going to vote for Ossandon too.
-Most of my friends from work and friends from college (my career) and high school are going to vote for Kast, although from what I heard at my job, some are scared by Ossandon's chances and are planning to vote for Piñera.
-One friend from my school is going to vote for Mayol.
-Most of my friends from college (not my career) are going to vote for Sanchez, but most of them are part of Revolución Democratica (former members of NAU, the pre-RD) and even one is pre-candidate for deputy for my district.

[seb_pard]

This is the first election we have in which chileans abroad can vote.

We have results from Australia!

Chile Vamos
Sebastián Piñera - 6 votes (12%)
Felipe Kast - 9 (18%)
Manuel Jose Ossandon- 35 (70%)

Frente Amplio
Beatriz Sanchez - 16 (34.8%)
Alberto Mayol - 30 (65.2%)

[seb_pard]

Important, the results mentioned above are the results from Canberra. The consulates of Sydney and Melbourne have not yet published results (these are not officials, the official results will be published tomorrow along with the internal ones, but from what I read the consulates in the other side of the world are counting).

[EnglishPete]

Important, the results mentioned above are the results from Canberra. The consulates of Sydney and Melbourne have not yet published results (these are not officials, the official results will be published tomorrow along with the internal ones, but from what I read the consulates in the other side of the world are counting).

Reports from twitter

Cristobal Yuraszeck‏ @C_Yuraszeck_  8m8 minutes ago
 Resultados Primarias Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra)
Piñera 93  44%
Kast     69  32,7%
Ossandon 49 23,2%

Chile Vamos 211 votos

Cristobal Yuraszeck‏ @C_Yuraszeck_  4m4 minutes ago
 Resultados Primarias Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra)

Sanchez 79  65,8%
Mayol     41   34,2 %

Total Frente Amplio 120 votos.

[mgop]

Exactly, that is the trade-off (and also one problem is that there's too much pressure for a president to do as many things and reforms as possible without a break).

yeah, in most of europe is even worse, we have president term of 5 years (max 2 terms, can be in a row), and prime minister who has the real power and often isn't elect with majority can rule forever, there is no limit as to office terms of the prime minister.

[mgop]

really isn't smart to have primaries during confederations cup final when chile - germany playing. is that reason why new majority cancelled their primary?

[seb_pard]

really isn't smart to have primaries during confederations cup final when chile - germany playing. is that reason why new majority cancelled their primary?

No, they don't have primaries because the DC decided to go alone to the election (with Goic) and Ricardo Lagos withdraw from the primaries after the PS endorsed Guillier. Actually, not going to the primaries is something unwanted.

It wasn't smart, but as New Majority aren't going to the primaries, they didn't have the pressure to change the date, actually, is better to them.

[seb_pard]

In my commune polls have been merged and as one of the communes with higher participation and where Chile Vamos is stronger, there's long lines in the polls stations.

A picture of the place I vote (from twitter, I will go later)

[seb_pard]

Results from Barcelona:

Third Poll



Second Poll



Good performance from Sanchez

[seb_pard]

Results from Stockholm

[seb_pard]

Full results from Sweden

[seb_pard]

Picture of National Stadium, located in Ñuñoa

[mgop]

croatian lobby seems strong in christian democratic party. they had radomiro tomić and now carolina goić is leader.

[seb_pard]

Also in the Frente Amplio, two of the three deputies from FA are from Croatian descent (Vlado Mirosevic and Gabriel Boric). There's a sizable Croatian presence in the far north and the far south of Chile. I read somewhere that half of the people in Punta Arenas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punta_Arenas) have a Croatian surname (Goic and Boric are from that area, meanwhile Tomic and Mirosevic are from the far north).

[mgop]

frente amplio and cdp are left wing parties. it's nice to see that croatian abroad are not all from ustashe descent, because their diaspora is mostly those who escape after wwii after supporting nazi occupators. anyway good luck against germany today

[seb_pard]

Although in Chile ethnic politics is almost nonexistent I think. Politics here is strong class-based, and you can see politicians from different origins in all parties.

An example are Chileans from palestinian descent, there are half a million and you have high-profile politicians from UDI to the Communist party.

[seb_pard]

frente amplio and cdp are left wing parties. it's nice to see that croatian abroad are not all from ustashe descent, because their diaspora is mostly those who escape after wwii after supporting nazi occupators. anyway good luck against germany today

Mish I didn't know about the Ustashe people

Thank you ahah

[parochial boy]

Judging by the fact that all of the Chileans abroad primaries seem to have a disproportionately high number Frente Amplio compared Chile Vamos votes, is it fair to say that expatriate Chileans tend to lean left?

[seb_pard]

Judging by the fact that all of the Chileans abroad primaries seem to have a disproportionately high number Frente Amplio compared Chile Vamos votes, is it fair to say that expatriate Chileans tend to lean left?

Yes, particularly the ones in Europe and Latin America. During Pinochet's dictatorship more than 200,000 people were exiled, and many went to Mexico, Venezuela, France, Sweden, etc. Although some of them returned others (with their children) decided to stay.

Also there are many chileans studying abroad, and I would think that the ones from the right have a tendency to go to USA and from the left to go to Europe. There are many exemptions but I think theres a pattern.

The first point is the reason the right was opposed to chileans voting abroad.

Edit: A high support for Ossandon in Sweden and Barcelona suggest that some people on the left are voting Ossandon (in order to damage Piñera)

[seb_pard]

Good article from wikipedia about chilean swedes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilean_Swedes

[Lumine]

Great coverage, seb_pard!

Went to vote a couple of hours ago for Felipe Kast, I hope he performs well in the primary.

[seb_pard]

Great coverage, seb_pard!

Went to vote a couple of hours ago for Felipe Kast, I hope he performs well in the primary.

Thanks Lumine!

Polls closed in Punta Arenas. First results:

[seb_pard]

In the rest of the country, polls closed in 35 minutes. Although official results are gonna be announced in a few hours, we could know well the results by the live counting.


If you want to watch the election: http://www.tvn.cl/envivo/

Official results: http://www.servelelecciones.cl

[seb_pard]

Results from France (238 votes):

Chile Vamos
Piñera 22
Kast 20
Ossandon 25

Frente Amplio
Sanchez 101
Mayol 63

Blank and null: 7